Metamorphoses
2009/06/19
The Asian Century
The "confidential" BND study on the effects of the world economic crisis on global power constellations has been discussed in Berlin's government circles since last spring. The gist of the paper is now being expounded upon in the specialized periodical "Internationale Politik" to "generate a geo-strategic debate in Germany."[1] The journal's preface explains that "the world economic crisis is accelerating the dawn of the 'Asian Century.' The global balance of power is being shifted to the East."[2] In its study, the BND developed various scenarios on how this shift could take place. "We are possibly experiencing a geopolitical metamorphosis"[3] summarized BND President, Ernst Uhrlau, the anticipated serious transformations in the international system of states - having recourse to terminology rich in German tradition. Both German attempts to conquer world power last century, were accompanied by "geopolitical" contemplations. For decades, following the Second World War, that term fell into desuetude, until it suffered a renaissance in the 1990s.
Shift Eastward
The BND study's "Scenario No. 1", parts from the premise of "a recuperation of the market situation and a return of confidence in the world's economy".[4] Even though, in this scenario, the USA will be able to still maintain its predominance "for awhile," this will have "no influence" on "China's steady rise," according to the BND. "The weight between the major blocks: the USA, the EU and China" will inevitably "slowly shift eastward," predicts the German foreign intelligence service. This paper's "Scenario No. 1," which the authors doubt will materialize, includes an enhanced margin of maneuver for the most important exporters of raw materials, such as Russia, the Arab countries, Iran and Venezuela, due to their increase in prosperity as well as the rise in the price of raw materials, "with all the advantages and disadvantages that this would entail." This could lead particularly Venezuela and Russia to "act more self-confident on the political stage," warns the BND.
The China Scenario
According to the BND, "Scenario No. 2" would be "much less pleasant." The unprecedented billions of US dollars in bailouts could be a complete flop, the infamous excessive indebtedness of the US credit card could burst new finance bubbles, pulling the economy further into the abyss. If, in spite of the West's collapse, China succeeds in continuing its technological race to catch up, it "will very rapidly rise to become the predominating power in Asia." Whereas the USA has been forced to limit "its radius of action sooner than planned, out of financial considerations" Beijing could play its winning hand throughout the international arena. "The stronger China, and the weaker the USA appear" the more unambiguously many states could begin "to politically orient themselves" on the East, warns the BND. Decisive in this question is in which direction Russia will turn. The foreign intelligence service hopes that Moscow will stick with the West "to avoid having to take on the role of the ascending China's junior partner." But it is also imaginable that Russia will "rely offensively on Peking."[5] Berlin's "Strategic Community" has been contemplating this possibility for some time. Last year the Federal College for Security Studies openly speculated about a "threat of military conflict" between the West (EU, USA) and the East (China, Russia). (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6])
World War Potential
Whereas the intelligence service officially anticipates a development between Scenarios No. 1 and 2, they have also discovered tendencies that could make a "Scenario No. 3." This scenario predicts "a long-term global crisis" that would lead to an extensive re-nationalization of the world's economies. As a matter of fact, over the past few months, imports and exports in Germany, China, and Japan have dramatically collapsed. If this crisis endures, it could lead to the spread of "political instability" in countries furnishing raw materials due to a lack of exports. In such a case, China would also be threatened with an "unprecedented massive unemployment and movements of migration." The BND anticipates that China - as well as Russia - could pass through this period "by fomenting nationalism" to "redirect [domestic] aggressions toward overseas," eventually even against the West. "One needs little imagination, to picture the conflict that could evolve, for example with the USA" the paper explains in reference to "Scenario No. 3's" potential for a world war.[7]
Prompter
The BND's three scenarios point out the basic lines of Berlin's debate on the global political development for the next few years and decades. The few elements of this study that have been divulged to the public, pass in silence over German tendencies in the domestic crisis - here too nationalism is on the rise [8] - along with the aggressive potential in Berlin's foreign policy. Nonetheless the initiator of the study provides elements of what can be expected in German domestic developments. It was not one of Berlin's political establishment think tanks or one of the large foundations of private corporations that provided the German government with this study on the expected shifts in global power constellations. It was the foreign intelligence service, whose influence over the past decade has already significantly grown. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[9]) Once again, the main prompter proves to be the repressive and espionage apparatus, rather than the civilian establishment in Berlin.
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