Britannia Radio

I'm getting increasingly depressed by all the Green Shoot merchants.  
Even this depressing news item has to nod to the supposedly  better 
figures from the US and UK.    Here we have the father and mother of 
a debt problem and Wednesday should show it.  In America Obama's 
optimism got a sharp and immediate raspberry.

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TELEGRAPH 18.4.09
Eurozone exports fall by 24pc
Exports from the eurozone countries tumbled by more than a quarter in 
February, raising fears that GDP across its 16 member nations could 
shrink more sharply than the 1.6pc last quarter.

By Rowena Mason

Economists are concerned that GDP forecasts for the region are still 
too optimistic, as it has yet to show any initial signs that the 
financial crisis may be easing - unlike the UK and the US. [See? -cs]

Falling global demand for goods has hindered exports from the 
eurozone countries, dropping back to ?99.2bn (£87.4bn), down 24pc on 
the same period last year. Imports fell by 21pc to ?101.2bn, 
according to the European Union's statistics office, Eurostat.

The eurozone typically exports more goods than it imports, but last 
year's ?1.7bn trade surplus swung to a ?2bn deficit.  [Totally 
unthinkable up to now -cs]

"I'm not sure the weakness of Europe has been fully recognised yet," 
said Jonathan Loynes, head of European research at Capital Economics. 
"There was a general perception that it would hold up relatively 
well, as it did not have the same overvalued housing market as the UK 
and US. But now the collapse in trade means countries like Germany 
could see GDP fall by 6pc - even worse [than ?] the UK."

World trade is expected to decline by 13.2pc this year, according to 
estimates from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and 
Development.

The euro also fell sharply against the dollar yesterday after a 
speech from European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet in 
Tokyo failed to give any reassurances that the eurozone's economy was 
ready for recovery.

Mr Trichet warned that this year would be "very difficult" for 
[the?]  region, but would not give details of the ECB's measures 
aimed at reviving the economy.

Economists expect easing policies and a rate cut to be announced next 
month, but in the meantime, Mr Trichet's comments pushed the euro to 
a one-month low against the dollar of $1.3065.

"Though Mr Trichet's comments provided few surprises, he also seemed 
to suggest he does not want to cut rates further after May," said 
Takahide Nagasaki, chief foreign exchange strategist at Daiwa 
Securities.
"Such a stance may not work in the euro's favour as it casts doubt on 
the eurozone's economic recovery prospects."