I am not quibbling at these reports at all, but would like to add a word of caution. What they say here is right but please don’t run away with the thought of a Tory ‘whitewash’ in the North. The swing here is vast but the crucial point is that the end forecast is a modest 3% lead in the North overall, for the Tories start so far behind!
Christina
CONSERVATIVE HOME 24.9.09
Labour's collapse in the North since 2005 gives the Tories huge cause for optimism in the region
Earlier in the month the Telegraph carried a report claiming that the Conservatives were failing to make a breakthrough in the North of England - which was swiftly rubbished by the authoritative Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report.
So it is equally reassuring to see today's Financial Times reporting a collapse in Labour's support in the North of England and a swing to the Tories in the region which goes into double figures:
"The FT’s analysis of the most recent aggregated polling data, which allows sufficiently large sample sizes to show reliable regional and demographic trends, paints a bleak picture for Labour. The Tories have built a narrow four-point lead in the north, eradicating the 19-point Labour lead in the region that underpinned Tony Blair’s last general election victory, the research shows. The 11.5 percentage point swing from Labour to the Tories in the north since the May 2005 poll is the largest for any region of Britain."
By my calculations, such a swing would deliver nearly thirty gains from Labour in the crucial battleground of the North West, more than a dozen seats in the Yorkshire and the Humber region, as well as three or even four seats in the North East.
The fourth North East seat would be Sunderland Central, which the FT considers in some detail as a potential "Basildon of 2010" which could provide an early indication of Tory success on election night (assuming the votes are counted on the night... but that's another campaign). Lee Martin, the now full-time candidate for the seat wrote about his campaign there in this week's Diary of a PPC.
There is one note of caution in the FT coverage of its polling analysis, however, in its suggestion that David Cameron must be careful not to alienate the lower middle classes:
"The greater resistance to spending cuts further down the socio-economic scale may help to explain why Mr Cameron is finding it easier to woo the ABs, the upper middle and middle classes whose jobs are largely immune to Whitehall culls, than the C1s, who include a lot of public sector professionals in relatively junior positions."
Jonathan Isaby
FINANCIAL TIMES 24.9.09
Labour’s support in north collapses
By Jean Eaglesham, Chief Political Correspondent
Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in the north of England, its traditional electoral stronghold, has collapsed under Gordon Brown, according to Financial Times research that shows David Cameron on course for a clear majority of English seats.
The loss of Labour’s northern bulwark is a fresh blow for the prime minister ahead of a potentially difficult and rebellious party conference next week.
Charles Clarke, a long-standing adversary and former cabinet colleague of Mr Brown, warned on Wednesday that the party would be “hammered” at the next general election, likely to be held in May, unless it changed direction.
The FT’s analysis of the most recent aggregated polling data, which allows sufficiently large sample sizes to show reliable regional and demographic trends, paints a bleak picture for Labour.
The Tories have built a narrow four-point lead in the north, eradicating the 19-point Labour lead in the region that underpinned Tony Blair’s last general election victory, the research shows. The 11.5 percentage point swing from Labour to the Tories in the north since the May 2005 poll is the largest for any region of Britain.
“The only reason Labour weren’t wiped out in England at the last election was their huge majority in the north,” Andrew Cooper, founder of Populus, the polling company, said.
The FT analysis suggests Mr Cameron has yet to win over fully pivotal “Middle England” voters. He has built a convincing lead among the well-off AB upper and upper-middle socio-economic groups. The Tories have achieved a big swing at the other end of the social divide, converting a 12-point deficit to Labour at the last election into a 14-point advantage in polling data for the past three months.
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