Saturday, 10 October 2009

Celebrating A Decade of Reckoning
US Edition Home Contributors Media & Testimonials archives DR's 10th Anniversary
The Weekend Edition - October 10-11, 2009

  • A new record for gold...
  • The Mogambo with a look back at where silver was last year...
  • Leon T. Hadar on the new global reality for Washington...
  • Chris Mayer with investment themes from Qatar...
  • Addison Wiggin sends us his thoughts from Dubai...
  • Bill Bonner reminds us that Greenspan is still as blind as ever...
  • The Daily Reckoning's Highlight of the Week:


    Gold Heads into Outer Space
    Baltimore, Maryland


    This week saw yet another high for gold - sitting at $1,059...and many believe it's likely to go higher next week. Why? Bill Bonner sheds some light on the situation in this week's highlight, below...

    Sooner or later gold is probably headed to the lunatic moon. We're sticking with the yellow metal. We don't want to miss that ride.

    But when?

    Ah...we're going to stick our necks out and say "eventually." We're sure we're right about this. Just don't ask us for more precision; we have none. And what bothers us is that between eventually and now there could be a lot of time and a lot of trouble. And one trouble that could come up pretty fast is another crash in the stock market.

    If the stock markets of the world take another dive...like they did last year...gold will probably go down with them. Not as much, but down nonetheless. So, if we were speculating...we'd probably be short gold and short stocks too. We'd bet against bonds too - even though we think they will probably go up in the short run. The smart, long-term money - in both stocks and bonds - is probably on the short side.

    Here at
    The Daily Reckoning, however, we never speculate - except in print. As to ideas about how the world works we have plenty. We speculate daily. As to gold, stocks and commodities, we prefer to hold onto our long-term positions.

    What seems fairly sure to us is that this recovery is a fraud. It's a mountebank and a flimflam.

    And now approaches a moment of truth - earnings announcements. Stock market investors bid up shares on the theory that sales and profits would rise. Will they? We don't think so.

    We think sales are going to be disappointing...and earnings will be even worse. If so, we'll see analysts begin to change their expectations...and announce that the results are "not as bad as expected."

    If we get a few really bad announcements - with results much worse than expected - it could sink the rally. Then again, if we're surprised with exceptionally good reports...it could send the market in the other direction.

    Good results will also cause us here at
    The Daily Reckoning to question our position. Maybe the economy is not sinking into a chronic depression, after all. Could we be wrong?

    Ha ha...are you kidding, dear reader? Of course, we can be wrong. When we were younger we were uncertain about things. But now that we're older, we're not so sure.

    [We are sure, however, that this recovery is a fraud...and could be more harmful to your existing wealth than you realize. Learn how to protect your assets (and build on your already-existing wealth) in our free special report.
    Get it here.]
    The above is just an excerpt from Bill's standout essay from this week. You can read it in its entirety on The Daily Reckoning site - it's an essay you don't want to miss. Get it here.
    ALSO THIS WEEK in The Daily Reckoning: Playing a little hooky this week and missed an issue of the DR? Don't fret...we have them all catalogued for you, below...


    A Bull in a Silver Shop

    by The Mogambo Guru
    Tampa Bay, Florida


    "More than one-seventh of all the silver bullion 'thought to exist' in the whole world was suddenly bought up in less than a year, and yet the price of silver has been pounded down to less than 10 bucks an ounce?"


    It's the Balance of Power, Stupid!

    by Leon T. Hadar
    Washington, DC


    "...there is an eerie resemblance between the resistance of officials, lawmakers and pundits in London 1949 and that of their contemporary counterparts in Washington 2009 to adjust their nation's foreign policies to the changing global balance of power."


    Greetings from Qatar!

    by Chris Mayer
    Doha, Qatar


    " One headline story noted how 32,000 homes are about to come on the market next year, which is a big number to choke down in any city. Dubai had a huge property boom and now must suffer the flip side."


    Inshallah, Build It And They Will Come

    by Addison Wiggin
    Dubai, United Arab Emirates


    "Here in Dubai, there is little money from oil or gas, it's mostly trade, Western conglomerates setting up shop in a low tax jurisdiction and real estate. And, since the bust...debt."


    Chronic Depression

    by Bill Bonner
    London, England


    "The authorities still do not understand what is going on. They are used to fooling most of the people most of the time. They think they can dupe them again - with bailouts and boondoggles."


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    Addison Wiggin and Chris Mayer have spent the past week in Dubai (you can read about their experiences in two of this week's essays, found above), and next they move on to India. They promise to send some observations and anecdotes back to us next week, but if you can't wait until then, here's a sneak peek of what they are in for. See it here.

    Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

    Kate Incontrera
    The Daily Reckoning


    The Daily Reckoning - Special Reports:

    Gold: The Truth About Gold

    Fiat Currency: Using the Past to See into the Future

    "THE GREAT AMERICAN RECOVERY RP-OFF" Brace yourself for what's

     about to go down as the BIGGEST FINANCIAL SWINDLE in world history.