Britannia Radio

Reality is beginning to get through and the papers today generally 
are considering likely Tory policies and reactions to the unholy 
shambles they could inherit.

As I have been saying for months there'll have to be cuts  - the 
commentators know this and the more lowly 'hacks' are catching on 
too.  Even those most involved, the potential Tory government are 
beginning to understand too, which is a relief!  (Though whether this 
applies to George Osborne is another matter)

The Tories certainly have a tactical problem and therefore would be 
unwise to spell out any detailed proposals yet for two reasaons.  
Firstly the shambles gets worse by the day and any details given now 
might well not suit the situation when they have the respon sibility 
for it.  SDecondly the Labour party remains a powqerful and 
sophisticated political machine and there is no point in handing them 
political ammunition.

What IS needed now is to spell out the nature and scale of the 
disaster and warn of bad times ahead.  On this Cameron made a good 
start this week.

The 'meejah' as usually go for the headline stuff and are 
concentrating on the top rate of tax.  This tax is a pure political 
gesture as it will not raise any significant extra revenue.   Osborne 
has leapt in with both feet in his mouth and delivered a hostage to 
fortune.  Really the man is 'not fit for purpose' .  He should be 
replaced, preferably by John Redwood, who has a semi-official 
economic post in the party already and talks sense, sense and more 
sense.

I'll post some back-up information later.

xxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
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DAILY  MAlL 21.3.09
Tories will not publish shadow Budget plan because they'll inherit 'a 
complete mess'
By JAMES CHAPMAN

The Tories will not produce a shadow Budget in the run-up to the next 
election, amid deepening alarm about the state of the public finances.
As economists warned borrowing will shoot up to 12.6 per cent of 
national income next year, party sources revealed David Cameron has 
ruled out publishing detailed tax and spending plans.

The decision is likely to be seized on by Labour, which plans to 
repeat claims of the last three election campaigns that the 
Conservatives would slash spending on schools and hospitals.  
[Including Stafford's ? -cs]

But Mr Cameron argues that with massive liabilities hidden from the 
Government's books, the true scale of the economic wreckage he may 
inherit will not be clear until after polling day.

They include more than £1trillion thought to have been poured into 
the banking system, vast sums committed to private finance 
initiatives, and £1trillion for public sector pensions.

Detailed proposals by opposition parties have an unhappy history.
In 1992, Labour undid years of work to change its tax-and-spend image 
by publishing proposals for an increase in the top rate of tax to 50 
per cent and removal of the exemption from National Insurance 
contributions on high earners.

The Tories did not publish a formal shadow Budget for the 2005 
election, but set out plans to increase public spending 2 per cent a 
year in real terms until 2011.

A senior party source said: 'We have in the past gone into elections 
with a lot more detail than we will be going into at this election.

'There will be less this time because of the state of the public 
finances. Obviously we will set out proposals for the economy but the 
reality is if we win we will inherit a complete mess.

'We can't honestly know how bad things will be until we get in and 
look at the books.

'That's the reality.'
========================
TELEGRAPH - - - -  EXTRACTS     21.3.09
1. Leading Article
- Conservatives must promise cuts - and freedom
There was a palpable feeling this week of political battle lines 
being drawn, the shields polished and the swords sharpened for the 
conflict ahead. We may still be a year or more from a general 
election, but now is the time for dispositions to be made and 
strategies to be agreed.

Gordon Brown set out his stall in an interview in which he read the 
last rites over the capitalist system. "Laissez faire has had its 
day," said the Prime Minister, after presiding over the biggest 
economic bust in modern times.

It was like a motorist who had inherited a Rolls-Royce from a late 
uncle and crashed it into a tree declaring that driving was no longer 
to be recommended. But it is certain that Mr Brown and his colleagues 
in the Labour Government feel far more comfortable intervening in the 
economy in the way they are now than when they were ostensibly 
"friends of the City": Mr Brown has hoisted Labour's true colours 
over Downing Street.

There are, then, two powerful weapons in the Tory armoury. There is 
the fact of a titanic economic failure on Mr Brown's watch which, 
while it clearly has an international dimension, has been worsened by 
the policies he adopted while in Number 11. Treasury figures showing 
net borrowing this year to be greater than in 1976, when the IMF was 
called in to bail out the country, are testament to that. The second 
weapon is Labour's reversion to its corporatist instincts, its belief 
in big government and the nanny-knows-best attitude that stifles 
enterprise and initiative.
David Cameron also began to set out his stall this week, with 
speeches largely devoted to public spending and a magazine article in 
which he took to task those who advise him to sit back and wait for 
power to fall into his lap by default.[ - - - - - - - - - - ]

Mr Cameron is right about that. His party has a far bigger electoral 
mountain to climb than many of his supporters appear to appreciate: 
Mr Cameron must give people a positive reason for electing a 
Conservative government, and not just rely upon the country ejecting 
Labour from office. As Charles Moore observes [today] , the Tories 
need to give voters an idea of what is in it for them if the Tories 
win office [ - - - - - - - - - ]

What are the Conservatives offering today? The suggestion that they 
would impose the 45p top rate of tax that Labour favours is not a 
good start and should be reversed. It is hard to understand how 
penalising wealth-creators is going to bring about economic recovery. 
Furthermore, a promise to freeze the BBC licence fee was, frankly, a 
footling announcement in current circumstances.
Mr Cameron needs to be honest about the cuts that will be needed in 
the size of the state and what this will mean for public services - 
not by declaring war, but by setting out what teachers, nurses, 
police officers and the like stand to gain from having the dead hand 
of Whitehall removed from everything they do. Describing this world, 
in which public services are delivered in a different way by the 
state - or not by the state - is the task of political leadership.

  Mr Cameron calls it the "post-bureaucratic age" - hardly a rallying 
cry to quicken the pulse, even though it is about giving people more 
control over their lives, by transferring power from government to 
individuals and communities. This idea is about offering to lead 
people to a better future in which they can flourish; goodness knows, 
the country is crying out for leadership.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-AND ------>
2.David Cameron facing backlash over tax proposals
David Cameron is facing a backlash from grassroots supporters and his 
own MPs over plans to commit to Labour's proposed new higher rate of 
tax for top earners
Some MPs are exasperated that the Conservative leader will not agree 
to stick with the current 40 per cent higher rate that has been in 
place since the Tories introduced it in 1988.  [ - - - - - - - - - ]

Mr Cameron and his senior colleagues have reluctantly agreed not to 
reverse the rise which Labour announced at the Pre Budget Report in 
November. It would see those earning more than £150,000 paying a top 
level of 45p from 2011.

Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, last night became the most senior 
Conservative to question the plan, adding to the pressure on Mr Cameron.
He told the BBC's Any Questions programme that the 45p rise was not 
"economically sensible".The dire state of the economy and the need to 
pay back the record debt levels would govern the thinking of an 
incoming Tory administration,  [ - - - - - - - - - ]

Tim Montgomerie, the editor of Conservativehome.com, the influential 
bellwether for Tory supporters and politicians, said George Osborne 
needed to "get a grip," after the shadow chancellor confirmed 
yesterday's Telegraph story that he would find it difficult to avoid 
raising the tax level to the 45p level promised by Labour.

Mr Montgomerie said: "It is far from clear that the 45p tax rate will 
produce much revenue. It seemed like a politically-motivated tax rise 
when Alistair Darling announced it and it is disappointing to hear a 
Conservative willing to talk of tax rises when Britain's economy is 
already dangerously over-burdened with a complex and heavy burden of 
Labour taxation.
"It may well be that an incoming Conservative government inherits 
such an awful borrowing requirement that tax rises cannot be avoided 
but it is very disappointing to hear the Shadow Chancellor close to 
surrender on the 45p tax band at the same time as being so cautious 
on public spending."

He added that there was now an "instinct" among the party leadership 
to "keep both public spending and taxes at Labour's relatively high 
levels."

But one senior Conservative backbencher told The Daily Telegraph last 
night: "I'm in despair, as are a lot of my colleagues. People are 
puzzled why Cameron is putting the cart before the horse.

"You have got to be more specific about public spending before you 
know how much tax you need to raise."

Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are aware of the potential for irritation 
among core Tory supporters and MPs who believe in a low-tax economy, 
but the pair fear Labour will attack them for potential cuts in 
public services if they do not follow the Government's lead.

However, one Tory MP pointed out that when Nigel Lawson made his bold 
cut to 40p in 1988 it led to an increase in tax receipts and helped 
boost entrepreneurial Britain.

He said: "This isn't really about being bold - it is commonsense. Why 
are we so frightened of what Labour will attack us with? Their 
economic record is in shreds."

Raising the rate would mean around 400,000 people would see their 
income tax bills rise. Currently, about four million people earning 
£39,825 a year pay the top rate.

Rather than tax cuts, Mr Cameron used his speech on Thursday to 
outline how he will make sure the money spent in Whitehall is better 
controlled with the taxpayer getting "more for less".
========================
SKY NEWS 21.3.09 .
British Public Sector Debt 'To Hit £180bn'
British public sector debt is set to balloon to a colossal £180bn as 
the recession worsens in the next financial year, experts have warned.

The prediction by a leading independent forecasting body suggests the 
Government will have to borrow some 12.6% of GDP in 2009/10 to 
counter a rapid surge in unemployment, a sharp increase in spending 
and a plunge in tax receipts.

Borrowing nearly double the amount taken from the public funds this 
financial year would leave the Government a miniscule amount for 
further stimulus efforts, economists from Ernst and Young's ITEM Club 
said.
"The public finances are continuing to deteriorate at an alarming 
rate and as the economy continues to shrink, the outlook is bleak," 
said the ITEM Club.

"Spending will rise sharply over the coming months as unemployment 
surges, while the steep fall in output will continue to reduce tax 
revenues.
"Given the critical state of the public finances, the Chancellor has 
few ways to inject resources into the economy."

ITEM believes Alistair Darling should do what he can to support 
employment while also taking steps to support the UK's manufacturing 
base.

Manufacturers have seen activity slump to its lowest level for nearly 
30 years and a key industry survey has said the majority of firms 
believe there is still worse to come.

The shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Phillip Hammond, said the 
prediction backs up what the Conservative party has been arguing for 
months.

"This is a devastating blow for what little is left of Gordon Brown's 
economic reputation," he said.

"The leading independent economic forecasting body that uses the same 
model as the Treasury has now confirmed what the Conservatives have 
been warning for months - that a second fiscal stimulus package in 
the UK is not affordable."

The gloomy prediction follows this week's figures showing public 
sector borrowing soared to a record £9bn in February.

This has taken borrowing to £75.2bn so far for this financial year, 
the highest since records began in 1993, according to the Office for 
National Statistics.

Meanwhile, UK unemployment figures have revealed the number of 
jobless has breached the two million mark for the first time in more 
than a decade.

But while the borrowing warning suggests there is little scope for 
the Government to pump more money into the economy, the International 
Monetary Fund has led calls for more fiscal stimulus moves to avoid 
an even deeper recession.  [Something's gotta give then!  It ought to 
be spending on pet projects -cs]