Outside the bubble

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Outside the bubble

Last week, the governmentannounced that people from outside the EU moving to the UK to work or study would have to pay £50 extra for visas to help areas struggling to cope with immigration. 

This was immediately condemned by "Westminster insiders", right across parliament, the media and the think tank community, and across all parties. No less than 70 percent of the daily PoliticsHome survey (no link) of senior MPs, journalists and opinion formers across politics rejected the plan. Either it was seen as going too far, or not far enough, or going down completely the wrong track.

Yet, when 1,224 members of the general public were consulted, the results could not have been more different. An overwhelming 83 percent of voters supported the idea. Furthermore, the support was almost exactly the same across Labour, Conservative, LibDem and other supporters. Never, we were told, had the views of the "insiders" contrasted so starkly with the views of the general public.

This comes as no surprise. On a whole range of issues – if the right questions were asked, in the right context – you would find that public sentiment is totally at odds with the views of the political classes. That is one of the reasons why the BNP are doing so well, and are likely to pull seats at the euro-elections.

Most of all though, this indicates that there is something going on, which has not yet been picked up by the polls – much less the chatterati. Another straw in the wind is the ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday. It has Labour closing the gap, with the Tory lead on a mere 11 points, down from a 16-point lead a month ago. 

Doubtless, the Tory lead should be much higher – and perhaps it will climb again. But the chances are the result is not showing voting intentions. There is something much more subtle going on, which is hard to pin down. There is no exact scientific description, other than to say that people are in a "funny" mood. You can sense it. Outside the bubble, things are stirring.

Needless the say - as with the visa tax - the "insiders" will be the last to know what people are really thinking. But they will soon enough find. I suspect they are not going to like it.

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Up, up and away

Later today I shall be flying to Prague for a couple of days in order to talk (in two languages) about blogging and its relevance to the media. Sadly, it is now too late for anyone to give me advice as to what I should say so I shall have to think of it all myself.

If possible I shall blog from the Czech capital but can't promise it as I intend to spend the free hours walking round and sitting in cafes. What else does one do in Mitteleuropa?

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Amateur hour

Another week, another party launch. Last Monday it was the turn of Jury Team, Sir Paul Judge's brainchild (though, quite honestly, I am not sure anybody's brain was much engaged in the process). This event took place in Millbank Tower, rather than One Great George Street, which was something of a mistake. The latter is a much more attractive venue and right in the heart of Westminster. The former is a rather ghastly and characterless structure some distance away from the nearest transport points.

Once again, I compared it to Kilroy-Silk'slaunch of Veritas and once again I had to admit that the buzz was not there. In fact, the media did not seem to be there either, which may have been the fault of the organizers. The time and place of the launch remained something of a mystery till the week-end and this was not a big enough story for journos to drop everything at 24 hours' notice.

Furthermore, it was not clear whether the event was for the media or for potential supporters, members and candidates. The questions certainly came from the group of potentials but there was, as it happens, very little time for questions. Despite assuring us over and over again that this was a new kind of politics that relied on the internet, mobile phones, social chat sites like Facebook and My Space, twitter and all other suchlike activity, Sir Paul and his co-panellists spent an inordinate amount of time explaining various aspects of the enterprise, quoting liberally from the Jury Teamwebsite.

A long posting that describes the launch and muses on what Jury Team stands for (or not) on EUReferendum2.

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