THERE'S NOUGHT SO BLIND AS THOSE THAT THINK THEY SEE !!!!!!

Nooooooo, it's Yes! - by Richard... Saturday, October 03, 2009

eureferendum.blogspot.com

FINAL: It's over. All 43 results are in. The national result is 67.1 percent for the "yes" campaign and 32.9 percent for the "noes". It is being called "swing Saturday". Unlike the second Nice vote, where the "no" vote stayed firm and more "yes" voters turned out, there has been clear evidence of a shift in sentiment, on top of the six percent increase in turnout. Either way, the Irish have sold the pass. It's down to Klaus now.

UPDATE: The president of the EU parliament, Jerzy Buzek, said the result was "good news for Ireland and good news for Europe" but said it was "not the end of the story. Now we must start to work to overcome the difficulties. Our citizens are afraid of the energy issue, the unemployment rate, about immigration, demography and we can do that together, as it was before, also in the future, in solidarity." 

"We should also think about those who were answering 'no' because it is our habit and it is our custom to think about all Europeans. I can assure (you) I will work very hard and do feel that it is our common Europe. Let us write our common European history."

UPDATE: Gerry Adams says the Irish political establishment had ignored the decision of the Irish voters after the first Lisbon referendum. They would regret the day they ignored the views of "no" voters this time.

UPDATE: More from Barroso: "Thank you Ireland ... the Irish people have spoken – they have said a resounding 'yes' to Europe. I'm extremely happy at this resounding vote for Europe." And when they said "no"?

UPDATE: Only three constituencies to declare: Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin North Central and Longford-Westmeath. Sinn Féin Senator Pearse Doherty says he is delighted with the "no" vote in Donegal. It is a clear signal from people in the county that they will not be bullied by the government. A decisive victory for the "bully boys" says Farage. Out of fear, a small country has been bullied into changing its vote. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said the result was "a mature reflective decision and the Irish people had risen above cynicism, frustration and anger and had put their country first."

Nationwide turnout is 59.2 percent (1,674,897), up 6 percent on the 2008 referendum.

UPDATE: Klaus is keeping shtum. He has declined to say how he would proceed on the Czech ratification. "The question does not exist today. Today I have a ban...until the Constitutional Court releases something," he said.

UPDATE: Brown joins in the chorus - "The treaty is good for the UK and good for Europe. We can now work together to focus on the issues that matter most to Europeans: a sustained economic recovery, security, tackling global poverty, and action on climate change." Now 33 results in ... 66.8-33.2 percent.

UPDATE: "Now that all Member States have democratically approved the Lisbon Treaty," says Barroso, "I hope that the necessary procedures for its entry into force can be completed as quickly as possible in Poland and the Czech Republic. Today was indeed a great day for the European Union."

UPDATE: Brian Cowen has formally declared victory. There are now 28 results in ... 66.9-33.1 - a two-to-one margin. 

UPDATE: With 23 (of 43) results in, well over half way, the "yes" vote is holding up, at 67.8 percent – as against 32.2 percent for "no". Turnout is 59.6 percent – higher than 2008. The result of the day will be Dublin South, which voted "yes" with a resounding 81.67 percent, only 18.3 percent voting against.

After all the nervous tension, the "colleagues" are now relaxing. There had been suggestions that Sweden might call an extra meeting to put pressure on Vaclav Klaus but Swedish prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt - holder of the EU presidency – says there is now no need for one. Discussions are going to be left for the European Council in October.

UPDATE: EU commission president, José Manuel Barroso, says the result "shows the value of European solidarity". Nigel Farage compares the referendum to a corrupt election in Zimbabwe or Afghanistan. Twelve results in now, and the trend is holding at 64.6 for the "yes" side. It's all over bar the shouting. The battle now begins.

UPDATE: Nine of 43 counts completed ... running at 64.8 percent "yes" and 35.2 "no", with an average swing of 20.2 percent. Turnout 58.9 percent. That looks to be a firm trend established. Results as they come in can be seen here.

UPDATE: Kildare North has recorded a "yes" vote with 76.19 percent of the vote (32,012). A mere 23.81 percent (10,002) voted "no". The constituency voted "yes" in 2008, but the margin increased by 21.57 percent. Donegal North East has voted "no" - as expected. The vote was 51.46 percent (15,005) for the noes, and 48.54 percent (14,156) for "yes". That gives a swing to the "yes" side of 13.24 percent. Tipperary North has fallen in with the "children" and voted "yes" with 70.38 percent (25,768) of the votes, against 29.62 percent (10,846) "no". The swing is 20.58 percent on a turnout of 52 percent (down from 58.5 percent in 2008 when the vote was 50-49.6 in favour of the "no" campaign).

UPDATE: David Cameron has issued a statement, retailed here: "This weekend we will hear the results of the referendum in Ireland on the re-named EU Constitution. I want to make one thing clear: there will be no change in our policy on Europe and no new announcements at the conference." 

Kenneth Clarke will be happy. It would be a "disaster" if the conference was overshadowed by "a row about Europe", he says. He tells The Daily Telegraph, "Most people (i.e., himself), if you say shall we have a debate about the Treaty of Lisbon at our party conference will feel an inner shudder".

UPDATE: "This vote will strengthen the EU and enable it to act in a more unified manner in tackling the many global issues that it faces in today's world" says Joseph Daul, president of the EPP group in the EU parliament. "I particularly commend the Irish voters for the wisdom they exercised in distinguishing between the truth and the lies which unfortunately played such a prevalent part of this campaign," he crows says. And they still voted "yes"?

Liam Murphy, a Dublin cab driver and a "no" voter, says: "We have been fed lies and blackmailed with scaremongering about the economy. It is scaremongering by a government that just wants to hang on to its own jobs." At a polling station in the Dublin suburb of Tallaght, Kathleen Cummins said that the Irish had been "bullied and treated like children" into holding the second vote. And, like children, they've run to nanny.

UPDATE: First result in ... Tipperary South. 68.42 percent (22,712) voted "yes", while 31.58 percent (10,483) voted "no" - a 21.63 percent swing (last time 52.9-46.6 for the "no" campaign). Only ten of the 43 constituencies voted "yes" in 2008. Rhis time there will be a majority in nearly every constituency, says RTE.

UPDATE: Stephen Collins, political editor of the Irish Times offers his "take" on the "decisive victory" for the "yes" side. It is clear signal that the overwhelming majority of voters want Ireland to remain an outward looking country at the heart of the European project, rather than retreating back to an isolated position on the periphery, he says.

"The reasons for the big change of heart from the first referendum last year are many, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that economic crisis focused the minds of many voters on the importance of good relations with our EU neighbours in order to restore the country's prosperity."

UPDATE: A wipeout is being predicted - a clean sweep apart from Donegal North East, the only constituency where a "no" result looks certain.

UPDATE: Indications are that Cowen's constituency of Laois Offaly has again voted "yes". In 2008 the vote went 56 to 44 percent in favour of the treaty, but the early tallies with just under half the boxes open suggest that the "yes" vote could be as high as 70 percent. Nationwide, the "yes" vote is estimated to be in the region of 65 percent, up nearly 20 percent on 2008.

UPDATE: Foreign minister Michael Martin is claiming victory. "It looks like a convincing win," he says. "It's good for Ireland."

UPDATE: Ganley concedes defeat. "This is a very convincing win," the Libertas leader told reporters at the main Dublin counting centre. He accused the "yes" campaign of playing on the fears of many voters, particular in connection with jobs and said he would come back next October with the "Yes for Jobs" posters "and see how we are all doing".

UPDATE: Limerick East put up a turnout five percent above last time, with a high "no" vote in working class areas of the city, producing results in the 70 percent region. Tallies indicate a strong "yes" vote in South Roscommon, homeland of minister Michael Finneran. Some boxes were as high as 90 percent "yes". The vote seems to be split on "class" lines. Meanwhile, Jens Peter Bonde is saying that "Friday 2 October 2009 will be seen as a sad day in European history."

UPDATE: Ian Traynor for The Guardian writes that a "yes" vote will see Merkel and Sarkozy and others "move quickly to introduce the changes under the Lisbon treaty." Intense politicking, he writes, will immediately ensue over the two plum posts created by Lisbon: a president of Europe who will chair EU summits and serve for up to five years, and an EU foreign policy chief. And what about the Czechs and Poles? 

UPDATE: The wages of fear - all boxes are opened in Kerry North and tallies are indicating a 60:40 margin in favour of the "yes" side. Turnout was 50 percent. Sinn Féin TD for North Kerry, Martin Ferris, said the campaign run by "yes" side put fear into voters and had a huge effect.

UPDATE: Early tallies across the six Dublin city constituencies suggest a decisive victory for the "yes" side. The Dublin South West constituency, which recorded the highest "no" vote in the state last time, is now indicating a clear "yes" vote, probably in the region of 60 percent. However, the predominately working class areas of Jobstown, west Tallaght and Killinarden are remaining two to one in favour of a "no" vote, according to tallies.

With 50 percent of boxes opened in Dublin South, some 73.5 percent of votes appeared to be in favour of a "yes", compared with 62.5 percent last time, indicating a 10 percent jump in the "yes" vote.

UPDATE: RTE reports unofficial results indicate that the "yes" side is surging ahead. "It looks like a convincing win for the 'yes' side," foreign minister Michael Martin says. The first partial tally came from the constituency of Carlow-Kilkenny - which was exactly 50:50 in the first Lisbon Referendum, but is now said to be running two or three to one in favour of the treaty.

There is a huge swing towards "yes" in the Dublin constituencies with early tallies indicating a 60:40 breakdown for the "yes" side. In Dublin South, with 90 percent of ballot boxes opened, 62.9 percent were "yes". The southern city of Cork was showing a 66 percent trend in favour of the treaty. A "sea change" had also taken place in Cork rural constituencies according to the RTE correspondent.

UPDATE: Statement by Anthony Coughlan (who thinks we've lost). "Not the will of the people, but the fear of the people, has led a majority of Irish voters to approve ratifyng the Lisbon Treaty in yesterday's re-run referendum. 

Ireland's voters voted not on the content of Lisbon but on membership of the EU, on fear of political isolation if they did not say Yes to the same Treaty as they said No to last year, and on the promise of jobs and economic recovery which the Yes-side bullied and bamboozled them into believing was they would get if they only voted Yes. 

Thus the bankrupt Irish political Establishment, which has ruined its country's economy, has opted through stupidity and fear to clamp an undemocratic Constitution on itself and most of Europe."

UPDATE: Statement from our revered co-editor - If there really is a strong "yes" vote and the Irish whinge in a few months because they did not get what they were "promised", I shall laugh and laugh. 

UPDATE: The Independent is claiming that David Cameron faces "a major revolt" by Conservative party grassroots over his policy on Europe (it means the European Union). It cites a poll of "2,205 Tory members" which finds that more than eighty percent want him to call a referendum on the treaty, even if it has been fully ratified by the next general election. Where the Irish go, young David fears to tread.

UPDATE: Offical results expected at 5.30 this evening. Early tallies suggest "strong 'yes' vote".

UPDATE: Counting has started ... and more on that exit poll. A Fine Gael spokesman is claiming that the poll was conducted amongst a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 33 locations (approx 30 at each location). He claims "a massive 'yes' vote in Dublin, touching close to the 70 percent mark," while it was nearer to 60 percent in the rest of the country.

PREVIOUS: Europe is holding its breath after polls closed in Ireland's controversial Lisbon Treaty referendum re-run, we are told by the Press Association.

Casting his ballot in his home county of Offaly in the Midlands, Taoiseach Brian Cowen was cautiously optimistic of a pro-Lisbon Treaty win. "The people's decision is sovereign and of course that will be the case, but I'm hopeful that in the context of today we'll have a good outcome," he said.

Words fail me!

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Will it rise again? - by Richard...

"The European Union will find a way to implement the Lisbon treaty, leaving Ireland potentially isolated within the EU. And there will be another Irish referendum at some point, probably in the first half of next year."

That was the view (or expectation) of Wolfgang Münchau, columnist for The Financial Times, written on 15 June last year, three days after the Irish had gone to the polls, delivering a "no" victory with 53.2 percent of the vote, against 46.1 percent "yes".

Münchau was wrong only on the timing. And, with the polls having closed at 10pm last night, for the re-run, the Irish Times rushed out the results of a "preliminary" Fine Gael exit poll, which suggested 52 percent for the "yes" side and 48 percent for the "no" campaign. This was quickly revised to become 60 percent "yes" and 40 percent "no", which stands as the definitive prediction.

After the 2008 referendum, there was no published exit poll, but the results of an unattributed poll were circulating, claiming 54-46 percent in favour of the "yes" campaign, with a margin of +/-3. This, as we soon found out, was not to be.

As to turnout, the Irish Times is reporting that Dublin and Munster was substantially up "on last year", in contrast to many other parts of the country, where it was described as "slow and low". The total turnout across the 43 constituencies was reported to be about 50 percent by the time the polls closed, which compares with the 53.1 percent for the last referendum so, on the face of it, there seems to be little change. As before, there seem to be sharp variations in different constituencies.

The turnout was said to be particularly strong in Dún Laoghaire, which had the biggest vote in favour of the treaty in 2008. It was also high in Dublin South West, one of the constituencies with the biggest "no" vote last year. The turnout in commuter counties in Leinster, which have large populations of people working in Dublin, showed a sharp rise towards to close and was as high as 60 percent in some areas.

What no one knows yet is the influence of the "God effect". Last time, the "yes" campaign had the support of the Pope, whereas this time the Vatican seems to have turned away from the "project".

One could possibly draw inferences from the reversal, but it would be unwise to do so. Instead, I will remind you of the words of my co-editor who, in the aftermath of the "no" victory last year,wrote that the treaty was not dead. "It ought to be but it ain't," she added. "Dracula will rise from the grave again."

Until the thing has a stake through its heart, a silver bullet lodged in its brain, is buried under tons of soil taken from consecrated ground, sprinkled with holy water and ringed with crucifixes, it ain't never going to be dead. But whether it will rise again later today remains to be seen. The fat lady ain't sung yet.

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Previous results - by Richard...

For those wishing to follow the results today, blow-by-blow, we have reproduced here a consolidated list of the results from the last Irish referendum, plus the Nice results. Click the pic to enlarge. We'll be live blogging tomorrow, from about 10 am, to pick up news and reaction as it comes in.


I am opening up a separate comment thread on the forum, headed "Irish referendum results", and will keep that live for the duration (link below). To avoid confusion and duplication, I'll lock the previous threads.

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The Irish nemesis - by Richard... Friday, October 02, 2009

There is a very large measure of comfort in prospect of a "yes" vote in the Irish referendum. For, if as widely predicted - although by no means in the bag - the Europhiles prevail and the vote clears the way for the full ratification of the constitutional Lisbon treaty, today, 2 October, will go down in history as the day the EU started to unravel.

To understand why this might be the case, one has to delve into the deeper recesses of the "project", way down into the engine room. There, one will discover, as I did an obscure animal, known as the "dual international quasi-legislation/comitology mechanism". In this creature, which is far more common than most would even begin to imagine, lies the reason why the EU has been successful.

And, if the EU had stuck to their "diqules", as they have come to be known, it would have lasted forever. But hubris has intervened in the form of the constitutional Lisbon treaty, and that will be its downfall, its nemesis. Let me explain - for the secret of the current success of the EU lies in six reasons.

Firstly, at the heart of modern government (in fact central to all levels of government, local to international) is a terrible secret. Government is boring. In fact, it is more than boring. It is mind-numbingly, crashingly tedious - the sort of tedium that, if it was instituted as a form of torture would even be banned by the Peoples' Republic of China as inhumane.

Secondly, most government is invisible. What you see on the television and read in the newspapers is only the tiniest fraction of what actually goes on. We get to know about less than one percent of one percent, and the politicians even less. And so boring is it that we don't even want to know.

Thirdly, most politicians have no aptitude for government and few even understand how it works. They are, therefore, in the main, entirely content to let their officials run the nuts and bolts, while they act as front men for the system, going on the jollies and working the media.

Fourth, the European Union has become part of a nexus of legislative bodies, linking international agencies of the United Nations with regional, national and local bodies, to form one continuous, seam-free administrative machine. So embedded is it in the administrative fabric of this and other nations, that the national systems could not function with it.

Fifth, this situation, far from being unwelcome, is highly convenient to the ruling and administrative classes. It saves them no end of work and relieves them of the obligation of having to pay lip-service to democratic procedures.

Sixth, the system acts as a useful lightning conductor, diverting dissent into the labyrinthine maw of international institutions, where activists can be contained, absorbed and then neutralised (or bought off), leaving national actors untroubled… you can always blame the EU.

Over and above that, the system is now so complex that no one (not even the players) really understand it, so no one will be brave enough to touch it in case they break something they don't know how to fix. And, since it defeats even the players' attempts, the critics do not have a chance. The likes of Eurosceptics can be left to blather uselessly round the edges, their criticism so unfocussed and wide of the mark that it has little effect.

Here, one can take a core objection of the sceptics – that sixty, seventy, or is it eighty percent of our laws are now "made in Brussels". Much of this, of course, is dry technical stuff, like the dimensions of rear view mirrors on busses, the composition of cheeses from various regions, or the level of permitted toxic emissions from crematoria.

Now, while this sort of law may come from "Brussels", it would be more accurate to say that it has a Brussels label. But the bulk are no more EU than they are national laws.

Behind that screen, there are hundreds – possibly thousands - of what are known as "quasi-legislative bodies", working on a global and regional scale. These act under the aegis of obscure organisations such as the OIE, which deals with animal health issues, CODEX alimentarius, created in 1963 by FAO and WHO to develop food standards, guidelines and related texts such as codes of practice, the IPCC which, of course, deals with climate change matters, and the World Health Organisation, which deals with public health and infectious diseases. 

Another of these fascinating organisations is UNECE, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe – with not 27 countries but 56, including Turkey and Kazakhstan and also, for historical reasons, the United States.

One of its particular functions is to deal with transport, acting via a skein of agreements and conventions, such as the "Agreement Concerning the Adoption of Uniform Conditions of Approval and Reciprocal Recognition of Approval for Motor Vehicle Equipment and Parts, done at Geneva on 20 March 1958", copy here.

It is actually through this Agreement that international standards are worked out for things like the size of rear-view mirrors for busses, which are then handed down to the EU. It then implements them as law in the member states. 

The standards themselves are not law, but become law in the EU once implemented, which is done through the comitology system, the twin-track process – through UNECE and the EU – which has acquired that rather cumbersome title of "dual international quasi-legislation/comitology mechanism".

Interestingly, the EU does not get a look in when it comes to formulating these standards, but countries like Norway do. The EU is then used to write the specific legislation for Norway as a member of the EEA. So much for "fax-machine" law. The commission is simply acting as a service provider, making laws for states which have already agreed at a higher international level to implement them.

That digression aside, so useful to the member states are the technical/legislative services provided by the EU – and so necessary are they to the functioning of modern economies – that it is unthinkable that any member state could or would even wish to dispense with them.

Therein lies the genius of the EU. It has harnessed these essential administrative functions to its own ambitions, creating structures and institutions to deal with them in the hope, one day, they will be transformed into something more than a technical organisation. Then, they hope, the EU will be able to assume wider responsibilities in the "high" political areas which include foreign policy and defence. That is what the constitutional Lisbon treaty is all about.

As we observe, so far the Union has been successful. It is still in the game, its ambitions are intact and it is exercising power. But, in the new treaty, it has over-reached itself. It is moving from its "invisible" base to take on board the "high politics" spectrum. But with the additional powers it acquires, it becomes much more intrusive and much more visible. Therein lies its vulnerabilty. 

For as long as the "elephant in the room" could be ignored, for as long as it confined itself to the engine room, the political classes have been content to let it continue. They have been able to carry on with their preening and posturing, keeping up the pretence that they were still in change. But, as it becomes ever-more evident who is really in charge, even our most enthusiastic myopics will change their tunes.

With "Lisbon" in the bag, the EU will flex its muscles even more and there will come a point where the number of people it upsets will outnumber those who appreciate its value. The balance of utility will change and the EU will go. Strangely, therefore, getting a "no" vote in Ireland would be the best thing that could have happened to the EU. 

But the "colleagues" could never leave well enough alone. If they get their "yes", it will not be the end, or even the beginning of the end. But, as a certain person once said, it will be the end of the beginning. Soon enough, we will see that tipping point in the balance of utility, and from there it will be downhill all the way. For that, if they vote "yes", we will have the Irish to thank.

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Today's the day - by Richard...

Actually, the voting on the outlying islands started two days ago. And, according to The Times, the very first vote was cast in Barry Edgar Pilcher's living room in Raven Cottage on Inishfree - it went to the "no" campaign.

Mr Pilcher, 66, a London-born artist and musician, serenaded locals on his saxophone as they voted. "I voted 'no' because I think we shouldn't give our power away," Mr Pilcher said. Turnout was high, with five of Inishfree's seven eligible voters casting a ballot. Patsy Dan Rodgers, the "king" of neighbouring Tory Island, said most of the 150 islanders would vote "no" – rather appropriate for the "Tories". 

With the vote expected to favour the "yes" camp, however, God – or, at least, the Vatican, which is not quite the same thing – has made an unexpected intervention, warning that the European Union threatens Ireland's "identity, traditions and history". 

This is Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, the Vatican secretary of state, who spoke during the Pope's visit to the Czech Republic, noting that: "Individual European countries have their own identity. The EU prescribes its laws or views to them and they do not have to fit with their traditions and history. Some countries are logically resisting this – for example, Ireland." 

Anodyne though this might be, it has been seized upon by the "no" camp in what is regarded as an increasingly acrimonious campaign, with prime minister Brian Cowen still lying through his teeth, claiming that he had secured "legal guarantees" from the EU on Irish concerns about the treaty.

Whatever the "yessies" might say about their level of support, Dr John O'Brennan, European politics lecturer at NUI Maynooth, is warning that the level of anger among Irish voters towards an unpopular government should not be under-estimated.

"If you talk to people all around the country," he says, "a level of anger is very, very high. Are people rational enough to put that aside and think of the interests of the country in the longer term? I'm not so sure." That is obviously from a Europhile and he may not have picked up another factor – more than a few Irish are a tad annoyed with being made to vote again, their first vote having been ignored by their political classes.

Results are not due until Saturday, and it will be mid-morning before we get an idea of which way the sentiment is going, but there is still some hope that the "piss off" factor will prevail and the Irish will have the sense to give the "colleagues" in Brussels a bloody nose.

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Let us stop and think - by Helen...

Today the people of Ireland go to the polls to vote in the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Its previous reincarnation as the Constitutional Treaty was thrown out by the people of France and Netherlands after which there was, as you may recall, a period of discussion and dialogue. Dialogue of the deaf since the creators of the new treaty discussed matters only with organizations they had themselves created as part of a controlled civil society. All other opinions such as “no, we do not want a constitution for Europe” were ignored.

Then they came back with a new version, which has fewer pages because the print was smaller but more words and which had dropped references to a flag and an anthem, thus making it, or so we were told, completely different from a constitution.

As it happens the United States Constitution has no references to anthems or flags (neither was in existence at the time) but it is still a constitution. So there was the Lisbon Treaty, which still proposed the creation of a President and announced that the supremacy of European law, hitherto decided on by Parliament, would now be based on the Constitution Lisbon Treaty.

There is an uncharacteristically calm and detailed discussion of the situation on Your Freedom and Ours (even though I say so myself).