Britannia Radio

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: Years ago Israeli withdrawal promoters argued that withdrawal would bring peace. Since Oslo there aren't many customers for that line.  So the argument was made that we had to withdraw because of the "demographic time bomb". While that argument is still being made, it is wearing thin - both thanks to declining Arab birth rates and the retreat from the Gaza Strip that, for the average Israeli, takes Gazans out of the equation. So the latest argument embraced by Israeli withdrawal advocates is that if we don't hurry up and cut a deal to withdraw the Palestinians will unilaterally declare a sovereign state that includes the entire West Bank and eastern Jerusalem and the world will recognize the state and we will find ourselves forced to pull out under inferior circumstances. Are the Palestinians actually serious about such a plan?  The publicly available details of  the Fayyad plan indicate that they aren't.  Take for example the absence of work to actually set up an airport in the West Bank that could be used to break an Israeli blockade after the unilateral declaration of a state (instead the two years are to be spent studying how to make ports rather than building them). So now we have word about the possibility of an additional "secret plan". It is hard to really know, at this stage, just how serious this whole plan is, or what kind of support it might actually get overseas. Keep this in mind:  When you read any Israeli report on this challenge you have to always ask yourself who the authors of the report are.  Because withdrawal advocates interested in pushing their agenda may very well overstate the significance, scope, etc. of the Fayyad plan. Even worse:  Israeli withdrawal advocates may actually go so far as to lobby overseas for support for the Fayyad plan in the hopes that this will help push Israel to act. Far fetched? Let's not forget the byword of the Left:  "the ends justify the means". ============= PM heads to U.S. under threat of Palestinian statehood declaration By Barak Ravid and Natasha Mozgovaya Haaretz Last update - 12:43 08/11/2009 www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1126594.html Concerns are growing in Israel's government over the possibility of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence within the 1967 borders, a move which could potentially be recognized by the United Nations Security Council. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently asked the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama to veto any such proposal, after reports reached Jerusalem of support for such a declaration from major European Union countries, and apparently also certain U.S. officials. The reports indicated that Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has reached a secret understanding with the Obama administration over U.S. recognition of an independent Palestinian state. Such recognition would likely transform any Israeli presence across the Green Line, even in Jerusalem, into an illegal incursion to which the Palestinians would be entitled to engage in measures of self-defense. In late August Fayyad presented the international community with a detailed plan for building up Palestinian Authority institutions and set a timetable of up to two years for its implementation. Senior Israeli officials said Fayyad's plan initially met with positive reaction in Jerusalem for its emphasis on institution-building and making security services more efficient. But some Israeli officials told Haaretz that alongside the clauses reported in the media - which are similar to elements of Netanyahu's call for "economic peace" between Israel and the Palestinians - Fayyad's plan also contains a classified, unreleased portion stipulating a unilateral declaration of independence. The plan specifies that at the end of a designated period for bolstering national institutions the PA, in conjunction with the Arab League, would file a "claim of sovereignty" to the UN Security Council and General Assembly over the borders of June 4, 1967 (before the outbreak of the Six-Day War, during which Israel took control of the West Bank and Gaza). Fayyad is also seeking a new Security Council resolution to replace Resolutions 242 and 338 in the hope of winning the international community's support for the borders of a Palestinian state and applying stronger pressure on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank. Several Israeli officials told Haaretz that Fayyad had spoken to them of positive responses he had received over the plan from prominent EU member states, including the United Kingdom, France, Spain and Sweden. Fayyad added that he presented the proposal to the U.S. administration and did not receive any signal of opposition in response. Netanyahu's "kitchen cabinet" has held a number of meetings on the matter in recent months. "It's a very dangerous move," said a senior Israeli foreign-policy official. "More and more cabinet ministers understand that diplomatic inaction on Israel's part is likely to bring international support for the Fayyad program." Israeli sources said Netanyahu discussed the proposal in meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and special Mideast envoy George Mitchell and requested that the U.S. tell Fayyad that it would not support his proposal and would veto it in the Security Council. Netanyahu has yet to receive a clear response from Washington on its stance on Fayyad's plan. Netanyahu is to arrive in Washington today for a brief visit. He is scheduled to address the United Jewish Communities General Assembly, preceded by Defense Minister Ehud Barak. On Tuesday Netanyahu is to fly to Paris, where he is scheduled to meet with President Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday. The prime minister's Paris visit comes just two days before that of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who will also meet with Sarkozy. Netanyahu has not signaled interest in renewing negotiations with Damascus, but stagnation in talks with the Palestinians may force him to do so. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, a mediator between Israel and Syria during Ehud Olmert's term as prime minister, said Friday in Paris that Turkey seeks to resume its role as an intermediary between the two countries, and that his government can be an "honest broker" in such talks. Netanyahu has expressed reluctance over Turkish mediation due to ongoing diplomatic tension between Ankara and Jerusalem. -------------------------------------------- IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis Website: www.imra.org.il