There are plenty of qualifications and warnings in this report but that won’t stop the headline writers. The Telegraph front page leads with the story below and the Guardian crows with similar prominence that the recession is “officially over”.
The media are quite beyond much comment! No sense of responsibility at all.
Christina
TELEGRAPH 9.9.09
UK recession is over, NIESR says
The UK's recession is over, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research has predicted, with the economy returning to growth for the first time since May last year.
The forecaster's latest estimate showed a 0.2 per cent rise in output in the three months through August following a 0.3 per cent decline in the three months to July.
The announcement follows official data released this morning showing manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since January 2008.
However, the predictions clash with figures published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development earlier this month which indicated that the economy would not expand until 2010.
NIESR said the figures reinforced its view that the recession has been over since May - although the body incorrectly predicted earlier this year that the downturn ended in March.
The forecaster warned however a return to growth should not be confused with a full economic recovery.
It added: ''There may well be a period of stagnation now, with output rising in some months and falling in others; the end of the recession should not be confused with a return to normal economic conditions.''
Economists predict estimates from the Office for National Statistics on output for the June to September period to a show a return to growth after a decline of 0.7 per cent during the second quarter.
Manufacturing figures today showed a 0.9 per cent rise in output between June and July - the sector's best performance in more than three years - boosted by recovering production among car makers. [the special car ‘crunching’ scheme-cs]
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