Saturday 31 October 2009

Celebrating A Decade of Reckoning
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The Daily Reckoning Weekend Edition
Gold Coast, Australia
Saturday, October 31, 2009

  • The word on Peak Oil - from crisis and opportunity perspectives,
  • Emerging markets over the long and short term,
  • The Aussies suffer a week worth forgetting and plenty more...
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    Joel Bowman, back in his natural habitat, reports from the Gold Coast, Australia...

    One of the first things one notices about Australia after having been away for any length of time is the arresting color scheme. We rode the train from Brisbane Airport down to our family's house here on The Gold Coast this morning. The track weaves through a rich tapestry of yellows and oranges.

    Almost everything is some shade of a rusted auburn...from the corrugated iron roofs of the old Queenslander homes to the railroad spikes to the doors on the old Holden automobiles and, of course, the shoulders of the outdoor, sports-loving people. The "Sunburned Country," they call it.

    Your editor arrived on Friday, a day after the Aussie stock market shed $30 billion dollars, or about 2.7%. It was the forth consecutive day the index ended in the red. The Aussie dollar, after having outpaced gold's meteoric rise over the past few months, also fell against the greenback. We hadn't seen Friday's numbers when we jotted these few notes on the train but, all in all, it wasn't a great week for the Aussie markets.

    Nevertheless, most businesses here are of the mind that the worst of the economic crisis is long gone. Eighty-five percent of businesses said as much, according to the Veda Advantage Business Sentiment survey, released to
    The Australian this week. Moreover, over half of respondents said Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's record-breaking $42 billion stimulus did not improve business prospects in any meaningful way. We'll see how they do when the taps run dry, as they soon will.

    Appetite for risk, you see, is eroding. Investors around the globe are beginning to ask themselves exactly what this "recovery" is founded on and whether it can last. The IMF warns that growth in the Asian region is set to fall again. They caution that poor economic data from the US will continue to dampen export-reliant Asian economies...especially once government gifts and stopgaps expire.

    We'll "see how she goes," as they say, during the week and, between barbeques and beers with friends, we'll bring you a few notes from our temporary post.

    But, for now, please read on for the week's
    Daily Reckoning columns and highlights. Also, feel free to email us your thoughts at the address below...

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    ALSO THIS WEEK in The Daily Reckoning:

    The Truth About Energy
    By Puru Saxena
    Hong Kong, China


    After oscillating within a trading range for several weeks, the price of crude oil has recently broken out to a new recovery high. Now, you will recall that we have been firm believers of 'Peak Oil' since 2003 and we were expecting this bullish resolution.


    Peak Oil - The Risks
    By Byron King
    Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania


    Eighty-five million barrels a day.

    That's the world's current production of crude oil...and that may very well be close to the world's PEAK production of crude oil. Although the recession caused a temporary decrease in consumption, demand is already bouncing back toward pre-crisis levels. Too bad production isn't.


    Peak Oil - The Rewards
    By Byron King
    Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania


    We should expect a global oil shock by 2012...at the latest. But an oil shock doesn't have to be completely shocking. Why not beat the rush and get ready for the shock now. You might even make a few dollars in the process.


    The Kiss of Debt
    By Bill Bonner
    Gualfin, Argentina


    Regular readers of this space will recognize this as the third in a series. Irregular readers will not recognize it at all. They will look at us as though we had come from Mars. Earthlings are all convinced that a financial crisis of cosmic proportions is upon us. Had the authorities failed to act last autumn, with determination and speed, it would have been the end of the world. In the popular mind the politicians have saved capitalism from its own excesses.

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    And the Daily Endnote: We have only one final thought today, dear reader: that half a raw onion is the best thing to clean a barbeque with, hands down.

    We'll be back next week with more thoughts. In the meantime, why not send us a few thoughts of your own. We'd love to here 'em.

    Until next time...

    Cheers,

    Joel Bowman
    The Daily Reckoning
    joel@dailyreckoning.com
     
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