Result of the European Elections Poll

Result of the European Elections Poll

Iain Dale 12:30 PM

An amazing 1,700 of you have voted in the European Elections poll I launched last night. Bear in mind that when I have done surveys previously, Tory support has usually been at around 60%.

Here's how you will be voting in the Euro elections...

Conservative 53%
UKIP 15%
BNP 8%
LibDem 6%
Labour 4%
SNP 3%
Green 2%
Libertas 2%
Don't Know 3%
Won't Vote 2%
Others 2%

Now, compare this to how you said you'd vote in a General Election

Conservative 73% (+20)
UKIP 2% (-13)
BNP 3% (-5)
LibDem 7% (+1)
Labour 4% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Green 1% (-1)
Libertas 0% (-2%)
Don't Know 3% (-)
Won't Vote 2% (-1)
Others 2%

So you see the Tory vote shoots up in a General Election, as the Tories attract back any support which has gone to other parties in the Euros. The actual per centages are rather irrelevant in a survey like this, which clearly will not reflect the per centages in the country. It is the trend which is important. But it shows the Tory leadership has a real challenge ahead of it in persuading a large chunk of its supporters to stick with it and not lend their votes to UKIP, or indeed, dare I say it, the BNP.

At the last Euro election the Tories only got 26% of the vote. Labour will try to spin any failure by the Tories to get more than 40% as a lamentable failure, even if their own vote dips below 20%. In my view, 35% would be a very good result indeed for the Tories.

As an aside, I'd love to know who the ten people are who said they would vote UKIP in the Euros and LibDem in the General Election. I'd love even more to hear their rationale.