A fascinating preview of the new politics. And remember that the Tories are bound to get a large number of new MPs regardless of the national result!
Any triumphalism after a possible win in the general election would be a disaster for the Tories. For the positive feelings towards Cameron are only just beginning to emerge and these largely in contrast to Brown. Then there is a hard core of solid Tory-voting people who positively dislike the touchy-feely aspects of the Cameroons.
On Europe there would no automatic endorsement of deals struck by a Tory PM in Brussels. Those days will end with the election. Any Tory MP will have to watch his back closely over ‘Europe’.
Christina
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FINANCIAL TIMES 14.7.09
Cameron must take care with class of 2010
By Tim Montgomerie
In about 10 years’ time David Cameron will be an ex-prime minister, touring the US lecture circuit. Boris Johnson may have succeeded him as the occupant of 10 Downing Street. Copies of the 2010 Tory manifesto will be gathering dust on university bookshelves. One legacy of an expected Cameron victory at the next general election will still be very potent, however, and that will be the “class of 2010” – the largest increase in the number of Conservative MPs in modern times. These MPs will set the direction of Conservative politics for the next generation. They will be the ministers of the future.
The sheer number of prospective Conservative MPs is not the only factor that makes them such an interesting phenomenon. Also noteworthy are their political views and their likely independence of mind.
ConservativeIntelligence.com has just completed a survey of Tory candidates in the 220 most winnable target seats. With 144 participating, it offers a reliable indication of the next intake’s worldview. The results suggest that the next generation of Conservative MPs are very much the children of Margaret Thatcher rather than of David Cameron. Just as Lady Thatcher inherited a parliamentary party in the consensual mould of Macmillan and Heath, Mr Cameron will inherit a parliamentary party cast in the iron image of Lady Thatcher.
Lady Thatcher casts her longest shadow over the issue of Europe. Some of the party’s last remaining Europhiles retire at the next election and they will be replaced by a very Eurosceptic cohort. Only 10 per cent support the status quo. Some 47 per cent want a repatriation of powers, 38 per cent support a fundamental renegotiation and 5 per cent want to leave the EU completely.
Four-fifths support nuclear power stations, although Team Cameron has said they should be a last resort. Clear majorities do not support the leadership’s decision to force Catholic adoption agencies to place children with gay couples but do believe that same-sex unions should enjoy equal rights with married couples. They are split on whether the UK should be defended at all costs or whether to be relaxed about Scotland becoming independent. Some 94 per cent oppose laws that would allow recreational use of cannabis. All but one of the prospective MPs support the repeal of the foxhunting ban.
Will these views find public expression or will Mr Cameron be able to whip them into order? If history is a guide, all but a few in the new intake will be very loyal at first. But as MPs get their feet under the table they tend to start asserting their independence and there is evidence to suggest that the class of 2010 might be more so inclined than previous cohorts.
First, barely a quarter of the 220 candidates in target seats are from the “A-list”. The Priority List, to give it its official title, was Mr Cameron’s elite pick of 50 per cent men and 50 per cent women from which Conservative Associations were supposed to choose. Many associations rebelled, however, and the non-A-listers that they selected are not going to feel the same loyalty to the leadership. In addition, there are 43 candidates who have fought their seats at least once, while 51 represent part of their constituencies on their local councils. They will not automatically assume that they owe their place in parliament to Mr Cameron.
They will also be sat alongside veteran Tory MPs who feel that Mr Cameron threw many of their colleagues to the wolves during the expenses crisis. I happen to believe that Mr Cameron handled “expenses-gate” almost perfectly but a good number of MPs think that he was unwilling to defend them against public opinion and that loyalty needs to be a two-way street.
All of this represents a massive management issue for Mr Cameron. He currently runs the Conservative party from a suite of offices likened to the White House West Wing. Most big decisions are taken by a small group of people that he has known for 20 years. So far this has served the Conservatives well, taking the party to the verge of a historic victory. But Tory MPs have short memories. They will not thank Cameron if the opinion polls go south, just as they did not stay loyal to Lady Thatcher when she became unpopular. A combination of popularity and a more inclusive style of leadership will be necessary if Mr Cameron is to keep all of the parliamentary party singing from the same hymn sheet.
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The writer is director of ConservativeIntelligence.com [and editor of Conservative Home Blog]
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