Gas deal between Turkey and European Union breaks Russian stranglehold
• Ankara reaches agreement with EU on new pipeline
• Caspian energy bonanza could be unblocked
A worker collects coal in Bulgaria this January during one of Moscow's 'gas wars'. Photograph: Petko Momchilov/AP
The European Union and Turkey have struck a ground-breaking gas pipeline deal unlocking a potential energy bonanza in the Caspian basin after more than a year of deadlock, according to senior EU officials.
The agreement, to be signed in Ankara on 25 June, represents a major boost to the EU's ill-starred Nabucco pipeline project, which is intended to transport natural gas to Europe from central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East, and is the key to breaking the Kremlin's stranglehold over Europe's gas imports. "This is a complete breakthrough," said a senior EU official involved in the tough negotiations with Turkey. "The Turks have accepted our terms. There is no conditionality."
The €9bn Nabucco project is at the centre of a contest pitting Russiaagainst the EU and involving Turkey, Germany, Austria, Azerbaijan and the authoritarian regimes of central Asia in the effort to secure Europe's gas needs while curbing the hold Moscow and the gas monopoly Gazprom have over the supply lines. The case for Nabucco is debated, but was reinforced by Russia's gas war with Ukraine in January, which caused havoc with Gazprom supplies to eastern and central Europe. There had been similar disputes in 2006 and 2007.
Nabucco, stretching more than 2,000 miles from Turkey's eastern border to Europe's main gas hub outside Vienna, would be the main route for pumping gas to Europe not controlled by Gazprom. But the plan had faltered over deadlock between the EU and Turkey over the pipeline transit agreement. More than half the pipeline is to be located in Turkey, making it the gatekeeper of Europe's energy supplies.
Ankara has been driving a hard bargain, insisting on collecting a "tax" on the gas being pumped and demanding 15% of the transit gas at discounted prices. This, say EU officials and the six-company consortium that is to build and run the pipeline, would render Nabucco financially unviable.
The stalemate was broken at a summit in Prague last Friday between the EU and the countries involved. "The 15% demand has gone," Andris Piebalgs, the EU commissioner for energy, told the Guardian. "We've agreed on cost-based transit. We're very close to a conclusion." A senior Czech official organising the summit likened the negotiations to "bargaining in an Istanbul souk", while an EU envoy to the region worried that "nothing is done until it's done".
But the European commission president, José Manuel Barroso, said President Abdullah Gül of Turkey assured him the deal would be signed within weeks. "That's what President Gül told me," he said.
The Turkish leader indirectly linked any Nabucco deal with progress on Ankara's negotiations with Brussels on joining the EU. The negotiations are being blocked by Greek Cypriots, while several big EU states are quietly happy to see Turkey's EU bid frozen. But Barroso and others insisted that Ankara was not setting conditions for a Nabucco agreement.
The EU imports about one-third, or 140bn cubic metres, of its gas from Russia. The "southern corridor" – Nabucco and two other pipelines – is supposed to pump 60bn cubic metres a year, or 10% of requirements by 2020, bypassing Russia.
Building of the Nabucco pipeline has been delayed while the projected costs have soared, leading critics to describe the scheme as a pipedream. But the Prague summit and the imminent pact with Turkey appear to have resurrected the project.
The consortium that is planning to build and manage a pipeline stretching more than 2,050 miles from Turkey's eastern border through the Balkans to Baumgarten, east of Vienna, is headed by OMV, the Austrian oil and gas firm, with four national energy corporations – Botas of Turkey, Bulgargaz of Bulgaria, Transgaz of Romania, and MOL of Hungary, plus RWE, the German energy group that joined the consortium last year even though its government prefers collaboration with Gazprom and opposes Nabucco. All six are grouped in Nabucco Gas Pipeline International.
As well as Nabucco, the Europeans spoke specifically for the first time about supporting the building of a pipeline under the Caspian Sea connecting Turkmenistan and central Asia to Azerbaijan. The central Asian gas was up for grabs, said the senior EU official, and if Europe did not get there first, it would go to Russia or China.
If Nabucco is to happen, it will initially need the gas from Azerbaijan's BP-run Shah Deniz-2 field. But officials in Brussels view Turkmenistan, with its vast gas deposits, as the key to its longer-term viability.
The Russians are pressing the central Asians and Azerbaijan hard to try to put a stop to Nabucco and retain control of all the supply routes to the west. The Turkmens attended the Prague summit, but declined to commit, apparently deciding to try to play the Russians off against the Europeans.
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