Understanding the “peace process”
By Ted Belman
What follows are two articles I wrote six years ago regarding the genesis of the Roadmap. Essentially it was negotiated between the State Department and the Saudis in the lead up to the Iraq War. The deal was Iraq for Palestine. Thomas Friedman introduced the Saudi Plan as coming from King Abdullah but in reality it was the State Department’s baby. It was included in the Roadmap as a recital - quite innocuous really. Sharon vigorously objected to its inclusion but Powell and Rice said it was non-negotiable. The obvious reason was that the State Department was committed to the Saudis to make it happen.
The Roadmap went nowhere because of Arab non-compliance. It reached a dead end when Hamas was elected.
So the Roadmap was abandonned in favour of Annapolis which was intended to lead to an agreement on core issues by bypassing the pre-conditions requiring an end of Arab violence and incitement.
This too failed as the parties couldn’t reach agreement. So the US has now abandonned it too in favour of imposing the Saudi/State Department Plan.
The Arabs are in full agreement and underscored it by ignoring the Roadmap and supporting Res 242 and Res 338. They interpret these, with US concurrence, as requiring full withdrawal and a just solution to refugee problem. No need for them to stop the violence and the incitement.
This is the plan that people like Power and Jones have been promoting for years. It is also what the Iraq Study Group under Baker had in mind.
In the articles below you will note that a regional solution was articulated by Bush seven years ago. That’s exactly what is happening now.
According to Haaretz,
- A decision has been made in Washington to follow a regional peace plan that will be based on the Arab peace initiative, bolstered by international security guarantees for Israel.
Under this plan, Arab states will proceed with normalization of their ties to Israel in parallel with progress in the negotiations to be held on the Palestinian and Syrian tracks.
In the beginning it was all about getting consent from Saudi Arabia to the invasion of Iraq. Now its about getting cooperation from Iran.
As the Obama administration has been saying, acheiving peace (at Israel’s expense), is in the national interest of the U.S.
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A Unifying Theory (April 3/03)
Palestine for Iraq
We’ve been had. After Bush’s June speech, we rejoiced. We were home free. No such luck.
Bush has made a Faustian bargain. He has sold America’s soul, Israel, to the devil, Saudi Arabia. What is that bargain? I’ll give you Palestine, you give me Iraq.
Lately we have been reading that the US has been planning a regime change in Iraq for over a year now. To accomplish this they felt they needed the Arabs on board. To achieve this end, the following otherwise incomprehensible actions were taken by the US administration.
- Israel was restrained from defending itself after the spate of suicide bombings last spring. Arafat was protected at all costs.
- The groundwork was laid for the Road Map by saying that the Palestinians `needed “hope” and by arguing the need for international observers.
- The so-called Saudi Peace Plan was taken out of the drawer and released through the NY Times, which the administration did not reject out of hand.
- The administration started to make speeches, which reaffirmed that the settlements were an obstacle to peace.
- Bush made his June “vision speech” in which he sugar coated his vision of a Palestinian State with all kinds of safeguards for Israel, to make it easier for Israel to swallow the poison.
- In September the Quartet released the first draft of the Road Map.
- The Road Map is negotiated while the US attempted to get UN approval for the War. France and Germany proved intransigent but not the Arabs.
- The final draft was released in December but not published ostensibly because of the Israeli elections and then until a government was formed. The administration also wanted Labour in the government of Israel so that it would be easier to get Israel to travel the Road Map. Sharon tried hard to avoid it but didn’t succeed.
- The Road Map was also held back as a trump card to ensure Arab support for the War which had not yet started.
- As part of their bargain, the Sate Department attempted to get agreement on ending the terror but didn’t succeed. No matter.
- Throughout this period of time when it was negotiating with Saudi Arabia the State Department came often to the defence of Saudi Arabia describing them as a friend of the US. In fact their representative was invited to Bush’s ranch.
- Much was made of the number of times Sharon met with Bush. Sharon rightly assumed great coordination of aims and often remarked that they saw “eye to eye”. But unfortunately he was blind or a liar.
- As cover for the bargain, Blair became the fall guy and started pushing for a Palestinian state and the Road Map in his assigned role. In fact this was a smoke screen for the deal that had been cut with the Arabs.
- The Administration made it appear that they were paying a debt to Blair to hide the deal with the Arabs.
- While the whole world was rejecting the war, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt came out in support of regime change. Saudi Arabia allowed the use of the US airbase in their country and allowed over flights and safe passage for men and equipment. Kuwait was allowed everything. It was incomprehensible until now.
- The US kept stalling approval of the nine billion in aid Israel was requesting so that it would have leverage to get Israel to comply.
- The defection of Turkey and the rejection by France and Germany made Arab cooperation all the more important and necessary.
- Then the State Department kept Saudi Arabia off the list of intolerant religious countries and put Israel on the list of abusers of human rights.
- The Palestinians did their part by agreeing to reforms and even appointing Abu Mazem as PM. Never mind, he was a long time crony of Arafat’s, that he did not have full authority, that he was in favour of “resistance” and was a holocaust denier, it was good enough for the US and they started a campaign to whitewash him. He was just Arafat’s fig leaf.
- Once Arab cooperation was assured and the war launched, the gloves came off of the Road Map. Nothing else can explain why the Road Map is to be released before the dust settles in Iraq.
- It was irrelevant that the UN and the EU were given a role after screwing the US on the UN approval because the Road Map was a concession to the Arabs and not France.
There you have it. This is not a conspiracy theory. It is a unifying theory.
The Road Map must be resisted at all cost.
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Perfecting the Unifying Theory (April 4/03)
Further to my Unifying Theory, one important element was not factored in and as a result, the theory made Bush out to be nefarious or diabolical. It did not account for the fact that Bush and the neo cons were friendly to Israel as a alley and fellow democracy. So this too has to be factored in.
In Bush’s speech of June ’02, wherein he articulated a “vision of two states”, he prefaced his remarks by saying,
- For too long, the citizens of the Middle East have lived in the midst of death and fear. The hatred of a few holds the hopes of many, hostage. The forces of extremism and terror are attempting to kill progress and peace by killing the innocent. And this casts a dark shadow over an entire region. For the sake of all humanity, things must change in the Middle East.
The last line is the most important. Everything must be seen in the broader context of creating a new Middle East.
- I’ve said in the past that nations are either with us or against us in the war on terror. To be counted on the side of peace, nations must act. Every leader actually committed to peace will end incitement to violence in official media, and publicly denounce homicide bombings. Every nation actually committed to peace will stop the flow of money, equipment and recruits to terrorist groups seeking the destruction of Israel — including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah. Every nation actually committed to peace must block the shipment of Iranian supplies to these groups, and oppose regimes that promote terror, like Iraq. And Syria must choose the right side in the war on terror by closing terrorist camps and expelling terrorist organizations.
How much more specific can he get.
- Leaders who want to be included in the peace process must show by their deeds an undivided support for peace. And as we move toward a peaceful solution, Arab states will be expected to build closer ties of diplomacy and commerce with Israel, leading to full normalization of relations between Israel and the entire Arab world.
We must also resolve questions concerning Jerusalem, the plight and future of Palestinian refugees, and a final peace between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel and a Syria that supports peace and fights terror.
We all cheered at these remarks but focused on Israel rather than the Middle East.
On March ’03, on the eve of war, Bush made another key speech in which he opened with,
- We have reached a hopeful moment for progress toward the vision of Middle Eastern peace that I outlined last June.
[…]And the Arab states must oppose terrorism, support the emergence of a peaceful and democratic Palestine and state clearly that they will live in peace with Israel.
Those of us who vigorously oppose the Road Map and the Quartet’s involvement view these things in the context of the present Middle East. Bush on the other hand sees them in the context of a new Middle East.
The vision of two states is part of a larger vision of a peaceful Middle East. There won’t be the first without the latter.
In this context, the majority of Israelis and Jews would accept the vision even if it meant something close to the ’67 borders so long as there was truly a New Middle East.
Bush realizes, that to effect the changes he has in mind for the Middle East, he must be “evenhanded” in the solution to the Palestinian problem. This essentially means a deal along the lines of the Barak offer or maybe Taba. But rest assured, it will be done in the context of Bush’s Middle East vision. I think, I hope.
Even today Aluf Benn reports in Ha’aretz
- A communique received in Jerusalem from the American administration this week says the United States is operating with strong resolution to neutralize the Iraqi threat to Israel. After the war, the message continued, the United States will deal with other radical regimes in the region - not necessarily by military means - to moderate their activities and fight terrorism.
These current and future U.S. operations will also serve Israel, the American administration says, but have caused tensions between the United States and the Arab world. Israel, the American message says, must play its part to help ease these tensions by taking action with regard to settlements in the territories.
So he makes it clear Israel is being sacrificed to appease the Arabs. This has nothing to do with rights, or blame. It just makes America’s job easier .
The problem as I see it, is that until such time as the US establishes the new ME, Israel has to proceed on trust even to the point of finalyzing the Palestinian state in 2 years. Since in my theory, the Road Map is linked to the New Middle East, it should really be a Road Map for ME peace of which the resolution of the Palestinian/Israel conflict is a part. Surely, it is not too much to ask that progress be made on all fronts at the same time.
I believe that Israel will resist this Road Map in the hope it won’t be imposed and enforced. Israel would far prefer a more favourable solution on borders, Jerusalem, refugees, and security. But if Bush resists all pressure from Congress and Senate, then Israel should try to have it proceed as the neighborhood improves.
Now you know the end game. Its plain for all to see. My updated unifying theory is correct and now complete. Bush has been working toward that vision since 9/11. Everything points to it.
Ted Belman
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