It's not lost ...

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

It's not lost ...

As I was hinting last night – and did so prematurely last week – the storm has run its course. The number of new stories or new "angles" on Afghanistan has fallen to a trickle, and very soon it will be back to "normal" – if one dare use that word.

For all the torrent on media coverage, the pessimistic view is that absolutely nothing has been achieved, nothing resolved. That is not the case though. Waves have been made and, in the fullness of time, changes will become apparent, but not all for the good.

The view from theatre – if there can be something as straightforward as a single view – seems to be that the helicopter issue was totally overblown. At the moment, with the US forces in place, the bulk of their helicopters are available as "theatre assets" and the troops are getting plenty of helicopter rides.

In the green zone also, where the bulk of the fighting has been, the value of the Viking, in being able to cross difficult terrain is much appreciated, But there is indeed nervousness about using it: preliminary estimates of the weight of explosives that took out Col Thorneloe's Viking are that some 30kg of homemade explosives were used.

That weight, equivalent to about 10kg of military-grade explosive, would have been shrugged off by a well-designed mine-resistant vehicle, yet when it exploded under the driver's seat, it ripped through the floor, killing him instantly. For all the talk of the Taleban building bigger bombs, this was not one of them. In the right vehicle, the explosion was survivable.

Elsewhere, the US Marines captured a major cache of IEDs and the photograph above shows the face of the enemy – 25 litre plastic drums, packed with fertiliser (click the pic to enlarge and, at the back of the room, you can see the 25kg bags of fertiliser).

Meanwhile, of our own MoD, a a report today accuses it of losing track of £155 million-worth of radio equipment. That doesn't mean to say it is lost – just that the MoD doesn't know where it is.

That, in fact, sounds like a description of the whole Afghan campaign. Perhaps we should send them a roadmap.

COMMENT THREAD

Monday, July 20, 2009

The Gore effect

Summer cold has broken the 1897 temperature record in Gore's home state Tennessee. Nashville dropped to 59 degrees early Monday and Knoxville bottomed out at 60 degrees - both tying records for the date. Nashville's high temperature on Sunday was 77 degrees, a record low for a high temperature on July 19. The previous record was 79 degrees set in 1897. 

The National Weather Service reported the temperature in Chattanooga dipped to 59 degrees Monday morning, eclipsing the previous record for the date of 60 degrees, set in 1947. Early Sunday morning, the Tri-Cities set a new low for the date, reaching 54 degrees and breaking the old record of 55 degrees, set in 1984.

In fact, cold is breaking out all over - and there's not much sign of thebarbeque weather that the Met Office promised us over here, either.

European defence co-operation

Major General Julian Thompson, victor in the Falklands and all-round good-egg, writes in the letters column of The Daily Telegraph today, asking whether the way to avoid casualties in Afghanistan was to "follow the German, French and Spanish example and not fight?"

He goes on to add that the government obsession with a European defence identity has wasted money on Euro-projects, instead of buying cheaper, better equipment off the shelf. He is thus answering the rush of propaganda from Nick Clegg, Lib-Dim leader, who has been exploiting the equipment "crisis" in Afghanistan, arguing for greater European defence co-operation as a way of resolving the problems.

He was, for instance, in full flow in The Independent on Saturday, asking: "why is Britain dragging its feet on European defence co-operation that would allow us to pool resources with the French and others so we can get more bang for our bucks?"

As a very rough estimate, however, we calculated that excess costs arising out of European defence co-operation came to £8.8 billion, either in failed projects or excess costs. That would buy a ridiculous 35,000 RG-31 mine protected vehicles or 350 Chinook helicopters.

Amongst the more egregious examples of waste were the "Trigat" projects - medium and long-range anti-tank missiles. British participation in these European projects (appropriately, developed by "Euromissile") cost us over £314 million before we had to pull out after the systems failed to deliver, leaving the MoD with a total loss. 

A rush purchase of US-built Javelin missiles had to be made to equip the Army, which now form a basic (if expensive) part of our armoury in Afghanistan.

With not so much as a blush, though, Clegg tells us that our priorities must change for a rapidly changing world, so that we invest in what's most likely to be needed: helicopters, mine-resistant armoured vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, intelligence gathering systems, strategic airlift, as well as the more traditional effect of manpower.

One wonders whether, in terms of "strategic airlift" he is thinking of that wonderful example of European co-operation, the A-400M. Clearly, that is the answer to all our problems.

When it comes to mine-resistant armoured vehicles though, the French do have the answer (pictured top), which we would do well to emulate. In April this year, they had delivered to Afghanistan three US-built Buffalo route clearance vehicles, plus Husky mine detection vehicles (which they call Souvims).


The vehicles were, incidentally, delivered in an Antonov 124 (pictured above), proudly announced by the French defence ministry, who seem to have no problems using this Russian-built strategic airlift. In fact, VAB armoured personnel carriers similar to that accompanying the Buffalo in the top picture were also delivered by an Antonov 124.