Sunday 7 June 2009

 Middle East Strategic Information (MESI) Analysis
No. 15 June 3, 2009
  
 MESI Articles of the Week

Hizbullah's Struggle to Change the Lebanese Regime
Shimon Shapira and Yair Minzili

The publication of Hizbullah's subversive plan against Egypt and the exposure of a Shiite group headed by a Hizbullah activist that planned to act against Egyptian targets diverted attention from the challenge that Hizbullah has made against the very foundations of Lebanese authority. On April 3, 2009, Hizbullah published its political platform in advance of elections to the Lebanese parliament scheduled for June 7, 2009. The document calls for the abolition of sectarian politics and for the enactment of a new election law that would alter the equation of sectarian forces in Lebanon. In this manner, Hizbullah seeks to destroy the foundations of the sectarian regime in Lebanon agreed upon in the National Pact of 1943 that has been preserved by the Lebanese state ever since. The abolition of the existing political system will advance Hizbullah toward its fundamental goal: the establishment of an Islamic state and a complete Iranian takeover of Lebanon. The scholarly analyses that define Hizbullah as a Lebanese national movement are baseless. What Lebanese national interests are served by subversive activity in Egypt? What Lebanese interests seek the transfer of Iranian arms from Sudan and Sinai to Gaza? What national Lebanese ideology seeks to subvert the delicate sectarian structure upon which the modern Lebanese state is predicated? More...

Lebanese Elections: Key Players
Who are the key players in the upcoming Lebanese elections? What are the major issues facing the Lebanese voter? (Gulf News)

Shia-Christian Alliance Shakes Lebanon Politics 
It's an unusual alliance in a country where your religion usually determines your politics: Christians siding with Shia Muslim militant Hezbollah. But it has shaken up Lebanon's politics, and backers say it represents the future of this long divided nation. The coalition is also strong enough it could bring the anti-Israel and anti-US Hezbollah to power in next week's parliamentary elections. That possibility has turned this election into a fierce battle for Lebanon's Christians.
(Khaleej Times)

New Names, Same Games for Lebanon  Rime Allaf
Influence in Lebanon is both a means to an end, and an end in itself, they say, and proven culpability for the assassination of al-Hariri would seriously hinder this status quo. With each criminal action, goes the tale, Syria is attempting to jeopardise the work of the tribunal and blackmail Lebanon. (Al Jazeera)

Hizbullah's Sinister Hand  Michael Young
If Hizbullah did plan and execute the attack, a theory long discussed in Lebanon, it is virtually impossible to envisage that the party would have taken this action without receiving prior Syrian approval to do so. In fact, it is virtually impossible to envisage that it would have taken such action without Syrian direction to do so - direction that only Bashar Assad, given the centralized nature of Syria's regime, would have signed off on. (Daily Star - Lebanon)


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