Sunday, 10 May 2009

2012-13: NOAA predicts solar cycle 24 ”weakest since 1928” with $1 trillion damages in worst case

May 9, 3:43 PM
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NASA Hathaway: Solar cycles 23-24 (1995-2020)

In a report funded by NASA, NOAA (U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) has issued a formal, public prediction that “A new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928 and its peak is still four years away, after a slow start last December, predicts an international panel of experts led by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. Even so, Earth could get hit by a devastating solar storm at any time, with potential damages from the most severe level of storm exceeding $1 trillion.”

The prediction, published in a report atwww.spaceweather.com, continues: “The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a daily sunspot number of 90. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.”

The NOAA solar panel’s predictions appear to lessen the potential risk to the high energy electrical grid system of 2012-13 Solar flares set out in a Jan. 2009 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report.  According to a New Scientist article on the NAS report,  “The [Jan. 2009] NAS report outlines the worst case scenario for the US. The ‘perfect storm’ is most likely on a spring or autumn night in a year of heightened solar activity - something like 2012.  Around the equinoxes, the orientation of the Earth's field to the sun makes us particularly vulnerable to a plasma strike.”

The 2012-13 solar maximum

The NOAA panel has conditionally predicted the 3rd calmest solar cycle since 1755.  The report on its findings states, “The panel also predicted that the lowest sunspot number between cycles—or solar minimum—occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24. If the December prediction holds up, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum.

“An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun since the last prediction has led the panel to a consensus that the next cycle will be ‘moderately weak’.”

cont       http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-2912-Seattle-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m5d9-201213-NOAA-predicts-solar-cycle-24-weakest-since-1928-with-1-trillion-damages-in-worst-case

 

Posted by Britannia Radio at 16:11