Britannia Radio

In Brussels they are confidently predicting results because the 
electoral system is so rigged and anti-democratic that they do not 
have to predict - they know.

A eurosceptic country like Britain does present a bit of a problem 
but Burston & Marsteller's predictions are a right giggle.  They 
haven't learned a thing from the shambles they made last time.  They 
haven't read the detailed tables in recent polls, they haven't 
watched local by-election results. What they write is only worth 
reading to see how awful some pundits can be!

I'm not going to make silly predictions because nobody has started to 
campaign yet which - to say the least - is a bit weird!  For example 
we have absolutely no idea what the Tories are going to do about the 
Lisbon Treaty or about any "renegotiations" (will there be any?) or 
who they propose to team up with in the parliament.  Hague put his 
toe in the water last week but said absolutely NOTHING!

Labour have been even more secretive.  It would seem that the only 
people likely to vote will be those protesting about something else 
altogether.

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EU OBSERVER    14.4.09
EU elections heading for record low turnout
LEIGH PHILLIPS

With European Parliament elections fast approaching, EU citizens are 
less interested in the poll than ever before in a situation that 
could see the abstention rate across the bloc hit a record 66 percent.

A soon to be released survey from the European Commission's polling 
service, Eurobarometer, shows that interest in the election is weak 
right across the union, reports France's Liberation daily.

The newest EU citizens, from member states that joined in 2004 and 
2007, are as indifferent as their "old European" cousins, who have 
decades of experience in EU electoral listlessness.

Only 17 percent of Poles intend to vote in the 4 to 7 June elections 
- the lowest figure of all member states, reports the survey, carried 
out between January and February this year.

Ascending the ladder, some 21 percent of Austrians intend to vote in 
the polls, followed by 22 percent of Britons, 24 percent of 
Portuguese and a quarter of Slovaks.

Just over a quarter of Czechs, Hungarians and Spaniards say they will 
make a detour out of their day to head to the polling station, while 
just under a third of Italians and Bulgarians will do likewise (30% 
and 31%).

Germany, the most populous of the EU states, is likely to see 43 
percent of its citizens vote, according to Eurobarometer. France and 
the Netherlands, home to the rejectionists of the EU's Constitutional 
Treaty, come close to half the voting public, with both nations on 47 
percent. Some 48 percent of Cypriots and Greeks and 49 percent of 
Swedes plan to go to the urns.
Only in Malta (56%), Denmark (56%), Luxembourg (62%) and Belgium 
(70%) will a majority of citizens of voting age cast a ballot in the 
parliamentary elections. In the latter two countries, voting in 
elections is mandatory.

The sole silver lining from the survey is that the record abstinence 
appears to be no indication of growing euroscepticism, but rather a 
feeling that the vote will not make any difference. Just 20 percent 
of those surveyed cited rejection of the construction of a European 
community as their reason for not voting.

However, some 64 percent said they were not intending to vote because 
they had little knowledge of the role of MEPs while 62 percent said 
it was because voting would not change anything.

Just say No to abstinence
Meanwhile, the European Commission is hoping to convince young people 
to say "No" to abstinence.

The EU executive has hooked up with MTV to launch an EU-wide campaign 
similar to the music channel's celebrated "Rock the Vote" initiative 
in the US to urge youngsters to take part in the June poll.

The European version, a somewhat less boisterous "Can You Hear Me, 
Europe?" will see a series of TV spots running regularly on the 
network's various European stations as well as an interactive website 
and publicity stunts in EU national capitals.

Voter participation is particularly low in the EU, with only 40 
percent of young people casting a ballot in the 2004 parliamentary 
elections and 45.5 percent of people overall.
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UK POLLING REPORT 12.4.09
U
European election predictions
by Anthony Wells

Burson-Marsteller have again commissioned Simon Hix and Michael Marsh 
(this time joined by Nick Vivyan) to carry out a prediction of the 
European Parliament election results. The whole prediction has a 
rather fancy website    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/
2081#comments.

Hix and Marsh produced a similar prediction for the 2004 elections, 
which predicted that the EPP-ED would manage 285 seats, the PES 217 
seats and the ELDR 73 seats. UEN 28, Greens 40 and the then EDD would 
be eliminated. In the UK they predicted that the 2004 result would be 
CON 32, LAB 27, LD 12, SNP 2 and PC 2, with the Greens and UKIP 
loosing all their seats. Of course, that didn't happen. In fact UKIP 
didn't lose all their seats, they tripled them to 12 seats.

This time round they have a rather fancier model, which takes into 
account the latest opinion polls, the last national election, who is 
in government, how close the last national election was to the last 
european election. They also factor in whether the party is an "anti-
European" party, who apparently tend to do better in EU elections and 
which they presumably hope will deal with the "UKIP effect".

For the over predictions and the prediction in each of the other 
member states visit the website.    For the UK, Hix, Marsh and Vivyan 
predict that the number of seats for each party will be CON 27(nc), 
LAB 22(+3), LDEM 13(+1), UKIP 4(-8), SNP 2(nc), PC 1(nc), GRN 0(-2)