Britannia Radio

Further to my details of this poll last night, the Independent, for  
whom the poll was done, has finally got round to making its comments  
and fleshing out the details.   A reminder of the headline figures:-
Conservative---45%- - = +5%
Labour   ---------26%  - = -2%
Liberal Dmcrts 17% -  = -1%
Others------------12%   = -2%

The poll itself,  apart from the crashingly unprofessional 'leading  
question' (see below).  is in line with all the most recent.  It is  
the Independent's interpretation I find naive!

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INDEPENDENT                20.4.09
Tories increase lead to 19 per cent as Labour suffer in wake of Budget

But huge majority want Cameron to explain what he would do for the  
economy as PM

By Andrew Grice, Political Editor

The Conservative Party has stretched its lead over Labour from 12 to  
19 points following last week's Budget, according to the latest  
monthly opinion poll for The Independent.

And in a further blow to Gordon Brown, former Cabinet minister  
Stephen Byers last night launched a stinging attack on the new 50p  
tax rate for the highest earners, saying it had been introduced for  
"cynical political reasons" and in the long term would damage both  
Labour and the economy.

The ComRes survey puts the Tories on 45 per cent (up five points on  
last month), Labour on 26 per cent (down two points), the Liberal  
Democrats on 17 per cent (down one point) and other parties 12 per  
cent (down two points). If repeated at a general election, the  
figures would give David Cameron an overall majority of 186. However,  
the findings suggest that the Tories' advance may be based mainly on  
an anti-Labour protest vote rather than positive support for Mr  
Cameron's party. Only 38 per cent of people believe the Tories have  
the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession, while 49  
per cent do not think so. Although 71 per cent of Tory supporters  
think the party has the right ideas, only about one in five Labour  
and Liberal Democrat supporters agrees.  [Pretty daft observation by  
Mr Grice!  Of course those NOT intending to vote Tory do not say the  
Tories have the right ideas.  If they thought that  they'd be voting  
Tory.  -cs]

A huge majority of people want to know more about Tory policies; by  
79 to 14 per cent, they want Mr Cameron to be clearer about what he  
would do about the economy if he were prime minister. The view is not  
confined to people who do not intend to vote Tory; some 82 per cent  
of Tory supporters want to know more, as do 84 per cent of Labour  
supporters and 83 per cent of Liberal Democrat supporters.  [This is  
another batty comment and question.  To those of us who have done  
such research this question is a "leading question" intending to get  
the answer it did -cs]

The Tories' general approach to the economic crisis is more popular  
than Labour's. By a margin of 55 per cent to 38 per cent, people  
believe the shortfall in the public finances should be met by cuts in  
public spending rather than tax rises. Seven out of 10 Tory  
supporters prefer spending cuts to tax rises, but the figure drops to  
46 per cent of Labour supporters and 42 per cent of Liberal Democrat  
supporters.

By 55 to 35 per cent, people say they do not trust Gordon Brown more  
than Mr Cameron to lead Britain out of recession. The PM is trusted  
by three in four Labour supporters to steer the economy to recovery  
but by only 18 per cent of Tory supporters and 26 per cent of Liberal  
Democrat supporters.

According to ComRes, the Tories are now ahead of Labour in every age  
group and social class and in every region of Britain except  
Scotland. Some 94 per cent of people who voted Tory in the 2005  
general election say they would support the party again now. For  
Labour the figure is 62 per cent and for the Liberal Democrats 68 per  
cent.

Significantly, Mr Cameron is broadening his party's appeal. One in  
five (21 per cent) of people who backed Labour in 2005 and 24 per  
cent of those who voted Liberal Democrat have now switched to Mr  
Cameron's party – up from 12 per cent and 16 per cent in March  
respectively.

Some 63 per cent of those who regard themselves as natural Tories say  
they are "absolutely certain" to vote at the next election, compared  
to 48 per cent of Labour identifiers and 51 per cent of natural  
Liberal Democrats.

Yesterday, Mr Cameron challenged Mr Brown to call a referendum on the  
European Union's proposed Lisbon Treaty. "The Lisbon Treaty is hugely  
significant," he said. "It is, by all accounts, a constitution. That  
is why we are making this such an important issue at these European  
elections [on 4 June]."

ComRes telephoned 1,003 adults between 24 and 26 April. Data were  
weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British  
Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk