Sunday, March 29, 2009
The Elephant in the Situation Room
The White House said Saturday that President Barack Obama intends to discuss the pending North Korean missile launch with Chinese President Hu Jintao at the G20 summit in London that starts this Thursday.
The announcement, loaded with irony and meaning, cries out for commentary. On the one hand, the United States needs to talk to China about its nuclear-armed, rogue vassal. On the other hand, the U.S. has to be careful when talking about China. Its ancient symbol may be the dragon; but in U.S. eyes, in terms of dealing with North Korea, China is the elephant in the situation room--a great power on which North Korea and the U.S. both depend. The Stalinist/Kimist state would collapse without Chinese support; and so would the U.S. financial system. China is North Korea's most important ally--and America's most important banker. North Korea needs China for political backing, food, fuel, and arms. Washington needs China to bail the U.S. out of the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.
A bizarre game. Beijing is committed to maintaining North Korea (a) as a buffer between China and the U.S. and its ally, South Korea, and (b) as a potential pressure point to deter the U.S. from coming to Taiwan's aid should China try to take the self-ruled island back by force. But Beijing is also committed to keeping the U.S. financially afloat. In other words, China is in too deep with its ally and its adversary to allow either of them to go down. Chaos in North Korea could spill dangerously over into China; a crash of the (effectively insolvent) U.S. financial system would wipe out China's enormous investment in U.S. debt.
Notice the word adversary in the above paragraph. Unlike the U.S. State Department, which has foolishly relied on China to moderate North Korean behavior since its 2006 nuclear test, this reporter has no illusions about China's intentions. It has consistently disappointed Washington with respect to North Korea, and will continue to disappoint.
That said, the time may be ripe for a radical change in China's traditionally close, lips-and-teeth relationship with North Korea. China could at some stage opt for oral surgery--meaning, extraction and replacement of a hopelessly diseased tooth. A Chinese-sponsored coup--the so-called Chinese Solution to the North Korean problem--is possible. It may even be probable if the coming Korean crisis threatens to spin out of control.
A new Korean war, which is also possible, is not in China's interest.
- Andre PachterConfirmed: Iranians in N. Korea for Missile Launch
On Friday, we said:China Confidential analysts say North Korea has probably invited a delegation of Iranian VIPs, including military and intelligence officers, scientists and technicians, to observe its upcoming, long-range rocket launch.
The Times reports:Missile experts from Iran are in North Korea to help Pyongyang prepare for its rocket launch, according to reports.
Continue here.
Amid increasing global concern over the rocket launch, believed by the US and its allies to be an illegal missile launch, Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper claimed today a 15-strong delegation from Tehran has been in the country advising the North Koreans since the beginning of March.
The Iranian experts include senior officials with Iranian rocket and satellite producer Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, the daily said.
The Iranians brought a letter from Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il stressing the importance of cooperating on space technology, it added.
Scroll down to read the China Confidential report, "Will Iranians Observe North Korean Missile Test?"
Monday 30 March 2009
It seems that China Confidential scooped the world.
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