Friday, 8 May 2009

The Beeb was so excited tonight at having a S C O O P  by  persuading 
the great Joanna Lumley to beard Mr Woolas, immigration minister, in 
an unscheduled debate with the cameras right up the nostrils of two 
contenders that it got the real story of the night absolutely wrong.  
It put out an absurd, wildly over-optimistic, story about how well 
the banks are doing, amd how the banking crisis may be over.   But 
the facts they based their story on are precisely those in the 
Financial Times (and the rest of the financial press) who 
surprisingly didn't get it wrong too!

The BBC 6 o'clock was armed with the usual expensive graphics and 
commentator who radiated good cheer while the world was actually 
falling apart.  Heigh Ho!.  Robert Peston came in  at the end and was 
clearly bemused by what was going on in the studio but managed to 
spoil the party at the end by pointing cold water on the party by 
pointing out that (a) the banks are not out of trouble, and still 
losing money ; and (2) that even if the banks were a bit better the 
recession is going to get worse.

Heigh-Ho What IS the BBC for ?

xxxxxxxxxx cs


PS Lumley won and was none to pleased to find that all Mr Woolas's 
and Brown's promises boiled down to was an undertaking  to "review 
the matter.  She was not inconsiderably displeased.

=========================================================
FINANCIAL TIMES 7.5.09
Impairments rise at Barclays and Lloyds
By Adam Jones
[nb "Impairments" merely means that the loans in question have gone  
wrong because people cannot repay them on the due date = large LOSSES  
-cs]
Profits at the retail and commercial banking arm of Barclays almost  
halved in the first three months of 2009 as British consumers and  
businesses struggled to maintain loan repayments.

Lloyds Banking Group, the rival UK bank, also said on Thursday that 
it expected its impairment charges on corporate loans to rise by more 
than half in 2009 as a result of economic weakness.

The disclosures come amid concern that banks' activities in the "real 
economy" might displace investment banking as a source of woe this year.
Barclays, which had previously announced a strong start to 2009, said 
first-quarter pre-tax profit rose 15 per cent to £1.37bn. Income 
increased 42 per cent to a record £8.15bn.

Analysts at Credit Suisse said pre-tax profit was "a little less than 
we had hoped for", but added that they were nonetheless minded to 
increase their 2010 profit forecast for the financial services group.

Barclays shares, which had plummeted to little more than 50p in 
January, continued their upward trajectory, rising 11/4p to 2891/4p 
in afternoon trading, but Lloyds plunged 6.8 per cent to 1051/2p.

Barclays' first-quarter profit increase was driven, as expected, by 
strong growth at Barclays Capital, its investment banking arm, where 
pre-tax profit rose 361 per cent to £907m, partly because of the 
acquisition of Lehman Brothers' US arm, which accounted for about one-
third of BarCap's income over the period.

However, BarCap's strong profit performance was offset by the 
commercial and retail banking arm, whose profits fell 45 per cent to 
£586m, even though income rose 16 per cent.

The profit decline was partly due to higher impairment charges linked 
to increased delinquency on consumer loan and overdraft payments in 
the UK. Impairment charges also rose sharply in its commercial 
banking operations, "tracking trends in corporate performance", as 
Barclays put it.

They also surged at its Barclaycard credit card unit, where credit 
limits have been cut and new borrowing refusals have increased.
Across the group as a whole, impairment charges were £2.3bn, up from 
£1.3bn in the first quarter of 2008, although Barclays said this was 
not unexpected. To a large extent, the rise reflected ongoing credit 
market writedowns, increased lending and currency movements.

In February, Barclays had said that it expected an annualised loan 
loss rate for 2009 equivalent to between 1.3 per cent and 1.5 per 
cent of its portfolio, compared with 0.95 per cent in 2008. It said 
it now expected the eventual 2009 figure to be at the higher end of 
this range.

In its own, much-briefer trading update, Lloyds blamed "rising 
unemployment, reduced corporate cash flows, the continuing impact of 
lower house prices and falls in the value of commercial real estate" 
for the significant rise in impairment levels in its lending portfolios.

It anticipated further corporate defaults during the rest of the 
year, notably in British and Irish commercial real estate. It also 
reiterated that it expected to report a pre-tax loss for 2009.

Alex Potter, a Collins Stewart analyst, said that Lloyds could 
conceivably be loss-making for the coming 18-24 months.

Barclays' profits included an accounting gain of £279m that actually 
arose from a decrease in the traded value of its own debt. However, 
this was less than the £703m it booked in this fashion in the first 
quarter of 2008.

Trading in April had been generally in line with February and March 
as opposed to the exceptionally-good performance in January, Barclays 
added