Wednesday, 30 September 2009

Michael O'Leary, the boss of Ryanair, has admitted in a television interview that one of the reasons he was campaigning for a "yes" vote in the Irish referendum was that the government was "incompetent". Yet he says, "I needed to persuade them to sell me Aer Lingus."

I think we knew that , but it is good to have it confirmed.

O'Leary had in fact said that it would be undemocratic to make the Irish vote again on the treaty after it had been rejected last June. He has now spent €500,000 (£460,000) on advertisements and free flights to support the "yes" camp. A better advertisement for voting "no" is hard to imagine.

COMMENT THREAD

An e-mail arrived today from Gallup-Europe, inviting me to share my expertise. Hmm, I thought. I do make quite a good loaf of bread, even though I say so myself and my apple chutney is quite popular. But really and truly my expertise lies in making cabbage pie.

None of that, alas. Gallup-Europe and Friends of Europe want me to participate in a questionnaire that will eventually feed into a report on how the EU can best communicate with member states.

As encouragement they told me:

In October 2004, Friends of Europe, together with partners from the communication sector, launched its "Can EU Hear Me?" report to the then-incoming European Commission and European Parliament. This influential report can still be downloaded here. This previous report, which integrated useful suggestions from many high-level communication officials, is still used as a reference by the Commission.
Well, goodness me, I thought. If I fill in the questionnaire my opinions might be used as a reference by the Commission. Worth a go, I thought. Then I read the next paragraph:
Now, five years later, with the lowest turnout for the European elections in history and the troubled Lisbon Treaty ratification process, the need still exists for a better communication policy from the EU.
So, that communication exercise was a huge success. I wonder how low the turn-out for the European elections would have been if the report had not been produced.

COMMENT THREAD

... when we were interested in headlines such as Fishermen despair at 'crippling' EU rules. There was even a time when the fishermens' plight would make the front pages of the national dailies, with tense debates in the House of Commons.

And plight it is. John Buchan, a "top north-east skipper" is warning that the white fish fleet is facing its biggest crisis for 30 years and has called for urgent action to stop boats being forced out of business.

But his plea only gets as far as the Aberdeen Press and Journal. It will get no further. It is not that people don't care. Many do – passionately. But the issue is bound up in a sense of futility, hopelessness and despair. 

It does not matter what we think. There is nothing we can do about this. There is nothing our MPs can do about it. And Mr Cameron's Tories have set their face against doing anything, having abandoned Howard's pledge to repatriate fishing policy.

So, we stop writing about it. People stop discussing it. There is no point in either. You might just as well complain about the colour of the moon. And therein lies the victory of the EU – it has worn us down with its own inertia and we have given up.

Except we haven't. Our resolve has never wavered. When or if the Irish roll over on Friday and bow to the pressure of the "colleagues", our resolve will not waver. But we have no illusions. Getting the UK out of the EU is going to take some time. And, by the time we succeed, there will be no fishing industry left, worth talking about.

Call it a casualty of war. And there will be more before we prevail.

COMMENT THREAD

It may be a deceptively simple question, but why do we have to find about thisfrom the official Chinese news agency?

From this source, we learn that The EU "defence ministers" met in Gothenburg yesterday, and agreed "that better cooperation between civilian and military actors would contribute to improved maritime surveillance and more effective peace support operations."

We also learn that ministers have agreed "to cooperate in training, risk assessment, intelligence, information sharing, evacuation, logistic support and strategic transport." The formal blueprint will be discussed again in November.

This is, apparently, a "two day informal meeting" and the ministers will continue to discuss "usability and flexibility of the battle group and the Afghan issue".

Elsewhere, we read that Spain is "very optimistic" that a deal will be reached to rescue Europe's largest defence project, the delayed Airbus A-400M military transport aircraft. This came from Spanish defence minister Carme Chacon on Monday, with a Reuters dateline from er ... Gothenburg. So a deal has been made, has it?

Meanwhile, back in the lil ol' UK, we are in the early stages of embarking on the process of a strategic defence review, and one would have thought that issues such as the "usability and flexibility of the battle group" – to which the UK is committed, might have a bearing on the discussions.

But, once again, we have hole-in-the-corner discussions, unreported by the UK media, which almost certainly will have significant effects on our future defence policy – to say nothing of our strategic airlift capabilities. And yet, we are told nothing.

COMMENT THREAD

Which is more important? On the one hand, we have the devastating personal tragedy of Fiona Pilkington, driven to the unlawful killing of her daughter and her own suicide, acts of desperation in response to the lack of police and official support against a regime of bullying from local thugs.

On the other, we have Afghanistan. By common accord, the war is at a "decisive" state, with a very real risk of failure, made worse by strategic stasis in the White House. There, in what is being seen as a "remarkable parallel" with a turning point in the Vietnam War 44 years ago, Obama is to preside over a series of meetings that will determine whether the US will proceed with an escalation of the war or reduce the US military commitment there.

The question is, of course, absurd. Both issues are important – but of a different order. No more can you rank them in importance than you can rank the myriad of other issues that assail us daily – whether Iran is serious about building the Bomb, which way the Irish will vote on Friday, whether the apparent economic recovery is real or simply a precursor to a "double-dip" recession ... and so on.

Dealing with them - all of them - though, is the stuff of politics. That is what politics is all about. It is the art of giving due attention to the competing and conflicting demands on time and resources, affording enough to each without becoming obsessed or trapped by any one issue or event, however intrinsically important it might be.

And that is where the Conservative Party – and its membership – seems to have a problem. Dealing with the growing crisis in Afghanistan, we had yesterday the shadow defence secretary Liam Fox talking to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, apparently oblivious to developments the other side of the Atlantic, delivering a speech which failed in any way to acknowledge the depths of the political crisis which is taking shape in Washington.

But as instructive was the reaction of the website Tory Diary. If it can be taken as a weather-vane, representing a certain sector of Conservative thought, it is instructive that it chose to feature Fox's speech in advance of delivery, focusing only on his narrow – and largely misplaced – attack on the Labour government.

It did not revisit the speech after the event, to discuss the content and the wider issues raised. It did not thus address the manifest limitations of the shadow defence secretary, and his failure to explore the broader strategic and political implications of the events in Washington, in what is a fast-moving and worrying situation. Equally instructive is that fact that, from the Leader, on the whole issue of Afghanistan and recent developments, comment there is none. This is a matter which can be left to the minions.

Then compare and contrast David Cameron's response to the Pilkington affair. He is out in front this morning, with a storming indictment of Labour Party policy, and – to the obvious approval ofTory Dairy - tells us "everything will done be differently by a Conservative government".

This is not intended as criticism. It is an observation, one that reveals where the priorities of the Conservatives and some of their supporters lie, and possibly gives us a clue as to how a future Conservative government might perform. Great international issues are lower down the ranking of importance than the "social agenda" which the new "caring" Conservatives have made their central platform.

What is disturbing is that we expect more of a government than a narrow focus on a limited range of preferred issues. We do not expect it to "park" the rest of the agenda, or leave it to the minions to deal with. Government is more than delivering just enough to keep the faithful happy and – more particularly – making sure awkward issues do not intrude on the areas where the party has chosen to devote its attention.

In short, we expect a government to be able to deal with the multiplicity of issues which demand attention, giving to each the necessary thought and prominence, coming up with considered and appropriate responses in line with the seriousness that the situations demand. We do not expect a government to pick and chose issues it will deal with, and "park" the rest because they do not fit with its political agenda.

Looking at the disparate treatment of the Pilkington affair and Afghanistan, it is not possible to determine that, in "power", we will have a Conservative government which is capable of properly ordering its priorities. There is more to running a government than putting on a "caring" face.

COMMENT THREAD

"America's lack of knowledge on climate change could prevent the world from reaching an agreement to stop catastrophic global warming, scientists said in an attack on the country's environmental policy."

This is the latest effluvia from the world's favourite newspaper, retailing the opinion of Professor John Schellnhuber, "one of the world's leading global warming experts."

Schellnhuber is a leading member of the Potsdam institute, one of the temples of the warmist religion and he expressed his views to "more than 100 scientists" who are meeting at Oxford University "to discuss the dangers of climate change causing droughts, floods and mass extinctions around the world."

His little conference is but one part of the hype as the warmists desperately try to fan the flames of public concern as a prelude to the Copenhagen conference at the end of the year. 

But if Schellnhuber was at all honest – and tell me one warmist that is – he would also have to admit that there were some Americans who were very "climate literate", and had just shot his fox, totally destroying the iconic "hockey stick".

The trouble is that not only are the warmists fundamentally dishonest, so are the media. We are looking here at what I would have no difficulty in describing as scientific fraud on an industrial scale – striking at the very heart of the claims on global warming. Yet, apart from Booker, you will struggle to find any criticism of this fraud in the MSM – and nothing at all about the latest developments.

Methinks it is not "climate illiteracy" about which Schellnhuber should be concerned, but the "moral illiteracy" amongst his own kind ... before their lies catch up with them.

COMMENT THREAD

Those interested in the Afghan issue are doubtless aware of the recent McChrystal assessment report, and most will have either read the redacted copy or, at the very least, read one or more of the numerous media reviews of it. 

Those who have done neither could, if they so wished, read the speech delivered today by Liam Fox to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

With the working title, "Beyond the Smoke: Making Progress in Afghanistan", its substantive parts are unashamedly lifted from the McChrystal assessment report, comprising an evaluation of "three areas in the current struggle in Afghanistan". These are the role of the Afghan population in the war, capacity building of the Afghan Security Forces and the need to improve governance across Afghanistan.

Fox even admits the source, stating that they have been identified as priorities by the General, then somewhat rashly declaring that they form the basis of future strategy in Afghanistan.

Whether McChrystal was defining a strategy or simply a new (as applied to Afghanistan) tactical approach is moot, but the strategy comprises in essence the implementation of the "Integrated civil-military campaign plan", which goes well beyond the three areas enumerated by Fox.

Crucially though, Fox seems to have fallen into the trap (one of many) of assuming that the McChrystal assessment is a done deal. He is behind the curve, seemingly unaware that president Obama has not acted on it and, instead, has commissioned his own strategic review. Whether McChrystal's recommendations will become policy, therefore, remains a matter of speculation. They certainly cannot be taken as read.

The "game changer", of course, was the Afghan presidential election. It is recognised that any successful counterinsurgency requires a stable and legitimate political partner in the host country and, whether Karzai manages to cling on to power or not, there is general agreement that he will be weakened and that his administration will lack legitimacy. 

On that basis, there are serious doubts as to whether the classic counterinsurgency strategy, advocated by McChrysal, can actually work. It was that which led Obama to commission his new review, from which an entirely different strategy might emerge.

Apparently completely oblivious to this development, Fox – in his only substantive reference to the election - states that it is "crucial" that it "must be seen to be credible and reflect the wishes of the Afghan people." This is wishful thinking beyond peradventure.

Thus, we are left with what amounts to a slavish adherence to the McChrystal creed, with not one scintilla of critical exploration. Fox's only concern is to ensure that the "strategy" is properly resourced. That much is picked up by The Times, which provocatively headlines: "Tories would send 2,500 more troops to Afghanistan, says Liam Fox".

The paper then reports that the shadow defence secretary had "indicated" that a Conservative government would increase British troop numbers in Afghanistan by up to 2,500 and deliver more helicopters, armoured vehicles and "other key battlefield enablers".

In what could have been an opportunity to set out a new direction for what is evidently a failing campaign, Fox has therefore sold the pass. Like so many before him, he pays lip-service to the received wisdom that the campaign cannot be resolved by a "military victory", but he then defines success as securing security – which of course he seeks to achieve by military means.

No one, it seems, can see the logical absurdity in this approach – least of all Fox. A military solution is not possible ... therefore we must seek a military solution. "The reconstruction will follow," says Fox. "The factors of prosperity, individual freedoms, and free markets ... may someday come to Afghanistan. We should do all we can to help this to happen but it will not happen overnight," he adds.

It does not dawn on him, the simple precept that the order might be reversed. Focus on economic reconstruction, build prosperity, and protect a people who then have a stake in their society and something to lose. Security will follow. In the final analysis, security comes not from the barrel of a gun – it comes from the will of the people. But then, that is probably too difficult for Fox to understand.

COMMENT THREAD

I am shocked, I tell you, shocked. I hear from Anthony Coughlan of The National Platform that the European Commission has, in defiance of European legislation, which makes the ratification of a treaty a purely national matter, intervened in the Irish campaign.

This Sunday there was a

16-page propaganda Supplement on the EU being inserted in every Irish Sunday newspaper today. This must have cost several million euros - using European and Irish taxpayers' money to influence Irish voters to ratify the Lisbon Treaty and in the process expand the power and functions of the Brussels Commission itself.
Who could have believed that the Commission would act so cynically?

Presumably, the argument is that they are merely spreading information and not interfering in Irish domestic politics while telling tales of porcine aviation.

It would appear (more shocks to the system) that the information is not entirely accurate. Jens Peter Bonde has fisked the document.

COMMENT THREAD

An update on Afghanistan, pulling together some of the latest developments, over on Defence of the Realm.

What, then, of the opposition? Surely it has managed to hit a few of the easy targets with which the government has so thoughtfully supplied it?

No words of mine can adequately convey the contempt in which the Conservatives are now, rightly, held by almost everyone. I do not recall meeting anyone who thinks that David Cameron, their leader, is anything other than a careerist in the mould of Tony Blair. The most that anyone allows himself to hope is that, beneath the thin veneer of opportunism, there beats a heart of oak.

But the auguries are not good: Not only was Mr. Cameron's only pre-political job in public relations, hardly a school for intellectual and moral probity, but he has subscribed to every fashionable policy nostrum from environmentalism to large, indeed profligate, government expenditure. Not truth, but the latest poll, has guided him—at a time when only truth will serve. However, he will be truly representative as prime minister. Like his country, he is quite without substance.

Written by Theodore Dalrymple for the Wall Street Journal via A view from the wasteland. I wonder if they will publish it on Conservative Home?