| On the horns of a dilemma | |
This, part of the paper’s continuing feature on the EU, is a fairish account of the situation and I send it mainly for the record.
Christina
TELEGRAPH 21.9.09
EU: Why David Cameron is keeping quiet about Europe
'I will do such things. What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be the terrors of the earth.” King Lear’s incoherent threat could be the inspiration for David Cameron’s policy on the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty.
By James Kirkup
The Tory leader has promised a referendum on the document, but only if it has not been ratified by all 27 EU members. If he comes to power and the Treaty is in force, the Tories “will not let matters rest”.
In effect, Mr Cameron’s policy is one of prevarication: we’re not telling you, yet. But the moment of clarity may be drawing closer. On October 2, the Irish vote for a second time on the treaty, with polls predicting a narrow Yes vote. By baleful coincidence for Mr Cameron, the Irish vote comes barely 48 hours before the Conservatives’ annual conference in Bournemouth.
Publicly, Tory frontbenchers insist that all is still to play for, that the result remains in doubt and until the last Irish vote is counted, their policy remains unchanged. Privately, however, there is real anxiety among senior Conservatives. People close to Mr Cameron fear that an Irish Yes will refocus attention on his non-policy over the referendum and stir up trouble among the grassroots and on the backbenches.
An outbreak of Tory infighting over Europe in Bournemouth is very much not part of the Cameron script, which describes a party united in preparation for Government. Mark Francois, the shadow Europe minister, accepts that the current position cannot last. “We will not go into the general election simply with a policy that we shall not let matters rest,” he told The Daily Telegraph. “We will have more to say between now and then.”0
But what? That remains studiously unclear. Kenneth Clarke, the last remaining pro-European Tory heavyweight, has suggested that after ratification the party would abandon all hope of a referendum and focus instead on a pledge, first made in 2005, to return some legal powers over social and employment law from Brussels to Westminster.
Such dry, technocratic fare would hardly satisfy the majority of Tories, who crave red meat on Europe. Yet Mr Cameron is painfully aware that a referendum on a ratified treaty would be the nuclear option: many in Brussels would argue that the vote would effectively be a decision on Britain’s continued membership of the EU. And while some Tories (and not a few voters) might relish the prospect, leaving the EU is not on the Cameron agenda. Nor is any major institutional European battle, at least not in the early years of a Cameron government. The Tory leader knows that he will need all his political capital to enact the deep cuts in public spending that will be required.
So, for as long as possible, Mr Cameron hopes to keep his European intentions hidden, and pray that the subject stays out of the headlines. The good news for Mr Cameron is that some of his party are prepared to go on giving him the benefit of the doubt. His decision in June to honour a promise to withdraw Tory MEPs from the European People’s Party bloc in the European Parliament has led to Labour accusations of extremism and riled pro-EU Tories.
But, just as he intended, it has given Mr Cameron credibility in the eyes of Eurosceptics. In the words of one heavyweight Eurosceptic: “He has a lot of credit in the bank from the EPP withdrawal. A lot of people didn’t think he would ever do it. The fact that he did is very reassuring.”
The imminent election also weighs in Mr Cameron’s favour. After more than a decade in opposition, Tory MPs are hungry for power. For many, getting back into Government is even more important than airing their European grievances. They are prepared to hold their tongues, at least until after an election victory.
One strong sceptic on the Tory frontbench is frank: “Is our current policy satisfactory? Of course not. But if you think I’m going to jeopardise an election victory by starting to speak out about that in public, you’ve got another think coming.”
Assuming the Irish vote Yes, Mr Cameron will reach for one last figleaf to conceal the absence of a clear plan on the treaty. His last hope lies in Prague, where Vaclav Klaus, the Czech president, is dragging his feet over ratifying the treaty. The Czech constitutional court is currently considering one appeal relating to the Treaty, and Mr Klaus says he won’t sign it while the court is deliberating. A court appeal will soon be launched by Czech senators from the ODS party, part of the same European Parliament bloc as the Conservatives.
Geoffrey van Orden, a Tory MEP, is clear about his party’s message to the Czechs: “Our hope is they will not ratify this treaty until the general election in the UK.” If the Czechs are able to hold up ratification until after a UK election, a new Tory government could then quickly move to a UK referendum.
Few in Brussels doubt the outcome of such a vote, and the European establishment is putting intense pressure on Mr Klaus. Mr Cameron’s team know that there is only a faint hope that Mr Klaus will be able to hold out until next summer. So they are fearfully preparing to come to power with the Treaty set in stone.
The likely arrival of a staunchly sceptical generation of new Tory MPs only sharpens that anxiety. Given the pent-up feeling within his party and the (domestic and international) political stakes, it is perhaps understandable that William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, has privately advised Mr Cameron that Europe is a “ticking timebomb” under his leadership.
A few optimistic Tories believe that Mr Cameron will ultimately be able to defuse that bomb. But most think that the best he can hope for is to keep resetting the clock and delay the eventual explosion.
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