The great divide - by Richard... Saturday, November 14, 2009

The great divide - by Richard... Saturday, November 14, 2009

Lead item for The Times today is a survey the paper has commissioned on attitudes to global warming. 

It finds that only 41 percent accept as an established scientific fact that global warming is taking place and is largely man-made. Almost a third (32 percent) believe that the link is not yet proved; 8 percent say that it is environmentalist propaganda to blame man and 15 percent say that the world is not warming.

Interestingly, while The Times makes a big deal of its own survey, that was thatsmaller survey reported in September, which had 29 percent of those questioned thinking the evidence on global warming had been exaggerated – double the number who held the same opinion in 2003.

That is vaguely comparable with this later survey, but The Times groups its various categories together to come up with the conclusion that less than half the population believes that human activity is to blame for global warming.

The paper observes that ministers have failed in their campaign to persuade the public that the greenhouse effect is a serious threat requiring urgent action, and it thus "will make uncomfortable reading for the Government as it prepares for next month’s climate change summit in Copenhagen".

But what is most significant is the response of the warmist community. Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office, interprets the survey as evidence that "growing awareness of the scale of the problem appeared to be resulting in people taking refuge in denial".

Ed Miliband, climate change secretary, resorts to the usual warmist mantras, saying: "The overwhelming body of scientific information is stacked up against the deniers and shows us that climate change is man-made and is happening now." 

Predictably, therefore – rather like the EU – he believes the answer to the "deniers" is more propaganda. "We know that we still have a way to go in informing people about climate change," he says, "and that is why we make no apologies about pushing forward with our new Act on CO2 campaign."

And therein lies the great divide. Never once do the warmists concede that many of their so-called "deniers" have adopted their stance on the basis of good evidence. In their foetid minds, we must all be misinformed, and thus must be "educated" so that we can correct our errant ways. If we all row faster, they say, we might just get on board the Titanic before it sinks.

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In defence of civil servants - by Richard... Friday, November 13, 2009

Following this, we got this on the forum. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with MoD civil servants ... this is a truly weird world.

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Moving up the agenda - by Richard...

According to a poll carried out by Politics Home, the European Union is one of the fastest-growing issues in the league of those regarded as important by voters. The other issue is defence.

Some 31 percent of those surveyed now consider "our relationship with Europe" a key issue, compared to 12 percent six months ago. There was a small peak in June, around the time of the European Parliament elections, but the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and controversy over the Conservatives' decision not to hold a referendum on it, has seen interest reach a new high - the 10th most important issue, compared to the 18th back in May.

This rather underlines our proposition – shared by many – that the only reason "Europe" does not feature routinely high up in voters' concerns is simply because it is not talked about – not least because of the conspiracy of silence amongst the main political parties. 

As to "defence and the armed forces", this actually scores higher than "Europe", with 35 percent of respondents believing this is a key issue, compared with just 9 percent six months ago. This reflects increased media coverage of the conflict in Afghanistan, moving the issue from 19th to 7th place in the league of "most important issue" within six months.

I think it has to be said that the increased concern about defence has not been reflected in much of the UK political blogosphere, which – with certain honourable exceptions – is trailing in this area (in contrast with US blogs). Neither do the main political parties seem to be giving this issue the priority the public seems to think it deserves. For us though, with our two blogs covering respectively the EU and defence, it is nice to be in the vanguard.

Despite this though, "Immigration and race relations" is still seen as a more important issue than either the EU or defence, with 52 percent of people now considering important, compared to 44 percent in early May. That will be music to the ears of the BNP, which cannot help but benefit from increased concern.

What is going to be interesting though is when people start linking the EU with immigration and, to a certain extent, with defence (to say nothing of "unemployment" which is one of the lead concerns). Once they realise the issues are interlinked, we may see "Europe" leap up in the ranks of "most important issues", leading – we hope – to unstoppable pressure for change.

To that extent, time is on the side of us "outers". As the Lisbon treaty bites, and the EU become more visible and obtrusive, we can expect more public interest, depriving the political classes of their current refuge, where they claim that it does not rank highly amongst public concerns.