This is the real 'horns-of-a- dilemma' stuff . The ECB will be chary
of agreeing to anything if it resulted in horrendous legal action,
The ECB biard which could potentially step in has 22 members - 6 of
'officers' and 16 from the eurozone countries. It might be possible
to work out a majority from that based on Italy, Ireland, Greece,
Portugal and Spain - - but who else ?
My guess is that Merkel will stick it out!
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX CS
========================
DEUTSCHE WELLE 4.3.09
POLITICS | -Experts:
Merkel Putting Germany First in Election Year
Domestic interests are beginning to set policy as German Chancellor
Angela Merkel positions herself to vie for re-election in September.
That means disappointments for some of Germany's international partners.
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, together with their preferred
coalition partner the Free Democrats, may be attracting a solid
majority in recent public-opinion polls. But Merkel is surely aware
of how volatile the political situation is in these economically
troubled times.
So the chancellor, experts say, is already realigning her
government's policies to appeal to the home-front. The most recent
example came last weekend, when Merkel led opposition to a proposed
180 billion euro ($226 billion) aid package for eastern European
economies at an EU summit in Brussels.
"The concerns in the German population about jobs and the economic
outlook are huge," Klaus-Peter Schoeppner, the head of polling group
Emnid, told Reuters news agency. "Against that backdrop, I really
don't see a way for Merkel to explain to the voters that Germany must
help out other countries, whether they are in the euro bloc or outside."
Merkel also remained tight-lipped last week when asked whether
Germany would come to the aid of countries like Ireland that have
been hit particularly badly by the global financial crisis.
"It will be very difficult, especially in an election year, to
explain to German voters that they -- or rather their children or
grandchildren -- should pay for the weaknesses of other governments,"
Wolfgang Nowak, the head of a Deutsche Bank think tank, told Reuters.
But Merkel's strategy is also not without risks and ambiguities.
The Opel dilemma
Some foreign experts have said the Germany-first turn in Merkel
policies could damage Germany's standing abroad and end up hurting
the country's own economy.
Germany thrives on exports, and a majority of its products are sold
within the EU and more than 40 percent within the euro zone.
"There needs to be a bit more honesty about Germany's dependence on
others," the head of London's Centre for European Reform, Simon
Tilford, told Reuters. "If a crisis in one euro member spread, then
Germany's trade surplus could vanish and the economy would be in far
deeper trouble than it already is."
Moreover, even in the short term, it's often difficult to determine
which course of action is in the national interest -- as is evident
with the carmaker Opel.
The European subsidiary of troubled US giant GM would like some 3.3
billion euros in aid from Berlin in return for saving the jobs of the
company's 26,000 German employees. [Opel and Vauxhall in the UK are
both part of GM Europe, headquartered in Germany, Are their futures
linked in any way and could a national decision in either country
affect jobs in the other - ? -cs]
But were Merkel's government to agree to such a bail-out, it would
potentially open the floodgates for other companies to argue that
they, too, merited assistance.
Troops for Afghanistan
The economy isn't the only area where the chancellor may have to
disappoint some of Germany's allies.
In particular, Merkel is likely to resist ongoing pressure from the
United States for America's NATO partners to contribute more toward
establishing security in Afghanistan.
In February, Germany agreed to deploy 600 more troops in Afghanistan,
bringing the total number of German forces, stationed in the
relatively peaceful north of the country, available for that conflict
to more than 4,000.
But Merkel flatly rejected the idea that those troops could be called
to serve in the more dangerous southern Afghanistan.
That would risk angering voters at home, something Merkel is keen to
avoid some sixth months before she puts her own political future up
for a vote.
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
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