This is a NEW POLLSTER TO BRITAIN . Angus Reid Strategies is a North American full service market research firm. It was established in 2006 by Angus Reid, a Canadian sociologist who founded his first research company in 1979.
In October 2009 Angus Reid Strategies entered the UK market, with the first of a series of monthly voting intention surveys on behalf of politicalbetting.com. They are applying for membership of the British Polling Council.
This particular poll has been released early in the light of the frenzied discussions over the Ipsos MORI Observer poll. On the whole the Tories can relax a bit but remain worried by thge low voting intention shown in the MORI and the high others here. Using the standard calculations this would equal a Tory overall majority of 86. Labour must be back in the dumps with definite bad news.
So can we officially call MORI a rogue?
Christina
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POLITICAL BETTING 23.11.09
CON 39%(38)
LAB 22%(25 24)
LD 21%(20)
OTHERS 18% (18)
Labour only one point ahead of the Lib Dems
There�s a new Angus Reid Strategies poll exclusively for PB and it shows a very different picture from the Ipsos-MORI survey that was published in the Observer yesterday.
The fieldwork for this 2,000 sample online poll started on Friday and only finished today. It had not been the plan to release it early but given all the attention there is being given to polling at the moment we have decided to publish it tonight.
The detailed data will not be available until later on tomorrow.
In common with all the other UK pollsters apart from MORI Angus Reid takes steps to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking respondents what they did last time.
A another difference between this and MORI is the timing - the survey closed only a few hours ago.
Yet again there is a high figure for �others� - something that has been seen in a lot of recent polls.
A special thanks to Andy Morris and his team at Angus Reid Strategies for all they�ve done to get this out tonight.
Mike Smithson
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UK POLLING REPORT 23.11.09
Posted on November 23rd, 2009 by Anthony Wells
After the six point lead from Ipsos MORI, we now have a 17 point lead from Angus Reid. The topline figures, as I mentioned in my brief post below, are CON 39%(+1), LAB 22%(-2), LDEM 21%(+1). Others are unchanged on 18%. The poll was conducted over the weekend, so it is the first proper post-Queens speech poll.
The changes from Angus Reid�s last poll are all quite minor, showing a small shift away from Labour but nothing to get excited about. It does, of course, contrast sharply with MORI�s poll, particularly in terms of the level of Labour support.
Angus Reid are just entering UK polling so we don�t have a long track record to judge them by, but looking at their methodology I would expect them to have a tendency to show higher levels of Conservative and Lib Dem support and lower Labour support. I mentioned in my posts on MORI about �false recall�, people�s tendency to inaccurately report how they actually voted in 2005, and that ICM, Populus and ComRes all factor this into their weighting targets. AngusReid do not, implying no false recall at all, and the effect of this is that they weight the Conservatives and Lib Dems slightly higher and Labour slightly lower (though before people get carried away, it is pretty minor). From their three UK polls so far, they also seem to have a tendency to report significantly higher levels of support for minor parties than any of the other pollsters (though ComRes showed a similar figure in their last poll) � I can see no obvious methodological reason to explain the difference.
The bottom line is that on the short track record and methodology details we have I�d expect Angus Reid to show Labour a bit lower than companies like ICM and YouGov, so this poll is pretty much in line with the average Conservative lead still being somewhere around 13 or 14 points.
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UPDATE: Forgot to say, we are also due a ComRes poll for the Independent� but not tonight. Presumably we can expect it later in the week.
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