There is beginning to emerge a consensus amongst all the top
financial and economic commentators that the high street banks should
be just that - retail banks for transmission of funds and loans to
the public and small and medium sized businesses compatible with the
savings they can attract.
The excrescences that fastened themselves onto suvch banks in recent
years - the investrment banks - should be separated and if they
prosper bully for them and if they go bust - bad luck.
The commentat0ors may subscribe to this view but the politicians
don't seem to have heard about it and go on making matters worse by
the day.
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TELEGRAPH 20.3.09
It's OK for banks to play roulette - but not with our savings
Lord Turner should have split investment - or 'casino' banking - from
deposit-taking, says Jeff Randall.
Jeff Randall
How difficult is the business of commercial banking? Not very,
according to George S Moore, a former chairman of Citibank. In his
autobiography, The Banker's Life, he wrote: "If you're not actually
stupid or dishonest, it's hard not to make money in banking."
Mr Moore's observation, penned more than 20 years ago, leads us to
infer that, in recent times, some of the world's most powerful
financial institutions have been managed by executives who combine
the intellect of a glowworm with the integrity of Captain Jack Sparrow.
To say that money has been "lost" does not reflect accurately what
has occurred. "Lost" suggests a possibility, however remote, that it
may be found. Not so. The money has been obliterated. Like Monty
Python's parrot, it is no more, it has ceased to be, it has joined
the bleedin' choir invisible.
There was a time when £25 billion was the stockmarket value of an
average British bank. Today, such a sum is more likely to represent
its annual deficit.
Between them, the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group
have dumped £585 billion of "assets" (dodgy loans and devalued
collateral) in a box marked "Toxic Waste" - and we, the taxpayers,
are insuring them.
For context, that's £10 billion more than Alistair Darling said he
would raise from taxes, rates, excise duties and National Insurance
in his 2008 Budget. The scale of the banks' misjudgment of risk
defies comprehension. So, too, does the amount of rope extended to
them by dozy regulators.
Against this backdrop, the Financial Services Authority and the Bank
of England are scrambling to reassert their grip on a system that
nurtured a conspiracy between reckless lenders and irresponsible
borrowers. Between 1997 and 2007, house prices rose on average by 155
per cent, while wages increased by only 18 per cent. Yet right up
until Northern Rock began to crumble, aspirational home-buyers were
being suckered into the property market with 125 per cent mortgages
and loans of six times salary.
When the debt bomb finally exploded, both the FSA and the Bank
suffered massive reputational damage. This week, repair work began in
earnest. On Tuesday, the Bank's governor, Mervyn King, set out his
vision for recovery in a speech to the Worshipful Company of
International Bankers (I promise you, I'm not making it up). The next
day, Lord Turner, the FSA's chairman, unveiled his response to the
banking crisis in a 122-page report.
Despite carefully scripted comments of mutual respect, it's clear
that these organs of rectitude are battling for supremacy in the new
order. In terms of setting out past failures and acknowledging its
role in them, the FSA's mea culpa has been more fulsome than the
grudging acceptance of shortcomings by the Bank. Both, however, seem
like humble flagellants compared with Downing Street's shameless
campaign of self-exculpation.
As a matter of convention, neither the FSA nor the Bank openly
criticises the Government. But for anyone paying attention, the
pointers are unmissable. Lord Turner, in particular, delivered a
damning verdict on the tripartite system of banking regulation,
established by the Prime Minister, that fell apart spectacularly in
the credit crunch's first tremor.
As No 10 tries to rewrite history, let's not forget that at the 2007
Mansion House dinner, Gordon Brown boasted that London's success was
based on "light-touch regulation, a competitive tax environment and
flexibility".
He told an audience of Square Mile grandees: "In 2003, just at the
time of a previous Mansion House speech, the Worldcom accounting
scandal broke. And I will be honest with you. Many who advised me,
including not a few newspapers, favoured a regulatory crackdown. I
believe we were right not to go down that road. we were right to
build upon our light-touch system."
When asked in the press conference if his report consigns Mr Brown's
light-touch approach to the dustbin of history, Lord Turner did not
flinch: "Yes." Among the black ties of the worshipful company, Mr
King was more expansive: "To rely solely on the discretionary
judgment of individual bankers and regulators is asking too much of
human capabilities." We need regulation that joins the dots between
assessing systemic risk and supervising individual banks, the
governor said - "The present system has not delivered that."
The FSA's proposed rules, quite rightly, will require banks to hold
more capital to support risky activity. This will blunt their
capacity for bumper profits in boom times, but should make them more
able to resist meltdown when the economy turns sour. It's hard to
quibble with that.
In addition, Lord Turner proposes dragging the activities of hedge
funds and other non-banking finance houses into the FSA's regulatory
net: "If an activity looks like a bank and sounds like a bank, we
regulate it like a bank." Another sensible suggestion.
But that's about it. The rest of the report is a conflation of missed
opportunities and woolly thinking. For instance, the FSA wants to
examine not just bankers' probity, but also their technical
competence. How will that be done? Where will be the bar of
acceptability? An economics degree? Basic banking qualifications?
What about a GCSE in Adding Up?
As for the FSA's support for a European "super-regulator", don't get
me started.
Lord Turner's most glaring omission is his decision not to impose a
clear regulatory distinction between conventional deposit-taking
institutions and the casino division of financial services, also
known as investment banking. These are the chaps who, when times are
good, enjoy treating other people's money as chips on a roulette table.
Nothing wrong with that, as long as the cash they burn has not been
left for safe-keeping by widows and orphans. But when depositors at
boring Halifax discover that a testosterone-fuelled derivatives
dealer in another part of the group has been punting on the wheel of
unfathomable instruments, is it any wonder that faith in the system
quickly fades?
The state was forced to bail out banks in part because their casino
operations had run amok. Time, then, to cut adrift these bits of the
banking business, and fulfil the prediction made by Michael Lewis,
the bond trader-turned-author, that by the late 2080s the Wall Street
phenomenon of big-shot investment bankers with "interior decorator"
wives will give way to big-shot interior decorators with "investment
banker" husbands.
If they are as clever as they claim, those still in the game will
have no trouble in making vast profits and multi-million pound
bonuses. In which case, good luck to them.
If, however, they lose their trousers when the ball pops in the wrong
hole - tough. No rescues, no bail-outs. They're on their own. After
all, only the stupid and dishonest fail to make money in banking.
Friday, 20 March 2009
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