While we wait the press give us (1) The crisis -3 and a bit (Sun);
(2) MPs Brown's handout - 5; (3) Others - cloning -1; showbiz -1;
crime -1.
xxxxxxxxxxx cs
=============================
FRONT PAGES - Main Headlines 22.4.09
TELEGRAPH - Bail-out costs us £7,000 each
MAIL - Budget wake-up call for Darling
INDEPENDENT - 'I can clone a human being'
GUARDIAN - The gravy train must stop
- PM orders expenses shake-up
EXPRESS - Greedy MPs new rip-off
TIMES - MPs to get extra £150 a day for turning up.
METRO - Gravy train is arriving for MPs
SUN - White van man can land two grand by canning van - Darling's
budget boost
MIRROR - Hammer killer in new link to Milly
FINANCIAL TIMES - Darling to concede UK is deep in the red
STAR - Talent Susan: The Movie
HERALD (Glasgow) - Brown demands expenses shake-up
TELEGRAPH 22.4.09
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
1. Blog - IAIN MARTIN
Budget 2009: disgraceful budget will impede recovery
After all the hype that the Chancellor had been thinking of his place
in history, and looking approvingly in the direction of Denis Healey
and Jim Callaghan, he has delivered a dangerous budget which is
detrimental to the national interest.
In the late 1970s his predecessors decreed that we could not spend
our way out of that economic crisis. They introduced cuts and gave it
relatively straight to the country.
In contrast, Darling said we must borrow our way through this (an
incredible £175 billion this year and £173 billion next). He has, he
says, discovered some extra efficiency savings but they are piddling
in comparison to the scale of the problem.
At the same time, he has gone back to the worst of old Labour's
record and plans to "soak the rich". Taxes will soar for those
earning above £100,000, thanks to changes to allowances, a raid on
the pensions of the better off who have saved sensibly and a new 50p
tax band.
This is quite mad. The sums raised will be negligible because
avoidance will soar. But the big message it sends out about Britain
is that it is not a place that values individuals who create wealth,
or aspire to at some point. In time that will colour the views of
foreign investors, to say nothing of the depressing impact on high-
earners themselves who currently pay high enough taxes already.
Just when Britain needs all the wealth creators it can get, the
government is positioning the country as anti-enterprise. Brilliant
idea.
And for what? So that Labour's client state can get through the next
few years without suffering more than a modest adjustment in its
circumstances.
This is a bad, bad budget and the next government's first task will
be to wipe it from the record, start again with an honest assessment
of what Britain can afford and look for ways to encourage businesses
and individuals to create growth and wealth.
Darling had an opportunity to redeem his Chancellorship today. He
flunked it.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
2. Gilt market and sterling rocked by Darling's borrowing in Budget 2009
UK buyers of Britain's debt took fright today as Alistair Darling
announced in his Budget that Government borrowing will soar as the
recession deepens.
By Amy Wilson
In a widely-anticipated Budget , the Chancellor announced that the
Government will issue £220bn of gilts, or government bonds, in the
current financial year. That dwarfs the previous record set last year
of £146.4bn and is more than the £180bn expected by investors.
"It's come as a huge shock that we've got £220bn coming," said John
Wraith, of RBC Capital. "Beyond that the financial forecasts for the
next few years are incredibly worrying."
The Government may be forced to issue as many bonds for the next two
years and possibly longer, Mr Wraith said, because the Chancellor's
forecasts are "overly optimistic." Net debt is forecast to rise to
68pc of gross domestic product in 2010, climbing to 79pc in 2013/14.
Prices for government debt maturing in 10 years tumbled on the back
of the news, driving the yield to 3.39pc.
Sterling also fell sharply after the news and was down almost 2 cents
against the dollar in early afternon trading. The FTSE 100 also
declined during the Budget speech.
Britain will have a deficit of £175bn, Mr Darling said today in his
Budget speech, the equivalent of 12pc of GDP. Economists had forecast
a deficit of around £160bn.
The state of the public finances is crucial for the direction of the
pound, according to Barclays Capital's chief sterling strategist,
Paul Robinson.
"The sustainability of government finances, so important in the 1970s
and 1980s, has hardly been an issue in recent years," Mr Robinson
said. "Now it is of crucial importance. In our view, it is the factor
that is most likely to lead to another sharp depreciation of sterling."
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
3. Business leaders lambast Alistair Darling for raising taxes on
rich in Budget 2009
Business leaders have accused Alistair Darling's Budget of being
"blind to reality" and damaging the UK's position as a global
financial centre.
By Graham Ruddick
Richard Lambert, director-general of the influential CBI, said: "The
key question for this Budget was whether it set out a credible and
rigorous path for restoring the public finances to health. The CBI's
preliminary judgement must be that it does not."
The Institute of Directors added that the increase in the top rate of
income tax to 50pc "sends out all the wrong signals".
Miles Templeman, the director-general, said: "The increase will
affect very few IoD members but it will have a damaging impact on the
wider economy and undermine the UK's attractiveness as a place to
invest."
[- - - - - - - - ] Mr Lambert warned that his GDP forecasts and plans
for reducing national debt are "optimistic".
"By pushing out the horizon for balancing the books as far as 2018
the Government is running too much of a risk," he added. He called
some of the proposals to help business, such as the cash-for-bangers
scheme, as "worthwhile micro measures".
The chief economist of the British Chambers of Commerce, David Kern,
also questioned the Chancellor's forecasts.
"The Chancellor's Budget rightly acknowledges that the official GDP
forecasts in the November pre-Budget Report were far too optimistic.
The recession is clearly much deeper than previously envisaged. The
new GDP growth forecast, of -3.5pc in 2009, is realistic.
"But, his expectation of 1.25pc economic growth in 2010 is too
optimistic, even if growth resumes towards the end of the year. More
significantly, his assumptions of very rapid growth for a number of
years from 2011 onwards are unrealistic.
"The outlook for unemployment is bleak, and we still expect a peak of
some 3.2m next year. It is doubtful if the measures announced today,
however welcome, will alleviate significantly the jobless situation."
The Federation of Small Businesses said that SMEs "have largely been
ignored".
=============================
FINANCIAL TIMES 22.4.09
Headlines to articles of Comment
Martin Wolf: On a wing and a prayer
Only Alistair Darling, most emollient of politicians, could manage to
make this Budget seem boring. The economic figures make a horror
story. But it could, of course, be even worse -
Philip Stephens: the next government's straitjacket
In a curious way, the significance of Mr Darling's grim litany of bad
news lay more in its description of the economic and political
straitjacket that awaits whoever takes the helm in Downing Street
after the election
Muted response to Darling's business measures
The Budget produced a muted response from business as Alistair
Darling, the chancellor, sought to make the most of a modest fiscal
stimulus
Tax changes hit high earners hardest
High earners will be badly bruised after Alistair Darling raised the
highest rate of income tax to 50% for those with salaries over
£150,000 and restricted the tax-free allowance for people earning
over £100,000
Biggest spending squeeze since 1945
The biggest and most sustained cut in spending on public services for
many years is in prospect as the chancellor virtually halved his
plans for spending growth after the next election
=============================
THE TIMES 22.4.09
UK slump will not end in 2010, says IMF
Alistair Darling's Budget forecast that the economy will return to
modest growth next year is contradicted by the IMF
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Alistair Darling's Budget forecast that the economy will revive next
year and return to modest growth came under heavy fire today as the
International Monetary Fund warned that Britain's slump will drag on
into 2010.
The IMF dealt a severe double blow to the Chancellor's new forecasts
barely an hour after they were unveiled.
It said that the recession this year will be even deeper than Mr
Darling's grim new prediction, and that his hope for a recovery next
year is set to be dashed.
The Chancellor was forced to admit in the Budget that the UK economy
is now set to shrink this year by 3.5 per cent, in its sharpest
plunge since the Second World War, conceding that his November
forecast for a decline of only about 1 per cent was wildly optimistic.
But the IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, said today that it
expected an even more brutal slump by 4.1 per cent over 2009, marking
a drastic downgrade from its January projection for GDP to drop by
2.8 per cent.
In a further embarrassing blow to Mr Darling, the authoritative
report also challenges his high-stakes bet that growth will rebound
by the end of the year, in time for the next election.
The Chancellor's Budget figures envisage a return to surprisingly
robust growth of 1.25 per cent in 2010. But the IMF said that it
expected the recession to persist, with the economy shrinking in 2010
by another 0.4 per cent. [This gap of 1.65% in estimates is
absolutely critical and is an enotrmous blow to Darling's whole
strategy -cs]
In January the IMF had predicted that Britain would eke out out
meagre growth of 0.2 per cent next year in a feeble recovery but it
now believes that even this is too much to expect.
The challenge to Mr Darling's forecasts from the IMF came only a day
after the Washington-based global watchdog backed away from estimates
of the likely eventual cost of Britain's banking bailouts.
In a separate report on Tuesday, the fund had raised its estimate of
the eventual bill for British taxpayers for rescuing UK banks from
£130 billion to about £200 billion.
Both figures compared with a £60 billion tipped to be outlined by the
Chancellor in the Budget.
But in a highly unusual move that sparked suspicions it had been put
under pressure by the Treasury or Downing Street, late last night the
IMF abruptly said that the £200 billion figure reflected "old data"
that it had mistakenly published and suddenly reverted to its
previous £130 billion total. [This is DOUBLE Darling's figure -cs]
The flip-flop was presented by the IMF in Washington as a correction
of an accidental error. But it came after a day of briefing at
Westminster by senior Treasury officials that the IMF figures were
wrong.
Government sources deny that pressure was put on the IMF to back down.
It will be scant consolation for Mr Darling that the main driving
forces behind the headlong plunge in Britain's economy that the IMF
predicts through this year and into next are global factors, and are
also tipped to batter all of the UK's leading competitors.
In a bleak assessment today, the Washington-based fund made steep
cuts to its forecasts for this year and next for every leading
Western economy.
Even on the IMF's dire new projections, Britain is far from the worst-
performing of the big industrial economies, with the fund predicting
that Germany will now endure a 5.6 per cent slump this year, with the
GDP across the eurozone as a whole plummeting by 4.2 per cent.
[Germany has massive reserves having enticed 'Prudence' away from
Gordon Brown who jilted her! -cs]
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
1. Blog - IAIN MARTIN
Budget 2009: disgraceful budget will impede recovery
After all the hype that the Chancellor had been thinking of his place
in history, and looking approvingly in the direction of Denis Healey
and Jim Callaghan, he has delivered a dangerous budget which is
detrimental to the national interest.
In the late 1970s his predecessors decreed that we could not spend
our way out of that economic crisis. They introduced cuts and gave it
relatively straight to the country.
In contrast, Darling said we must borrow our way through this (an
incredible £175 billion this year and £173 billion next). He has, he
says, discovered some extra efficiency savings but they are piddling
in comparison to the scale of the problem.
At the same time, he has gone back to the worst of old Labour's
record and plans to "soak the rich". Taxes will soar for those
earning above £100,000, thanks to changes to allowances, a raid on
the pensions of the better off who have saved sensibly and a new 50p
tax band.
This is quite mad. The sums raised will be negligible because
avoidance will soar. But the big message it sends out about Britain
is that it is not a place that values individuals who create wealth,
or aspire to at some point. In time that will colour the views of
foreign investors, to say nothing of the depressing impact on high-
earners themselves who currently pay high enough taxes already.
Just when Britain needs all the wealth creators it can get, the
government is positioning the country as anti-enterprise. Brilliant
idea.
And for what? So that Labour's client state can get through the next
few years without suffering more than a modest adjustment in its
circumstances.
This is a bad, bad budget and the next government's first task will
be to wipe it from the record, start again with an honest assessment
of what Britain can afford and look for ways to encourage businesses
and individuals to create growth and wealth.
Darling had an opportunity to redeem his Chancellorship today. He
flunked it.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
2. Gilt market and sterling rocked by Darling's borrowing in Budget 2009
UK buyers of Britain's debt took fright today as Alistair Darling
announced in his Budget that Government borrowing will soar as the
recession deepens.
By Amy Wilson
In a widely-anticipated Budget , the Chancellor announced that the
Government will issue £220bn of gilts, or government bonds, in the
current financial year. That dwarfs the previous record set last year
of £146.4bn and is more than the £180bn expected by investors.
"It's come as a huge shock that we've got £220bn coming," said John
Wraith, of RBC Capital. "Beyond that the financial forecasts for the
next few years are incredibly worrying."
The Government may be forced to issue as many bonds for the next two
years and possibly longer, Mr Wraith said, because the Chancellor's
forecasts are "overly optimistic." Net debt is forecast to rise to
68pc of gross domestic product in 2010, climbing to 79pc in 2013/14.
Prices for government debt maturing in 10 years tumbled on the back
of the news, driving the yield to 3.39pc.
Sterling also fell sharply after the news and was down almost 2 cents
against the dollar in early afternon trading. The FTSE 100 also
declined during the Budget speech.
Britain will have a deficit of £175bn, Mr Darling said today in his
Budget speech, the equivalent of 12pc of GDP. Economists had forecast
a deficit of around £160bn.
The state of the public finances is crucial for the direction of the
pound, according to Barclays Capital's chief sterling strategist,
Paul Robinson.
"The sustainability of government finances, so important in the 1970s
and 1980s, has hardly been an issue in recent years," Mr Robinson
said. "Now it is of crucial importance. In our view, it is the factor
that is most likely to lead to another sharp depreciation of sterling."
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
3. Business leaders lambast Alistair Darling for raising taxes on
rich in Budget 2009
Business leaders have accused Alistair Darling's Budget of being
"blind to reality" and damaging the UK's position as a global
financial centre.
By Graham Ruddick
Richard Lambert, director-general of the influential CBI, said: "The
key question for this Budget was whether it set out a credible and
rigorous path for restoring the public finances to health. The CBI's
preliminary judgement must be that it does not."
The Institute of Directors added that the increase in the top rate of
income tax to 50pc "sends out all the wrong signals".
Miles Templeman, the director-general, said: "The increase will
affect very few IoD members but it will have a damaging impact on the
wider economy and undermine the UK's attractiveness as a place to
invest."
[- - - - - - - - ] Mr Lambert warned that his GDP forecasts and plans
for reducing national debt are "optimistic".
"By pushing out the horizon for balancing the books as far as 2018
the Government is running too much of a risk," he added. He called
some of the proposals to help business, such as the cash-for-bangers
scheme, as "worthwhile micro measures".
The chief economist of the British Chambers of Commerce, David Kern,
also questioned the Chancellor's forecasts.
"The Chancellor's Budget rightly acknowledges that the official GDP
forecasts in the November pre-Budget Report were far too optimistic.
The recession is clearly much deeper than previously envisaged. The
new GDP growth forecast, of -3.5pc in 2009, is realistic.
"But, his expectation of 1.25pc economic growth in 2010 is too
optimistic, even if growth resumes towards the end of the year. More
significantly, his assumptions of very rapid growth for a number of
years from 2011 onwards are unrealistic.
"The outlook for unemployment is bleak, and we still expect a peak of
some 3.2m next year. It is doubtful if the measures announced today,
however welcome, will alleviate significantly the jobless situation."
The Federation of Small Businesses said that SMEs "have largely been
ignored".
=============================
FINANCIAL TIMES 22.4.09
Headlines to articles of Comment
Martin Wolf: On a wing and a prayer
Only Alistair Darling, most emollient of politicians, could manage to
make this Budget seem boring. The economic figures make a horror
story. But it could, of course, be even worse -
Philip Stephens: the next government's straitjacket
In a curious way, the significance of Mr Darling's grim litany of bad
news lay more in its description of the economic and political
straitjacket that awaits whoever takes the helm in Downing Street
after the election
Muted response to Darling's business measures
The Budget produced a muted response from business as Alistair
Darling, the chancellor, sought to make the most of a modest fiscal
stimulus
Tax changes hit high earners hardest
High earners will be badly bruised after Alistair Darling raised the
highest rate of income tax to 50% for those with salaries over
£150,000 and restricted the tax-free allowance for people earning
over £100,000
Biggest spending squeeze since 1945
The biggest and most sustained cut in spending on public services for
many years is in prospect as the chancellor virtually halved his
plans for spending growth after the next election
=============================
THE TIMES 22.4.09
UK slump will not end in 2010, says IMF
Alistair Darling's Budget forecast that the economy will return to
modest growth next year is contradicted by the IMF
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Alistair Darling's Budget forecast that the economy will revive next
year and return to modest growth came under heavy fire today as the
International Monetary Fund warned that Britain's slump will drag on
into 2010.
The IMF dealt a severe double blow to the Chancellor's new forecasts
barely an hour after they were unveiled.
It said that the recession this year will be even deeper than Mr
Darling's grim new prediction, and that his hope for a recovery next
year is set to be dashed.
The Chancellor was forced to admit in the Budget that the UK economy
is now set to shrink this year by 3.5 per cent, in its sharpest
plunge since the Second World War, conceding that his November
forecast for a decline of only about 1 per cent was wildly optimistic.
But the IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, said today that it
expected an even more brutal slump by 4.1 per cent over 2009, marking
a drastic downgrade from its January projection for GDP to drop by
2.8 per cent.
In a further embarrassing blow to Mr Darling, the authoritative
report also challenges his high-stakes bet that growth will rebound
by the end of the year, in time for the next election.
The Chancellor's Budget figures envisage a return to surprisingly
robust growth of 1.25 per cent in 2010. But the IMF said that it
expected the recession to persist, with the economy shrinking in 2010
by another 0.4 per cent. [This gap of 1.65% in estimates is
absolutely critical and is an enotrmous blow to Darling's whole
strategy -cs]
In January the IMF had predicted that Britain would eke out out
meagre growth of 0.2 per cent next year in a feeble recovery but it
now believes that even this is too much to expect.
The challenge to Mr Darling's forecasts from the IMF came only a day
after the Washington-based global watchdog backed away from estimates
of the likely eventual cost of Britain's banking bailouts.
In a separate report on Tuesday, the fund had raised its estimate of
the eventual bill for British taxpayers for rescuing UK banks from
£130 billion to about £200 billion.
Both figures compared with a £60 billion tipped to be outlined by the
Chancellor in the Budget.
But in a highly unusual move that sparked suspicions it had been put
under pressure by the Treasury or Downing Street, late last night the
IMF abruptly said that the £200 billion figure reflected "old data"
that it had mistakenly published and suddenly reverted to its
previous £130 billion total. [This is DOUBLE Darling's figure -cs]
The flip-flop was presented by the IMF in Washington as a correction
of an accidental error. But it came after a day of briefing at
Westminster by senior Treasury officials that the IMF figures were
wrong.
Government sources deny that pressure was put on the IMF to back down.
It will be scant consolation for Mr Darling that the main driving
forces behind the headlong plunge in Britain's economy that the IMF
predicts through this year and into next are global factors, and are
also tipped to batter all of the UK's leading competitors.
In a bleak assessment today, the Washington-based fund made steep
cuts to its forecasts for this year and next for every leading
Western economy.
Even on the IMF's dire new projections, Britain is far from the worst-
performing of the big industrial economies, with the fund predicting
that Germany will now endure a 5.6 per cent slump this year, with the
GDP across the eurozone as a whole plummeting by 4.2 per cent.
[Germany has massive reserves having enticed 'Prudence' away from
Gordon Brown who jilted her! -cs]
BBC ONLINE 22.4.09
UK jobless total in new increase
The number of vacancies fell in the first three months of 2009
The number of people out of work in the UK rose another 177,000 to
2.1 million between December and February.
The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose a smaller-than-
expected 73,700 last month to 1.46 million.
The annual rate of growth in average earnings was 0.1% in the three
months to February, down from 1.7% previously.
The unemployment rate was 6.7% for the three months to February, up
from 6.1% the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) said.
"Obviously in the claimant count there is a significantly smaller
rise, but we certainly can't say that this represents any turnaround.
It's far too early for that," said Ross Walker from RBS Financial
Markets.
'Collapse in earnings'
The level of growth in average earnings was the lowest since records
began in 1991, and was mainly due to the drop in bonuses in the
financial sector, according to the ONS.
"The headline grabber there is the collapse in average earnings. We
all thought it would fall significantly, but it has fallen much much,
more sharply," Mr Walker added.
There were 462,000 job vacancies in the first three months of the
year, which was down 68,000 from the previous quarter and the lowest
figure since records began in 2001.
"Sadly, these appalling unemployment figures will get much, much
worse before they get better. There's still a lot of pain in the
pipeline," said Alan Tomlinson, from the insolvency practitioners
Tomlinsons.
"The impact of the recession on smaller businesses is especially
severe. Company failures in this vital sector are still increasing
and are likely to do so for some time yet, putting more and more
people out of work."
UK jobless total in new increase
The number of vacancies fell in the first three months of 2009
The number of people out of work in the UK rose another 177,000 to
2.1 million between December and February.
The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose a smaller-than-
expected 73,700 last month to 1.46 million.
The annual rate of growth in average earnings was 0.1% in the three
months to February, down from 1.7% previously.
The unemployment rate was 6.7% for the three months to February, up
from 6.1% the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) said.
"Obviously in the claimant count there is a significantly smaller
rise, but we certainly can't say that this represents any turnaround.
It's far too early for that," said Ross Walker from RBS Financial
Markets.
'Collapse in earnings'
The level of growth in average earnings was the lowest since records
began in 1991, and was mainly due to the drop in bonuses in the
financial sector, according to the ONS.
"The headline grabber there is the collapse in average earnings. We
all thought it would fall significantly, but it has fallen much much,
more sharply," Mr Walker added.
There were 462,000 job vacancies in the first three months of the
year, which was down 68,000 from the previous quarter and the lowest
figure since records began in 2001.
"Sadly, these appalling unemployment figures will get much, much
worse before they get better. There's still a lot of pain in the
pipeline," said Alan Tomlinson, from the insolvency practitioners
Tomlinsons.
"The impact of the recession on smaller businesses is especially
severe. Company failures in this vital sector are still increasing
and are likely to do so for some time yet, putting more and more
people out of work."
In the last 24 hours I've wasted my life pointing out that people who
deal in statistics can't add up or use logic! First Ipsos-MORI, then
the IMF here and also here government 'spinning ' on mortgages.
For the IMF to make such a mistake is a staggering event! Darling's
boyos will doubtless claim a bonus. But the revised IMF figure still
looks like being double the Treasury's figure and is still absolutely
horrendous! The IMF up to now has an infinitely better track
record. We'll have to see!
xxxxxxxxxxxx cs
ps. I've added a piece on government spinning on mortgages and house
sales.
=============================
ANANOVA 22.4.09
IMF 'retracts bailout bill claim'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has withdrawn a claim that
Britain faces a bill for almost £200 billion for the bank bailout,
the Treasury said.
A Treasury spokesman said that the figure was "wrong" and had been
issued in error.
Chancellor Alistair Darling will issue his own estimate of the cost
of the bailout when he delivers the Budget.
"The Budget will make a prudent provision for potential losses from
banking interventions in line with our cautious approach to
forecasting the public finances," the spokesman said.
A spokesman for the IMF later acknowledged that a mistake had been
made and that as a result it was reviewing one of the tables in its
Global Financial Stability Report. He added that the cost of UK
measures had been incorrectly stated as 13.4% of GDP instead of the
correct 9.1%. [This has the effect of reducing the estimayed cost
from £195 bn to the still horrific £133bn -cs]
The disclosure of the mistake is potentially a huge embarrassment for
the IMF which acts as the world financial watchdog.
Reports have suggested that Mr Darling's own estimate will be closer
to £60 billion. [That seems even LESS likely! -cs]
The Treasury spokesman said that it will be based on "a detailed
understanding of the schemes, stress testing and takes account of the
fees".
The IMF estimate said that the cost of support measures would run to
13.4% of the UK's entire economic output of £1.46 trillion in 2008.
Only struggling Ireland would pay more as a percentage of its output
to rescue its banks, it said.
It had appeared to delivers a fresh blow to Mr Darling on the eve of
a Budget, which will unveil soaring public debt and the worst year
for the economy since the end of the Second World War.
=========================
BBC ONLINE 22.4.09
Mortgage lending in seasonal rise
Mortgage lending picked up in March, according to figures from the
Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
Gross lending stood at £11.5bn, up by 16% from February but still
less than half the amount lent in March 2008.
Earlier HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) figures showed there had been a
40% jump in home sales in March. [seasonal rise again with 'spin'
added -cs]
The CML [not government -cs] said the March increase was a normal
seasonal rise and warned that lending and house sales would remain
low for the "foreseeable future."
Despite the jump in March, the lending figures for the first three
months of the year were the lowest for any quarter since the start of
2001.
[Elsewhere the common headline is "Mortgage lending up 16%" . Most
papers don't point out that it always rises when spring arrives -cs ]
deal in statistics can't add up or use logic! First Ipsos-MORI, then
the IMF here and also here government 'spinning ' on mortgages.
For the IMF to make such a mistake is a staggering event! Darling's
boyos will doubtless claim a bonus. But the revised IMF figure still
looks like being double the Treasury's figure and is still absolutely
horrendous! The IMF up to now has an infinitely better track
record. We'll have to see!
xxxxxxxxxxxx cs
ps. I've added a piece on government spinning on mortgages and house
sales.
=============================
ANANOVA 22.4.09
IMF 'retracts bailout bill claim'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has withdrawn a claim that
Britain faces a bill for almost £200 billion for the bank bailout,
the Treasury said.
A Treasury spokesman said that the figure was "wrong" and had been
issued in error.
Chancellor Alistair Darling will issue his own estimate of the cost
of the bailout when he delivers the Budget.
"The Budget will make a prudent provision for potential losses from
banking interventions in line with our cautious approach to
forecasting the public finances," the spokesman said.
A spokesman for the IMF later acknowledged that a mistake had been
made and that as a result it was reviewing one of the tables in its
Global Financial Stability Report. He added that the cost of UK
measures had been incorrectly stated as 13.4% of GDP instead of the
correct 9.1%. [This has the effect of reducing the estimayed cost
from £195 bn to the still horrific £133bn -cs]
The disclosure of the mistake is potentially a huge embarrassment for
the IMF which acts as the world financial watchdog.
Reports have suggested that Mr Darling's own estimate will be closer
to £60 billion. [That seems even LESS likely! -cs]
The Treasury spokesman said that it will be based on "a detailed
understanding of the schemes, stress testing and takes account of the
fees".
The IMF estimate said that the cost of support measures would run to
13.4% of the UK's entire economic output of £1.46 trillion in 2008.
Only struggling Ireland would pay more as a percentage of its output
to rescue its banks, it said.
It had appeared to delivers a fresh blow to Mr Darling on the eve of
a Budget, which will unveil soaring public debt and the worst year
for the economy since the end of the Second World War.
=========================
BBC ONLINE 22.4.09
Mortgage lending in seasonal rise
Mortgage lending picked up in March, according to figures from the
Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).
Gross lending stood at £11.5bn, up by 16% from February but still
less than half the amount lent in March 2008.
Earlier HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) figures showed there had been a
40% jump in home sales in March. [seasonal rise again with 'spin'
added -cs]
The CML [not government -cs] said the March increase was a normal
seasonal rise and warned that lending and house sales would remain
low for the "foreseeable future."
Despite the jump in March, the lending figures for the first three
months of the year were the lowest for any quarter since the start of
2001.
[Elsewhere the common headline is "Mortgage lending up 16%" . Most
papers don't point out that it always rises when spring arrives -cs ]
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