Britannia Radio

TELEGRAPH                    8.5.09

This is no time for Tory jokes - we're galloping into a mega-crisis

Attacking Labour policies and not the personalities will seal Gordon  

Brown's fate, argues Jeff Randall.

For once, Gordon Brown got it right. Don't laugh, he really did. At  

this week's Prime Minister's Questions, the Weary One scolded his  

Conservative tormentors for playing the man (him) instead of the ball  

(government policy).

This, you might think, was a bit rich coming from a leader whose  
unmuzzled pitbull mistook the dissemination of defamatory tales about  
Tory rivals for a public-relations strategy. Nevertheless, the  
descent of Wednesday's PMQs into an exposition of Mr Brown's personal  
inadequacies (an unmissable target) served only to deflect attention  
from the United Kingdom's dire straits.

Tempting though it must be for adversaries to remind an unrepentant  
Prime Minister of his behavioural oddities, the time for such tribal  
indulgences has long gone. Who cares if he chucks his phone at the wall?

At this stage of the game, with the nation's finances shredded by  
Downing Street's incompetence, every second counts. It should be Mr  
Brown who is seeking amusing diversions from reality, not the  
Opposition.
In a feeble attempt to appear interesting, Hazel Blears, the  
Secretary of State for Communities, wrote in last weekend's Observer:  
"No government after 12 years in office can compete on slick  
presentation and clever sound bites."

Many Labour MPs will be praying that she is wrong, because if the  
general election is fought on matters of substance, they are doomed.  
Massaging the message may be all that she and her colleagues have left.

In Parliament, Mr Brown dared the Tories to tackle him on big issues  
that really count. They should do so – with gusto. After more than a  
decade of his stewardship, the British economy is in such a shocking  
condition that it is very hard for ordinary voters to comprehend the  
scale of the problems that we, our children and grandchildren will  
face. Forget wisecracks about the Prime Minister's psychological  
flaws, let's concentrate on his track record.

As millions of consumers are discovering, there are phases in the  
build-up of unaffordable debt when it is possible to imagine that  
living way beyond one's means is a legitimate and sustainable option.  
For a while, doomsters' warnings of disaster are readily ignored. The  
time bomb is ticking, but without an explosion the dangers can be  
passed off as undue pessimism.

This is the position of some Labour diehards who continue to press  
for yet more unfunded government spending, while manufacturing fears  
of "Tory cuts" (they were at it again during PMQs). One can almost  
smell their fear.
Faced with the horror of expulsion from the Commons – and the  
prospect of finding a proper job, without a cornucopia of expenses –  
they demand bribes for the electorate, even though mounting bills  
will destroy the budgetary independence of future generations. The  
position of these MPs is nakedly selfish: we'll enjoy the goodies  
now; someone else can pay later.

As the voice of integrity on Labour's backbenches, Frank Field  
rightly says: "We're sleepwalking into a mega-crisis. It is  
irresponsible to leave the public finances in this state until after  
the next election."

In an Early Day Motion, he and Vince Cable set out the risks that  
some other MPs prefer not to acknowledge: "Neither the Government nor  
the official Opposition has published the changes that will be  
required to tax revenues and public expenditure levels over the short  
to medium term, preferring to leave such discussions until after the  
election… it is increasingly likely in these circumstances that the  
Government will find it ever more difficult to raise the necessary  
amount of debt, with all the dangers such a failure entails for the  
value of the UK's currency [and] its future prosperity."  [In fact I  
published the three major options under discussion now only this week  
- 6/5/09 (“The grim options open to us”) -cs]

If it were just the Conservatives and their fellow travellers in the  
media who rejected Alistair Darling's vision for a quick recovery,  
ministers might rest more easily. But international bodies and  
independent forecasters are queueing up to denounce the Chancellor's  
forecasts as politically motivated wishful thinking. Apart from his  
paid advisers and that bloke with a bottle of meths who sleeps in  
Parliament Square, it's hard to find anyone who thinks that Mr  
Darling's predictions for growth and debt levels are credible.

The International Monetary Fund and the European Commission both  
expect Britain's output to shrink this year by more than the 3.5 per  
cent that was outlined in the April Budget. The National Institute of  
Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts that the contraction  
will be 4.3 per cent, with unemployment continuing to increase until  
2011, peaking at more than 3 million. When Miss Blears referred to  
the Government's "lamentable failure to get across our message", was  
it this, I wonder, that she had in mind?

The NIESR report is only for those with formidable constitutions.  
Lesser folk will require illegal quantities of medication in order to  
read the whole thing.
Growth (or lack of it) is, of course, only half the story. When Mr  
Darling's economy fails to recover in line with his projections, the  
borrowing needed to fill the hole will whizz off the meter. But who  
will lend us the money?

The Chancellor says that his borrowing will top £700 billion over the  
next five years. If correct, that would stretch the country's credit  
rating to breaking point. But, without urgent remedial action, the  
total will almost certainly be much more, proportionally far  
exceeding that of any other G8 country. We are on course to spend  
annually a greater sum on interest payments (£43 billion in 2010-11)  
than on defence.  [And that’s an ANNUAL cost -cs]

Even the Treasury Select Committee, with its Labour majority, has  
lost faith in the Brown-Darling magic show. The old tricks no longer  
fool the audience. The MPs say that the Chancellor is "too  
optimistic". The unpalatable truth is that unless the Prime Minister  
discovers a thick seam of gold running under Whitehall, we will all  
be required to work longer and harder and save more.

State spending must be cut – there cannot simply be a slowing of  
growth – and tax increases reversed. Hitting the so-called rich with  
a new top rate generates precious little, except a vindictive smile  
from Harriet Harman. History tells us that higher earners pay more in  
taxes when rates are low. Even the Treasury expects two thirds of  
those in the new 50 per cent band to find ways of dodging it. Set  
against the Chancellor's annual expenditure of £671 billion, the sums  
involved are tiny, probably less than £1 billion. It is, in effect,  
an envy tax.

A Cabinet minister once told me that this Government will never get  
to grips with the pensions crisis because it involves telling people  
that they must endure pain today for jam tomorrow, precisely the  
opposite of what Mr Brown and his acolytes regard as the recipe for  
self-preservation. They will always try to buy time with taxpayers'  
money. Unfortunately, both are running out.

At the next PMQs, Conservative participants should remember that.
========================================

A VERSE FOR OUR TIMES - from the 1930s
"There are Bad Times Just Around The Corner" -Noel Coward

  Verse 2

From Portland Bill to Scarborough
They're querulous and subdued
And Shropshire lads
Have behaved like cads
From Berwick-on-Tweed to Bude,
They're mad at Market Harborough
And livid at Leigh-on-Sea,
In Tunbridge Wells
You can hear the yells
Of woe-begone bourgeoisie.
We all get bitched about, lads,
Whoever our vote elects,
We know we're up the spout, lads.
And that's what England expects.
Hurray-hurray-hurray!
Trouble is on the way.

Refrain 2

There are bad times just around the corner,
The horizon's gloomy as can be,
There are black birds over
The grayish cliffs of Dover
And the rats are preparing to leave the B.B.C.
We're an unhappy breed
And very bored indeed
When reminded of something that Nelson said.
While the press and the politicians nag nag nag
We'll wait until we drop down dead.