EVENING STANDARD 27.4.09
Tories can win London for the first time in a generation
Paul Waugh
David Cameron is on course to turn London blue at the next general
election after a Standard poll put the Conservatives 12 points ahead
of Labour.
In a sharp reversal of the 2005 result, at least 14 Labour seats are
set to fall to the Tories, including those of one Cabinet minister
and four other ministers.
London minister Tony McNulty, dogged by an investigation into his
second homes allowance, would lose Harrow East, the YouGov/Standard
survey suggests.
The poll came after one of Mr Cameron's best weeks as Tory leader,
with a rallying cry to his troops at the party's spring conference
yesterday and Labour given a hammering over its Budget.
Mr Cameron warned voters to brace themselves for tight spending under
his administration and pledged a "government of thrift" to reflect
the nation's straitened times.
Gordon Brown was dogged by continuing fall-out from the Budget,
including fresh speculation about his leadership and claims of
Cabinet splits over the 50p supertax.
YouGov found that the Conservatives currently would have the backing
of 45 per cent of Londoners at a general election, compared with 33
per cent for Labour. The Liberal Democrats are on 16 per cent.
The 12-point Tory lead contrasts starkly with the 2005 election, when
Labour had a seven per cent lead in London. Four years ago, Labour
won 39 per cent of the vote in the capital, the Conservatives 32 per
cent and the Lib-Dems 22 per cent. Today's poll equates to a swing of
9.5 per cent and if applied uniformly to every seat under boundary
changes, at least 14 Labour seats would switch directly to the
Tories. Lib-Dem seats of Carshalton, Sutton and Richmond also look
vulnerable.
As a result, for the first time in a generation the Conservatives
would become the largest party in London, with up to 40 of the
capital's MPs.
Among the seats which would fall to the Tories are Brentford and
Isleworth, held by health minister Ann Keen; Tooting, held by
cohesion minister Sadiq Khan; Poplar and Limehouse, held by transport
minister Jim Fitzpatrick, and Harrow West, held by trade minister
Gareth Thomas.
Other seats at risk include Battersea, Dagenham, Croydon Central,
Ealing North, Ealing Acton and Shepherd's Bush, Eltham, Hammersmith,
Hendon and Westminster North. At least two other seats, Finchley and
Golders Green and Enfield North may also fall.
The Tories' dominance in London at a general election would complete
a trio of successes for the party in the capital. They already hold
the largest number of council seats, the highest since the Sixties
and Boris Johnson's victory as Mayor underlined the Conservatives'
new-found strength in the city.
[- - - rest of article not related to the poll - - - - -]
Posts
