Saturday, 19 September 2009


Ethnic Loyalty
 
2009/09/17
BUDAPEST/BERLIN
 
(Own report) - The Hungarian President is calling for an enhancement of the German inspired policy toward minorities within the EU and for the appointment of an EU "commissary for minorities". In Berlin last week, László Sólyom declared that Brussels must create "legal and institutional guarantees" for granting ethnically defined minorities a special position, otherwise "the EU integration process would be endangered." This demand must be seen in the context of the ongoing controversy about the Hungarian speaking minority in Slovakia. Budapest is seeking closer ties to this minority, thereby driving a wedge between the various groups making up its neighboring country. Sólyom traveled to Germany, after Slovakia prevented him from unveiling a statue of a Hungarian national saint in a residential area of the ethnic Hungarian minority on the Hungarian national holiday. The Hungarian national saint is a traditional symbol representing "Greater Hungary". Hungarian efforts to obtain special rights for ethnic language minorities, is in line with German efforts to establish closer ties to the German speaking populations in neighboring countries - thereby subverting these countries sovereignty.
Mental Unity
The Hungarian President László Sólyom made an appearance in Berlin following serious controversies between Budapest and Bratislava on Hungary's repeated claim of representing the interests of Hungarian speaking minorities in neighboring countries. Hungarian is the mother language of approximately 500.000 Slovaks, 1.4 million Romanians, 300.000 Serbs, 150.000 Ukrainians and several thousand Croatians, Slovenians and Austrians. "On various occasions in history, it has happened that Hungary lived outside the Hungarian state borders," Sólyom told the German press at the beginning of September.[1] Today, one can find "a lingual and mental unity in eight countries, with Hungary included." And the Hungarian president insisted in Berlin, that "Hungarians abroad" must to be allowed to preserve "their language and cultural traditions", but above all "their historical unity."[2]
National Saint
Sólyoms most recent attempt to strengthen the "mental unity" between the "Hungarians abroad" and the mother country ended last August in a diplomatic éclat. On August 21, the Hungarian president sought to travel to Komárno, a town in southern Slovakia and a stronghold of the Hungarian speaking minority of Slovakia. He had intended to unveil a statue of St. Stephan, the founder of the Hungarian state. Celebrated as a saint in Hungary, he symbolizes "Greater Hungary" including all regions where Hungarian speaking minorities live. The unveiling of the statue took place right after the Hungarian national holiday (August 20). Bratislava protested against this provocation and prevented Sólyom, who refused to alter his plans, from entering the country. The controversy between the two states has been escalating since.[3]
Source of Tension
According to Sólyom, "the situation of national minorities has to be treated at the European level." Controversies, such as with Slovakia's Hungarian speaking minority, represent a "source of tension" that "could endanger the integration process." The EU must immediately "create legal and institutional guarantees for its national minorities," demanded Sólyom last week in a speech at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin. He demanded not only "accords regulating the situation of national minorities," but even institutional guarantees. Sólyom called for appointing a member of the EU commission "to be particularly in charge of national minorities affairs".[4] As an example, he mentioned a "coherent cultural unity" that needs to be preserved in the case of Hungary and "Magyars abroad".
Close Ties to Germany
Slovak politicians are accusing Hungary of driving a wedge between the populations in Slovakia with this "unity" between the Hungarians and the "Magyars abroad". Slovak President Ivan Gašparovič recently confirmed that relations between Slovak and the Hungarian speaking Slovak citizens in the South of the country are clearly deteriorating, due to Hungary's "minorities" offensive.[5] Yet, Berlin supports the Hungarian president's ethnic policy, because it is itself pushing for closer ties to German speaking minorities (german-foreign-policy.com reported [6]). Sólyom moreover, personally has close ties to Germany. In the 1980s, he came repeatedly to the Federal Republic of Germany for studies as a fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. As a jurist, he maintains contact to prominent German constitutional jurists. Following the collapse of the socialist system, he became the founding president of the Hungarian constitutional court. According to the German press, he "not only reads rulings of the German Constitutional Court in the original language", he "also transmits them to his colleagues" in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.[7]
Secession
Sólyom, an honorary doctorate of the University of Cologne and a laureate of the Great Federal Cross of Merit with Star, the West German Medal of Honor, had particularly been in cooperation with the late Georg Brunner, a professor of "Eastern European Law." This is noteworthy because Brunner, born in 1936 in Budapest and a West German resident since his flight from Hungary in 1956, had been thoroughly studying Hungary, his and Sólyom's mother country. During the '90s, when he was working with Sólyom, Brunner was deliberating the question whether the various Hungarian speaking residential enclaves in other countries ("parts of southern Slovakia, the Carpathian region in the Ukraine (...) as well as Serbia's northern Vojvodina") should secede from those neighboring countries, because they comprise "compact Hungarian settled areas" with ethnically pure "Hungariandom."[8] Officially, Sólyom denies today having been in favor of secession at the time.
Carpathian Basin
But the "Forum of Hungarian Parliamentarians in the Carpathian Basin", founded in March 2008 is an example of how Hungarian influence can be enhanced at the expense of the neighboring countries. The Forum was officially initiated at the decision of the Hungarian parliament and unites parliamentarians from Hungary and from the regions of "Hungarians abroad". Last Friday, it provoked discord in neighboring countries, when Slovak parliamentarians of the Hungarian speaking minority traveled to Budapest, where the "Forum of Hungarian Parliamentarians in the Carpathian Basin" was in session, rather than attend the session of the Slovak parliament in Bratislava. Hungarian government measures in favor of "Magyars abroad" were also on the agenda in Budapest. The Slovak parliamentarians' choice clearly demonstrates that, even without a revision of the borders, in a conflict of dates etc., they are loyal to their ethnic mother country Hungary rather than to Slovakia.
The Principle of Interference
 
2009/09/16
BEIJING/BERLIN
 
(Own report) - With sharp German criticism of human rights violations in Central Asia, the EU proceeded yesterday, Tuesday, with its negotiations for cooperation with the countries of that region. These negotiations, along the lines of an "EU Central Asian Strategy" successfully imposed by Berlin in 2007, are aimed at assuring German-European influence over the resources rich region along the Caspian Sea. This is of significant geostrategic importance. Against the opposition, put up by several EU countries, the German government has for years been ignoring the question of human rights violations, in Uzbekistan among others, so as not to impinge upon the efforts to develop cooperation. Government advisors in Berlin are now warning that China's influence in Central Asia is growing and blocking the development of closer links to Europe. It is a fact that Beijing's efforts to obtain access to the resources of Central Asia are quite successful. Berlin is increasing its pressure and is using suspected human rights violations to strengthen its own position.
Human Rights
The German Foreign Ministry reported that Minister of State, Gernot Erler (SPD), demonstratively met on Tuesday, during the EU-Central Asia meeting, with an expert of the Human Rights Watch organization, to raise the issue of human rights with the Central Asian countries. Over the past few years, Berlin has been able to get the EU - Central Asia Strategy and the EU's cooperation with the countries of that region accepted, in spite of the serious opposition being put up by several EU governments. The human rights violations in Uzbekistan cannot be simply ignored, was the protest to the German government. A British ambassador in Tashkent quit his post a few years ago, out of protest against Uzbek torture practice. Berlin has not only helped Uzbekistan to overcome its diplomatic isolation from the West,[1] but also helped Kazakhstan to be in line for the OSCE chairmanship, in spite of serious accusations against its government.[2] The primary objective of Berlin's political rapprochement is to obtain access to Central Asia's oil and natural gas reserves.[3]
Rivalries
The West is not only fighting in Africa but in Central Asia as well against the growing influence of the People's Republic of China, whose economy needs a share of the reserves of natural resources. In the aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the USA, Great Britain, France and particularly Germany had sought to stake out their claims to spheres of influence in confrontation with Russia. They have now been joined by the People's Republic of China, a new "global player" in the region which is considered to be politically and economically instable because of rivalries between the external powers. The reinforced Chinese engagement is advantageous for the Central Asian governments. They had been able to maintain a certain degree of independence by playing off US-American, Russian and European interests against one another. China's engagement allows them an even stronger independence from Russian influence, without politically subordinating themselves to the predominating powers of the EU or the USA.
Regime Change
The fact that Beijing abides by the principle of non-interference in the domestic affairs of the respective countries, Chinese investments can be assured of the support of the governments in the region. Since the governments in Georgia (2003) and the Ukraine (2004) were overthrown, the USA and the leading powers of the EU have been pursuing a policy of "regime change" ("color revolutions"), to place pro-western personnel into power and permanently enhance their economic possibilities in the former Soviet sphere of influence.[4] But in Central Asian countries, this strategy has not been successful. For these governments deeply in debt to the West, the latent threat of western intervention into their domestic affairs, in cases of political disfavor, make the Chinese investors appear to be the preferable partners.
No Success
Back in 2005, a study of the Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) drew the conclusion that the possibility of a western financed and organized putsch should not be exaggerated. The author had done research into the domestic situation in Kirgizstan, where a putsch ("Tulip Revolution") had not achieved the desired international shift in the balance of power.[5] The paper warns that the "closed nature of the power elite in office" should not be underestimated nor the "degree of organization as well as the political maturity of oppositional forces" overestimated. After the experience of the civil war in the 90s, the population is not interested in a real "change of power," particularly since the government has bought the goodwill of the majority impoverished population with social welfare measures.
Lack of Transparency
Berlin is regularly complaining of the "lack of transparency" of the political structures of the five Central Asian countries that are based more on paternalist obstruction and protégé policies rather than "norms of rule of law." Large scale new discoveries of oil and natural gas deposits, for example in Turkmenistan, can only be exploited with great technical difficulties and high initial investments, which primarily must come from Europe,[6] according to a recent analysis from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The Central Asian governments' political will to survive is an obstacle to the implementation of the necessary "drastic reforms" demanded by the EU. Given the contradictions between the leading EU nations, even on central projects, such as the Nabucco Pipeline, destined to render the Russian Gazprom Network dispensable, the EU would be completely "disqualified as a credible partner." As long as Brussels does not pursue a coherent policy toward the Central Asian countries, the "prerequisites for a viable partnership" between the EU and the Central Asian countries will be non-existent.
The Principle of Non Interference
With its consequent policy of non-interference, the People's Republic of China has succeeded in gaining key positions as a long term economic partner. The government of Turkmenistan, for example, intends to conclude a long term cooperation treaty with China that includes the construction of a pipeline capable of transporting 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Western China, due to be ready for operation this year. This would make China the second largest importer of Turkmenistan's natural gas, right behind Russia. The Chinese project is not only contrary to Russian but also to German-European interests, because Berlin and the EU are striving to obtain access to Turkmenistan's natural gas. The pipeline to China that is now under construction offers Beijing a reliable guarantee for durable supplies that will no longer be at the disposal of Germany and the EU.
Air Force Base
This pipeline not only jeopardizes their access to oil, gas and other natural resources, it is also changing the geo-political constellation. Just recently, Uzbekistan shut down US military bases in favor of a mutual assistance treaty with Russia. The Bundeswehr air force base in Termez is the last remaining western military base in Uzbekistan. Situated near the border to Afghanistan, it is of strategic importance for western activities in Central Asia. For years the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) has been warning that the Uzbek government is turning away from western allies in favor of a closer cooperation with Russia and China.[7]
Project Silk Road
The German media has warned against China's new "Project Silk Road". During the 2006 "Silk Road Investment Forum" meeting in China, the four Central Asian nations, Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan met together to develop closer economic and political cooperation. For Kazakhstan, China has become its principal business partner, with raw materials comprising 80% of Kazakhstan's exports to the People's Republic. The proportion of raw materials in the Turkmen-Chinese balance of trade is even higher. Even Kirgizstan, with much less natural resources, is economically closely linked to the People's Republic, with 60% of its exports comprised of natural resources. According to the press in Berlin, all this "stifles too high business hopes" of the West having a chance in Central Asia. "Up to now, all processes have been developing in favor of the People's Republic of China."[8] It is high time to supplement the past few years' cooperation efforts with a few points of leverage, including human rights in Central Asia, which until now of little interest to Berlin, are among them.