Blunkett Says No to Brown
Iain Dale 6:50 PM
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless deviceHow High Will Turnout Be Tomorrow?
Iain Dale 6:33 PM
Will This Satisfy Peter Oborne?
Iain Dale 6:14 PM
It was good to see Adam Macqueen again. He worked for me briefly (don't they all?!) at Politico's many moons ago and is now one of the Eye's main journalists. He is also writing a history of the magazine to mark its 50th anniversary, and blogs HERE. An all round good guy.Who's Next?
Iain Dale 5:07 PM
The biggest decision for Gordon Brown now is what to do with Alistair Darling and David Miliband. Darling seems to be making it clear that if he can't stay as Chancellor, he will quit the government. David Miliband has also signalled heavily that he wishes to stay as Foreign Secretary. Having been seen as having wimped out of standing up to the PM in the summer of 2008 he won't make that mistake again.
One other interesting scenario is whether any of Hazel Blears' close allies decide to follow her lead. I wonder, for example, what the future holds for Caroline Flint, the Europe Minister, who spoke out in Hazel Blears' defence last week. In theory she should be a sure fire certainty for the cabinet, but I wonder whether she might a) resign or b) be fired.The Consequences of Hazel Blears
Iain Dale 12:44 PM
Readers know that I have a lot of time for Hazel Blears. I do think that she has been one of the more talented Cabinet Ministers, not that she has had a lot of competition for that accolade. But the most important thing is that many of her colleagues underestimate her.
I suspect that she may well make a resignation speech in the Commons next week. Could she really turn out to be Geoffrey Howe reincarnated? Analogies with the events of November 1990 can be overdone, but there's another one too - remember how Margaret Thatcher went to France in the middle of her troubles? Guess who's off to France at the weekend. John Biffen said her departure was like standing in front of a Paris underground map and watching all the lights go on.
I had a text from a Labour MP this morning which said: "Right, that's it. Enough". There are two things which will determine Gordon Brown's future: whether there are any more resignations, and the results of the County Council and European elections. I gather there is a letter of no confidence doing the rounds of Labour MPs today. The rumour is that 40 MPs have signed up to it already. It needs 72 before events take on a momentum of their own.
Let's scroll forward. If Brown goes - and I now think that is possible, if not probable - would the British public (and more importantly the media) stomach a second unelected Prime Minister in a row? Constitutionally, there is no reason the government is forced to hold an election in these circumstances, but politically it might be unavoidable. I don't think a new prime minister could get away with simply saying that the election will be in May 2010.The Cabinet Continues to Reshuffle Itself: Woodward on the Move
Iain Dale 12:29 PM
In Northern Ireland Questions this morning, he gave a performance which many interpreted as his swansong. He even emulated Margaret Thatcher in 1990 when he told Andrew MacKinlay "I'm tempted to say 'I'm enjoying this'! But I will resist it". That surely has to be the biggest hint yet that he is on the move.
The thought of Shaun Woodward as Home Secretary is a delicious one. Not quite as delicious as Ed Balls as Chancellor, but nearly. You work it out.PMQs: Brown Flounders, Cameron Scores & Clegg's on Fire (Again)
Iain Dale 12:22 PM
Brown started off by saying: "I think people should take a step back here and understand what's happening". A poor choice of words. He then failed to answer Cameron's question on the future of Alistair Darling and couldn't say whether he would still be in the same job in a week's time, despite pouring praise on him. Time after time he refused to do so, which says everything we need to know. Cameron rightly pointed out that if Darling was doing such a good job why couldn't the Prime Minister say he would be in a job in a week's time.
David Cameron said everything he was expected to say, but there wasn't quite as much fire in his belly or anger as I was expecting. He still scored a clear win over Brown though, who struggled to say anything different to that which he has said over the past few weeks.
Nicl Clegg was on fire again, accusing Labour of being finished. He closed his second question with a corker: "Isn't it true that the real choice for the electorate is between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats?"
Cameron 7
Clegg 8
Wednesday, 3 June 2009
I understand from a senior Labour source that David Blunkett has refused an invitation from Gordon Brown to rejoin the Cabinet for a third time.
MySpace have just emailed me to tell me of a poll of their users in which 15% of those polled said they were not intending to vote tomorrow, but because of the expenses scandal would now do so. This fits in with my general view that turnout tomorrow is going to be far higher than usual. Rather than stay at home and say "a plague on all your houses" I suspect people are going to turn out in high numbers and give politicians from the main parties a good kicking. I think turnout could be well above 50%, which would be unheard of for a European election.
I don't think it is the done thing to talk about attending Private Eye lunches. But I promised Peter Oborne to pay homage to the Freedom of Information Campaigner, Heather Brooke, who I met for the first time. Without her campaigning tenacity the MPs expenses scandal would have never come to light. When Oborne arrived at the lunch he immediately threw himself at Heather's feet and kissed them. At a boy. I had a long chat with Heather towards the end of the lunch. I'd like to be transparent and tell you what we discussed. But I'd never get invited again. :)
According to Sky News, the reshuffle is already underway, as if that might make people more likely to vote Labour tomorrow. Nick Robinson is reporting that John Reid was offered Home Secretary last night but turned it down. He also said there were rumours which he couldn't substantiate (would I get away with that?!) that Alistair Darling has been offered the job and he too turned it down. So, Blunkett, Johnson, Denham and Woodward seem to be the most likely replacements.
A few weeks ago I warned that the Prime Minister might soon experience the wrath of a wounded chipmunk. I could never have predicted that Hazel Blears would resign from the Cabinet the day before an important set of elections. Her departure is entirely understandable, as she has experienced weeks of briefings against her. Over the last 12 hours Downing Street have been briefing the media that it was Blears who leaked the fact that Jacqui Smith would be leaving. Her patience snapped, and she told Brown that she'd had enough. Her resignation statement was notable for its lack of a single mention of Gordon Brown or the "achievements" of his government, which is the normal thing in these matters.
Shaun Woodward has been notable this morning for his close proximity to Gordon Brown. He had a one to one with Brown in Downing Street this morning, and sat next to him at PMQs where he spent most of the half an hour whispering into Brown's ear.
Gordon Brown squirmed like a wriggling eel at PMQs. He tried to explain away Hazel Blears's resignation by blaming it on family pressures over the expenses issue. That is an allegation he may well come to regret. If I know Hazel Blears, she will have exploded when watching that. As David Cameron said, if it was about expenses, she'd have resigned weeks ago.
Brown 4
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