Britannia Radio

Deal or no deal? Politics behind the Lockerbie affair

THE FIRST POST BRIEFING: The UK and Scottish governments have released documents relating to the release of bomber Megrahi. So do they shed light on why he was freed?

BY TIM EDWARDS

FIRST POSTED SEPTEMBER 1, 2009

What documents were published today?
Downing Street released correspondence between UK government ministers and their counterparts in Scotland, while the Scottish government published documents including notes on a meeting between the Libyan Minister for Europe and Scottish Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill.

• What do the released documents establish?
The documents do nothing to counter suggestions that trade deals with Libya were the overarching factor in Megrahi's release. However, two interesting facts have emerged regarding Britain's negotiations with Libya on the new prisoner transfer agreement, which was to make the bomber's release possible:

UK ministers at first attempted to ensure Megrahi would never be released from his Scottish prison and sent home to Tripoli. However, justice secretary Jack Straw subsequently changed his mind and told the Scottish executive such an exclusion was not in Britain's national interest.

MacAskill and Libyan Minister for Europe Abdulati Alobidi met in August 2009. During the encounter Alobidi claimed that UK Foreign Minister Bill Rammell had told him in February 2009 that "neither the prime minister [Gordon Brown] nor the foreign secretary would want Mr Megrahi to pass away in prison but the decision on transfer lies in the hands of Scottish ministers".

• What is the UK government's official position?
Britain and Libya have been edging towards normalisation of relations ever since diplomatic ties were restored in 1999. The then prime minister Tony Blair met Libyan president Colonel Gaddafi in March 2004, following Tripoli's agreement in December 2003 to allow inspectors to oversee the dismantling of the country's nuclear weapons programme.

As part of normalisation, according to Jack Straw, a prisoner transfer agreement was signed. Straw initially told the Scottish executive that he would attempt to exclude Megrahi from the agreement, but wrote to Kenny MacAskill on December 19 2007 to explain that he had reversed his position on the grounds of the UK's "overwhelming interests".

The fact that Megrahi was released on 'compassionate grounds' by the Scottish government - and emphatically not under the prisoner transfer agreement negotiated by the British government - allows Gordon Brown to truthfully say that Megrahi's release was unrelated to trade deals.

• What is the Scottish government's official position?
The Scottish administration has always said Megrahi's case is an issue for Scotland and objects to any suggestion of interference by the British. Even though Jack Straw opened the door for Megrahi to be sent home under the prisoner transfer agreement, Kenny MacAskill asserted Scottish independence by refusing Libya's request in August 2009. Later that month, MacAskill approved the release of Megrahi on 'compassionate grounds' - after the bomber agreed not to appeal his conviction.

• What does Britain have to gain from Megrahi's release?
Megrahi was preparing an appeal against his conviction in the months before his release, which was dropped when his request to be transferred to Libya was granted by MacAskill. His case was based on the unreliability of a key witness and questions around the exact model of the bomb timer and the bomb's complicated journey from Malta to Heathrow.

If Megrahi had won his appeal, it would have seriously undermined the credibility of the Scottish justice system - an email leaked from the Scottish justice department claims important evidence was withheld from the defence team - and lent credence to conspiracy theoriessurrounding the case, some of which implicate the CIA.

• What about the oil?
Libya has 41bn barrels of proven oil reserves and 1.5 trillion cubic metres of natural gas - all on the doorstep of the EU. And Britain needs to find a replacement for its dwindling North Sea reserves.

In May 2007, BP announced it had been granted oil rights in Libya worth £545m. In the same month, Britain signed a 'memorandum of understanding' with Libya which Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond angrily claimed included a prisoner transfer agreement. However, Megrahi was ultimately released on 'compassionate grounds'. Saif Gaddafi, the Libyan leader's son, said Megrahi's release was "on the table in all commercial, oil and gas agreements" during discussions on trade deals.

• Are there any other issues?
Other outstanding issues between Libya and Britain include the 1984 murder of Yvonne Fletcher, a policewoman, by a gunshot from the Libyan embassy in London and the question of compensation for the victims of IRA atrocities funded by Tripoli during the Troubles in Northern Ireland. Both affairs appear to be edging closer to a resolution. The fact is that Britain had almost nothing to gain from opposing Megrahi's transfer.

• Does Scotland have anything to gain?
As part of the UK, Scotland stands to gain from any trade deals eased by Megrahi's release. The administration there will also be pleased that Megrahi's appeal was dropped. But the ruling Scottish National Party, a keen proponent of an independent Scotland, may also have hoped to show they could carve out their own foreign policy (an area still dictated by Westminster).

In light of recent events, Alex Salmond may now wish he hadn't opposed the British government's initial request to free Megrahi.

• What do the Libyans say?
Saif Gaddafi has admitted the release of Megrahi under the prisoner transfer agreement was linked to trade negotiations. However, he also points out that the release was ultimately down to compassionate grounds and that, strictly speaking, trade negotiations had nothing to do with the affair.

From a domestic point of view, Megrahi is a member of the powerful Megarha tribe, members of whom hold key posts in the Libyan government. For Col Gaddafi, keeping this powerful tribe sweet is an important part of consolidating his grip on power.

• Why is the US angry?
America is angry because 180 Americans were killed in the Lockerbie bombing, and most families of those killed believe Megrahi was guilty.

However, it is instructive to study the reaction of the only man who matters. While President Obama called the release of the bomber "a mistake", the criticism from his administration has been muted.

Indeed the most trenchant show of anger against Scotland came from FBI director Robert Mueller, who told MacAskill: "Your action gives comfort to terrorists around the world."

There's a very good explanation: Washington today counts Libya as a valuable ally in the fight against al-Qaeda in North Africa. Megrahi's release can also be seen in the wider context of normalisation between Tripoli and the West. Besides, the US conceivably had as much to fear from the scrutiny a Megrahi appeal would invite as Scottish authoritie