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Irish poll shows slump in support for Lisbon treaty

With 25% of voters undecided, government faces a tough battle to convince the public to vote yes in next month's referendum

• Henry McDonald, Ireland correspondent
• guardian.co.uk, Friday 4 September 2009 13.14 BST
• Article history

Support in Ireland for a yes vote in the forthcoming Lisbon treaty referendum has fallen over the summer, with a large proportion of the electorate still undecided.

The first major opinion poll of the referendum campaign shows that 46% would vote yes, a decline of 8 percentage points in support of the EU reform programme.

The Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll today finds that 25% of Irish voters still do not know whether they will support or reject the treaty.

Undecided voters played a late – and critical – role in the June 2008 referendum, when a majority switched to the no camp. This led to a rejection of the treaty, which plunged the entire European reform programme into chaos.

The opinion poll revealed that most of those withdrawing their support had shifted into the don't know category. The survey was undertaken early this week across 43 constituencies in the Irish Republic.

Despite a plea to voters by Enda Kenny, leader of Ireland's opposition, that the referendum was not a judgment on the ruling coalition, observers believed the decline in support for a yes vote was down to public anger over the handling of the recession.

Kenny said yesterday that it was "more important than ever" that Ireland strengthened its ties to Europe and vote yes next month.

The Fine Gael leader ruled out any prospect of a joint campaign with the other pro-European parties.

All four major parties in the Irish parliament, including the ruling Fianna Fáil-Green party coalition, back a yes vote on 2 October.

The Greens, however, face the greatest difficulties regarding the referendum vote. Of Green party supporters, 36% said they would vote no, compared with 31% who will support the Lisbon treaty.

Ireland's foreign minister, Michael Martin, admitted today that the yes camp faced a tough battle over the next four weeks to convince Irish voters to back Lisbon.

Martin, the director of Fianna Fáil's yes campaign, said: "I was never under any illusion that it would be difficult to secure this, but I do think we can do it. There is a very significant challenge ahead. It's going to be a very tight campaign and it will demand the resources, conviction, politics and passion of all those on the yes side."

Only one party represented in the Dáil, Sinn Féin, is urging a no vote. The opposition to the Lisbon treaty ranges from the hard left to the Catholic right and includes a number of major trade unions such as the Irish wing of Unite.

The trade union movement in Ireland, however, is split over Lisbon, with the country's largest union, Siptu, coming out in favour of a yes vote this week.

Rightwing religious opposition to Lisbon is centred on Cóir, a lobby group with links to the anti-abortion movement, Youth Defence. Cóir has argued that ratification of the treaty could lead to Ireland's ban on abortion being overturned by European courts. The Irish Catholic hierarchy, though, has stated that the Lisbon treaty poses no threat to the republic's abortion ban.