The newspapers comment on the surveys they carry today the top-line
figures of which I gave last night under almost the same "subject"
heading !
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx cs
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SUNDAY TIMES 10.5.09
Brown set for election wipeout
Analysis shows the Gordon Brown is heading for a humiliating third
place in next month's local elections
David Smith, Isabel Oakeshott and Jonathan Oliver
GORDON BROWN, battered by revelations over ministerial expenses and a
series of embarrassing climbdowns, is heading for a humiliating third
place in next month's local elections.
An analysis for The Sunday Times by Colin Rallings and Michael
Thrasher, the election experts, shows Labour is trailing the Liberal
Democrats as well as the Tories as it heads into the June 4 elections
in 34 English local authorities.
They predict Labour will lose all four of the councils it controls
and half the 500 seats it is defending. Senior aides have warned
Brown that if Labour comes third in the elections next month, a
challenge to his leadership is almost inevitable.
It comes as more Labour ministers and backbenchers faced embarrassing
disclosures about taxpayer-funded expenses. Hazel Blears, the
communities secretary, faces questions over the sale of a flat she
had designated as a second home. She made a profit of £45,000 on the
sale but paid no capital gains tax.
Kitty Ussher, a work and pensions minister, carried out a £20,000
makeover on her run-down Victorian townhouse using taxpayer-funded
expenses.
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts the Tories on 43%, up two
points on last month, with Labour down seven on 27% and the Liberal
Democrats up two on 18%. It predicts Labour will get barely more than
a fifth of the vote in European parliament elections, also to be held
on June 4.
The prime minister suffered a new blow this weekend as a top Labour
official, who had played a key role in Brown's elevation to No 10,
labelled him a "disaster". Peter Watt, former party general
secretary, said: "At the moment the government appears to have
absolutely no direction."
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Watt lifts the lid on the
prime minister's behaviour behind closed doors, accusing him and
Harriet Harman, his deputy, of sacrificing colleagues for political
gain.
"Publicly, Gordon talks about values and his moral compass, but
actually the way he conducts himself behind the scenes is anything
but that - it's brutal," Watt said.
"This is Gordon's politics: when things go wrong, you find someone to
blame and you blame them hard. That's what he does. The last 10 years
is littered with people who've been cast asunder."
Brown is expected to carry out a reshuffle immediately after the
polls to repair his authority. Among ministers forecast to be demoted
or axed are Jacqui Smith, the home secretary, and Blears.
Party whips believe an "unholy alliance" has been created from left-
wing rebels and Blairite former ministers, which could lead to a
challenge to the prime minister if the elections are disastrous for
Labour. Another poll, for The Mail on Sunday, puts Labour on 23%, 22
points behind the Tories.
One whip said: "There are strong signs that they are talking to each
other about what they should do after June 4."
Up to 120 Labour MPs - half of the backbench party - are expected to
sign a letter this week calling for Brown to reconsider plans to part-
privatise the Royal Mail. The petition, to be signed by members from
all wings of the party, will be one of the biggest acts of rebellion
since Labour came to power.
Brown is expected to make an emergency statement to the parliamentary
Labour party in an attempt to persuade MPs that he has a coherent
plan for the party's recovery.
His aides worry that if the "solid centre" of the party begin to fear
for their seats at the general election, support for a contest could
snowball. Alan Johnson, the health secretary, remains the favourite
to succeed as a "stop the rot" candidate.
[remainder of long article relates to expenses scandal -cs]
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MAIL on SUNDAY 10.5.09
Brown the most unpopular PM since polling began - and half want him
to quit now
By GLEN OWEN
Dire ratings: Gordon Brown is doing a bad job, according to 72% in
the survey
the lowest level since opinion polls began in 1943, a devastating new
survey has revealed.
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday says the party is supported by
just 23 per cent of voters, a stunning 22 points behind the
Conservatives' figure of 45 per cent. The Lib Dems were on 17.
If the poll's findings were repeated in a General Election, Tory
leader David Cameron would have a majority of 220 seats, beating Tony
Blair's majority of 179 after his landslide victory in 1997. The
Tories would gain 237 seats, of which 200 would come from Labour.
The figures make particularly bleak reading for Gordon Brown: even
with Michael Foot as its leader, Labour support did not fall below
23.5 per cent.
The results of the poll, which was carried out on Thursday and
Friday, could have been even worse for Mr Brown. The scandal over
MPs' expenses erupted on Friday, so only half of those polled were
aware of it when they gave their opinions.
Although all parties have been tarnished by the revelations over
expenses, Labour has borne the brunt of public anger.
The survey shows that, for the first time, a majority of voters - 52
per cent - believe Mr Brown should stand down as Prime Minister. If
he does go, Health Secretary Alan Johnson is favourite to take over.
He and Justice Secretary Jack Straw are joint top of a list of
potential successors in our survey - with 11 per cent each - but Mr
Johnson is the runaway favourite among Labour MPs to win a leadership
contest.
His image has been enhanced by the expenses scandal: his claims were
largely limited to modest rental costs for a second home in his Hull
[Hull ?? Surely 'Kirkaldy' -cs] constituency.
The shocking news for the Prime Minister is reflected in his dire
personal ratings.
The proportion of people who think he is doing a 'very good' or
'fairly good' job is just 24 per cent, compared with 53 per cent for
Mr Cameron. A whopping 72 per cent think Mr Brown is doing a 'fairly
bad' or 'very bad' job.
Labour's ratings are the lowest since modern opinion poll techniques
were introduced in 1943. Before Mr Brown took over, the party's
lowest rating - 23.5 per cent - came in 1983 when Michael Foot led a
party riven with in-fighting.
When Labour won in 1997, its share of the vote was 43 per cent. But
its opinion-poll rating was 33 per cent when Mr Blair left No10 in 2007.
Mr Brown had a brief honeymoon period, hitting 43 per cent in
September 2007, but apart from a brief 'Brown bounce' after last
autumn's banking -----crisis, his popularity has gone downhill ever
since.
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. BPIX interviewed 2,246 people on Thursday and Friday.
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