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NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 01 JULY 2009
TURBULENT PRIESTS
The story of modern IRAN has been often retold in the context of the Islamic republic. Most recently the world watched and marvelled as they held an election for the third level of government power, the presidency, currently held by the man the west 'loves to hate,' President Ahmadinijad. The outcome was that he remains in office but any evidence of the vestigial democracy that sits below the theocratic levels of power, has been blown away. A cartoonist observed, "You vote, God decides."
We incline to think that the US president's emollient speech in the middle-east struck the right notes and indicated that US policy to that area was being radically revised. The first major test was the Lebanese elections, which we describe in this issue.
Were it not for this small and prickly nation having a nuclear capacity, plus some rudimentary rockets, it would not it is true get the news coverage (mostly bad) that it does. But it has at least brought about a unity of purpose between the five other nation members of the negotiating committee and when one considers that this includes China and RUSSIA, lining up with South Korea, the USA and Japan, that is no small achievement. As usual we bring a update of news from the hermit republic including an indication of the new ‘leader elect’, the youngest known son of Kim Jong Il, Dear Leader and grandson of the nation’s founder Kim il Sung Great Leader. The Kim believed to be next in the line of inheritance, is Kim jong-un, to be known as The Brilliant Comrade. We also take a look at the world picture of nuclear proliferation.
In July President Obama meets President Medvedev to see if a new beginning is possible. Basically, they will be announcing the results of the negotiations between their aides for a new revision of nuclear weaponry - these two nations of course holding easily the largest nuclear armouries in today’s world. From the outside world’s perspective, what is really attention-worthy here is that neither George W Bush nor Vladimir Putin are fronting for their nations. These younger men may be able to change the longstanding, barely disguised hostility, that marked earlier generations of leaders. We consider their agenda.
Although we could not have guessed it, the recent fracas between Russian forces and those of GEORGIA, severely tested the structures of the Russian military, which has given a boost to that nations military reformers. We offer a story outlining the changes that are taking place.
We are lost in admiration for the new president's speechwriters. Both on his inaugural and State of the Nation speeches they excelled themselves by dwelling on aspirations shared with the other parties rather than hard facts, although he did give some hostages to fortune. For example to promise half a million new jobs in the next six months, in this economic climate! We examine other points of his speech - big promises which in today's world look somewhat incredible, but we must remember that this man walks on water.
The army is being serious about the Islamic warriors as we describe. Many good men will die as a result, but a nation state proclaiming the rule of law must have a monopoly of violence within its frontiers. That has been the experience of many of the world's nations. It is a fundamental reality of democracy. We wish 'the forces of law and order' success.
Here the line-up is Afghan government troops together with NATO forces against a variety of domestic warriors, some motivated by Islam , others by the outrage of foreign troops on their turf. As usual we do our best to explain where the political situation has got to, the key event being the line-up for the presidential election.
We also look at matters presidential in TURKEY. UKRAINE and ALBANIA.
After the Americans - the deluge? As US forces withdraw from IRAQ's cities this is the question observers are asking themselves. They haven’t left the country yet, withdrawing to bases outside of the cities, but it seems clear that they seek to finish having any further military responsibility for events within IRAQ. Horrendous anti-civilian bombs are being set off, mainly we presume by Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia - still hoping to set Shia in arms against the Sunni, in the forthcoming absence of foreign military. We venture a thought on what history will make of this hateful war.