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The Daily Reckoning Tuesday, December 1, 2009 Dubai in the drink... So who's up next? Greece, Ol' Blighty? Why even a golden pooch needs a rest from time to time, Plus, keeping your eyes open for life's grand show and more... Bill Bonner, with thoughts from London, England... The Lost World... And a farewell to an old friend... First: the noise. Stocks came back a little on Wall Street yesterday, with the Dow up 34 points. Gold rose $6 too. Dubai is still in trouble, as the local Bedouins said they weren't putting their full faith and credit behind the Dubai World debt. We wonder how long it will be before the next pin pricks the bubble. Yesterday, The Financial Times said Greece was up next. Our own magazine, MoneyWeek, concurred: "Las and inept, Greece is on a slippery slope." But today, The Daily Telegraph Britain itself is sliding: "Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010," is the headline story in the Business Section. "In an extreme situation, a fiscal crisis could lead to some domestic capital flight, severe pound weakness and a sell-off in UK government bonds. The bank of England may feel forced to hike rates to shore up confidence and stabilize the currency, threatening the fragile economic recovery," said the Morgan Stanley report. The situation is becoming clearer. Is it an illusion? Or is the fog really lifting? We don't know. But what we see is what we anticipated 10 years too early - a long, Japan-like slump, punctuated with crises, bankruptcies, and defaults. At the end of the '90s it was said that Japan had lost a decade. Now, it is ten years later, and the Japanese are becoming remarkably forgetful; they've lost another decade! The Japanese have spent the last 20 years trying to bring about a recovery. There were hopeful signs several times. But then, each time, the economy sank again into recession again...deeper than before. These stimulus efforts have been expensive, transforming Japan from a country with one of the world's best public finances to one with the worst. Debt to GDP is already at 200%. It will soon be 300% if the government continues spending at the current rate. What have the Japanese gotten for all this effort? Tokyo stocks have rebounded a bit...along with the rest of the world. But consumer prices are falling again. And now the Japanese are getting older, faster than any other group in the world. It is as if the whole nation had retired and the economy has been pensioned off. But Americans lost that last decade too. No job growth. No income growth. No stock market gains. And now, it looks to us as though the US is on track to lose another decade - just like Japan did. What was lost to the first world's two leading economies was found by another part of the world that used to be known as the 'second' or 'third' world. India, China, Russia and Brazil have all grown by leaps and bounds - with income, stocks, GDP, prices, jobs...all up dramatically. And now comes a report in today's paper that our favorite emerging economy is still growing, more rapidly than was thought. "India's 7.9% growth spurt shatters forecasts," says The Financial Times. This is good news for those who are hoping that emerging markets will provide the 'growth' needed to pull the world out of depression. The idea is simple enough. US consumers have slacked off. British consumers are out of money. European consumers are just naturally tight. And Japanese consumers are in a coma. So, who's going to do the consuming? Where's the growth going to come from to keep Chinese factories polluting the atmosphere and Indian call centers confusing the customers? Well, from India and China...and Brazil and Russia...and the rest of the emerging world. And here's an interesting bit of information. Nouriel Roubini recently commented that there is no way the Chinese can replace American consumers. US consumption is 10 times greater than Chinese consumption. But he must have different information from a French fund manager who calculates that Chinese consumption has more than offset American thrift. At their peak in 2007, Americans were spending 380 billion per month at the retail level. Now, the figure is close to $345 billion - or a reduction of $35 billion a month. Meanwhile, Chinese consumer spending has jumped from $110 billion a month to $150 billion - $40 billion more, and more than enough to compensate for Americans' new found frugality. At this rate, China will soon be redirecting its productive capacity - as India always has - at its own domestic market. It will cease being a major exporter and, if you can believe it, will become a net importer. If this were to happen as forecast, it would open an avenue for America and its crony economies to escape from their Lost World. They could turn their economies from import to export...from consumption to production...from taking to making...and from trade deficit to trade surplus. Sounds simple enough. But wait...there's more. In order to sell things to the Chinese and the Brazilians, you're going to have to be able to compete either on price or on quality. It's hard to see how the US could compete on price, unless inflation cuts the price of US labor substantially. As to quality, typically, it has been the Germans, Italians and French who have the upper hand. The Germans make the precision tools. The Italians make the handbags. The French make the yoghurt. What does that leave? Well, there's still some room. But it will take time to gear up for it. Your editor, for example, has planted his flag - not the Crash Alert flag...his company flag - in India. He would like to plant a flag in Brazil too. But he's not counting on these foreign ventures to pay profits anytime soon. It takes 5 to 10 years before a start up business really gets some momentum. Between now and then, there are bound to be booms, busts and blow-ups. What is true for our business is surely true for an economy. It takes time...trial and error...mistakes and corrections...training...boom, busts and blow-ups before something really works. And another lost decade or two... --- The Agora Financial Reserve is Officially Open --- We'll Pay You $5,909 to Cancel Your Agora Financial Subscription Right Now We know it sounds preposterous, but it's true. Not only that... If you act now* you'll receive every one of our elite publications... And that's in addition to the nearly $6 grand we just mentioned. Just give us 10 short minutes out of your day, and we'll explain everything. *The doors to the Agora Financial Reserve are only open a few short weeks out of the year. We suggest you take advantage while you can. --------------------------------------------------------------- And more... US personal income rose in October. But it was boosted by government benefits, says David Rosenberg. Take away the free money from the feds and income actually went down. Income has been going down for a long time in the US. English colleague Brian Durrant wonders why there is no revolution: "Consider a country. For the top 20% of the population real incomes have increased by 60% since 1970. But for the other four-fifths real income has fallen by more than 10%. Am I talking about Guatemala or Bolivia? These sorts of inequalities have in the past provoked resentment sometimes articulated through revolutionary movements and social unrest. But I am not talking about a tiny Latin American state; these figures apply to the US. How can this be? Middle class America is surely better off compared to 1970; if you look at higher car ownership, better housing, more white goods and gadgets. The answer is debt. No wonder the politicians are frightened of it contracting!" We have been saying that the last 10 years was a 'lost decade' in terms of income, employment and stock market growth. For most people, their whole adult lives have been spent slipping backward. Since the Carter Administration, the typical American has lost income. A whole generation made no financial progress. But they didn't revolt. Instead, they borrowed. It gave them more gadgets, gizmos and floor space. It also gave them the impression that things were getting better. Now we've reached the end of that period of debt expansion. Now debt is contracting. So are lifestyles...And so is the foundational American faith in free enterprise. America flourished because its people believed in free enterprise and controlled public spending. Now, they seem to believe the exact opposition. That business must be carefully controlled...and the feds can spend however much they want. But check this out. Now, people in communist China have more faith in free enterprise than Americans do. More thoughts below, but first it's over to Eric Fry, our man in California, for today's column... --- The Secret to Penny Stock Fortunes --- If You Started With $200 in August 2007, You Could Have Been Sitting on $5 Million by November 11, 2008, Thanks To... Wall Street's Most Profitable Stock Strings Revealed AT LAST... Inside: Exclusive details about four stocks set to rise as much as eight times over in the next year. If I don't deliver gains, I'll give you DOUBLE your money back. Some Amazing Gains In The Last Year in this Explosive Market Sector... --------------------------------------------------------------- The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Gold has gone ballistic over the past few months, up some 30% since its mid-July lows. Consequently, many of our "Trade of the Decade" enthusiasts (buy gold, sell stocks), may be asking themselves, "Is this the correct time to sell gold...or is it time to stock up on some more?" Why are you asking us, dear reader? Oh yeah...the financial newsletter thing. Right. Gotcha. In today's column, Eric Fry lends us some words on the barbarous relic's recent past, explosive present and possible future. Please enjoy... Gold... Selling is the Hardest Part By Eric Fry Laguna Beach, California Ten years ago, everyone on the planet knew gold was a "Sell." (Incidentally, everyone also knew that JDS Uniphase and Pets.com were "Buys.") Investors scorned it. Central bankers sold it. Economists eulogized it. Today, gold is hated less...which causes some gold investors to worry that their favorite precious metal has become too popular for its own good. "Is the gold bull market about to hit a wall?" they ask themselves. Your editors here at The Daily Reckoning have no answers - especially when money is at stake - but we do have guesses. In fact, we have a lot more guesses than money. And so we would guess that the gold bull market is far from over...very far. But having said that, we would also guess that the risk of a sudden, steep correction is far from zero...very far. In fact, an imminent correction seems like a plausible scenario. "Yes, we extract less and less gold ore every year," our colleagues in the French office point out. "And yes, there have been very few large gold discoveries in recent years. Yes, demand for gold bullion is exploding; Yes, central banks became net buyers of gold for the first time since the '70s; Yes, Asian demand is booming; Yes, gold benefits from the massive indebtedness of states, and the resulting increases in the money supply that destroys the value of paper assets and paper currencies... Yes, yes, yes...But something else struck me...everyone wants to own gold right now...That worries us." And it also worries us, dear reader. Gold is popular, finally, and we just can't stand it! "Edgy" is not edgy anymore. The lunatic fringe has shifted to the middle of the bell curve. The financial counter-culture has become a pillar of the Establishment. This is not the world we knew in 1999, when we fell in love with $300 gold...and no one cared Between 1980 and 2000, the Yellow Dog did little more than gather fleas. Gold's value fell by more than half. During that same 20-year period, the S&P 500 delivered a dazzling return of more than 2,500%! Clearly, therefore, gold was a dead-beat, a good-for-nothing - more suitable for a Steinbeck novel than an investment portfolio. And like most losers, gold attracted other losers. One of those gold-loving losers was The Daily Reckoning's very own Bill Bonner. As the new millennium dawned, Bill declared his "Trade of the Decade" - buy gold, sell stocks. The decade isn't over yet, but so far, so good. During the last nine years and 11 months, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of -11%. The gold price has quadrupled. And so, today, we find ourselves in a very different investment environment. Very few people on the planet believe that gold is a "Sell." In fact, lots and lots of people believe that gold is a "Buy"... Or least they say they believe gold is a "Buy." No doubt about it, the ancient monetary metal is back in style, which worries Bill Bonner a little. "Everyone seems to be jumping on the gold bandwagon," Bill laments. "Frankly, it's getting a little crowded...a little top-heavy. It's making us feel, well, a little uncomfortable. "Here at The Daily Reckoning we never met a crowd we wanted to join...or a line we wanted to stand in. We don't even like being on the winning side of a football game - too much boisterous company. "No, give us the lost cause, the diehard and the underdog," says Bill. "We are much more at ease as an outsider...an outcast...an outlier. Not only is there more elbow room, that's also where the bargains are - where others aren't looking. Trouble is, almost everyone is looking where we're looking now. At gold. "Ten years ago," Bill explains, "only the gold bugs - those few who were still solvent and still sane - bought gold. Now, the smart fellows are buying it too. People like David Einhorn and John Paulson. Heck, even central banks are buying it. For the first time in a quarter century central banks are buying more gold than they're selling. "Why? Because the story is so good. So easy to understand. So convincing. "If the recovery is for real, demand will increase, diminishing inventories and turning the Fed's hot money into consumer price inflation. Investors will turn to gold to protect themselves. If the recovery falters, the feds will increase their stimulus efforts, setting the stage for even greater inflation later. "If this analysis is correct, gold is a one-way bet. The argument is good," Bill concludes. "We believe it. But it bothers us that so many others do too." Bill is not bothered to the point of wanting to actually SELL gold. After all, as he readily admits, 'the argument is good.' Nor is your California editor inclined to make a case for selling gold. Here's the problem: Once you've sold the stuff, what do you do next? Buy stocks? Buy bonds? Buy vintage Coca-cola bottles? And while you're thinking about what you might buy, what do you hold in your bank account? A currency that's depreciating faster than net worth in a divorce court? So long-term gold holders are probably well advised to remain faithful to their favorite dollar substitute, and just ride through the inevitable ups and downs. That said; short-term traders do not lack for reasons to risk betting against gold. For starters, the gold trade has become a bit crowded, as Bill correctly observes. Secondly, the recent rally has triggered "overbought" signals on all major technical indicators. Lastly, the recent rally is bumping up against the performance targets that have capped all the major gold rallies of the last ten years. In the September 17, 2009 edition of The Rude Awakening (may it rest in peace), we presented the following table and observed: "The shares of gold mining companies are flashing a compelling short- term buy signal. Since late July, the gold mining stocks, as represented by the HUI 'Gold Bugs' Index have jumped more than 30%, while the gold price has advanced only about one third as much. "As the nearby table illustrates, rapid 30% rallies in the HUI tend to bode very well for the gold price. The five prior instances in which the HUI rallied more than 30% in a very short timeframe, the gold price subsequently jumped an average of 27%. A similar advance this time around would land gold at $1,160 an ounce by Christmas - or about $140 higher than today's price. No such rally is certain, of course. But the monetary stars seem to be aligning for both a short-term and a long- term advance in the gold market." As it turns out, the stars aligned exactly as predicted and the gold price landed at $1,195 an ounce by Thanksgiving - a 30% jump from the mid-July lows. As a result, gold is making more headlines than the soon-to-be-filmed love scene between Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp. In fact, gold just might be the sexier of these two news stories...and that's probably not a good thing. The long-term outlook for gold remains as compelling as ever. This bull market is justified and "has legs." But the Yellow Dog has run very far, very fast over the last few months. The pooch might need a rest. Regards, Eric J. Fry, for The Daily Reckoning --------------------------------------------------------------- And finally today, some words from Bill for a passing friend... The older you get, the lonelier you become. That is not because you become anti-social. It is because your friends die. Your editor is only 61. He is not a particularly 'social' fellow. His wife thinks he is a curmudgeon, because he does not tarry at cocktail receptions or join in Super Bowl parties. He rarely stays up after midnight; and has never heard anyone say anything after the midnight bell that was worth staying up for. And to make it worse, he is an economist of the finger-wagging, I-told-you-so school. A man of this sort does not accumulate many friends. So when he loses one, he feels like a bum whose last quarter rolled down a storm drain. On Monday, we went to a funeral for a dear friend, Frank. The service was held in an old and beautiful church in the heart of Paris, St. Julien Le Pauvre. "Isn't that just like Frank," said a fellow mourner. "He couldn't even be buried like everyone else." Frank was Catholic. "Not to believe would be vulgar," he said after receiving last rites. He chose St. Julien le Pauvre for his funeral service because it is a Catholic church, but it is also much more than that. It is in the hands of a sect we had never heard of - the Melkite Greek Catholics. The group comes from the Near East, with its headquarters still in Damascus, and now has parishes all over the world, with an important cathedral in Roslindale, Massachusetts. It claims descent directly from the apostles Peter and Paul, but through a long and twisted lineage, threading itself through the history of the Levant. Melkite Christians are the product of an old schism. They were part of the Eastern Empire and subject to the authority of Constantinople for centuries. Then, the Moslems took over...adding Arabic flourishes and poetry to the Melkite rites. Later, the Melkites joined with the Roman Catholics, to which they remain united. Frank was an architect. The last time we saw him - when he was already feeling the heavy hand of the Reaper on his shoulder - we talked about building. We told him about our project at the ranch in South America, where we are planning to build, by hand, a vaulted ceiling out of local stone and adobe. It is fairly easy to imagine it, but very difficult to figure out how to build it in practice. How do you frame it up so that it is rounded in the right places...and intersects a different curve going in the other direction? Frank had done a vaulted ceiling himself, in stone, in a house he built with his three sons. If he could do it, we reasoned, we could do it too. But Frank was an architect; we are only a feral economist. Frank took us over to the basement door. Leaning on a cane, he invited us to go down and have a look. We saw what he had done, like a wine cellar with a vaulted roof. It was not exactly what we had in mind, so we explained and Frank took out paper and pencil to instruct us. Still it was difficult to grasp the intersection of the two curves, at a 90 degree angle one to the other, from his drawing. "I need to see this in stone in order to understand it," we said. "Don't worry, you'll see it soon enough," he said. "What do you mean?" "Just keep your eyes open." Saint Julien is a marvelous old church, built in the 13th century. It was built and rebuilt and built again, according to the history books. But in the 13th century, the present shape took form. Then, as recently as the 1920s it was the scene of an important event in the art world. It was where Tristan Tzara, Andre Breton and Philippe Soupault staged the last major "Dada excursion." The Dadaists shouted to passersby a stream of idiotic and absurd remarks. But that was the idea, to stir up interest in the absurdity of life itself. It was a form of marketing, designed to raise the public's awareness of Dada and perhaps give the artists more street cred. It failed. The public ignored them. Breton and Soupault then split off from Tzara and formed the surrealist movement. Frank had little interest in the Dadaists. As far as we know, he had no particular interest in the Melkite schism either. It was the building itself and the richness of the ceremony he admired. The church is built entirely of stone. It is small, intimate, with an ornate wooden panel that embellishes the sacristy in front of worshippers. On the walls hang religions paintings and icons in the Eastern Orthodox style. The priest was decorated in the Eastern style too. Though not Orthodox, he would be easily mistaken for one of that ilk, with a black head cloth stretched over a flat rack on the top of his head, falling gracefully to his shoulders and down his back. The service began with chants and a sung Greek liturgy. It had the flavor of monasteries, minarets and strong coffee... At times, the words were clearly French. At other times, we weren't sure. There were the usual bible readings...and a homily from the priest. We were lost in thought...mostly remembering Frank and wondering why we had seen so little of each other in the 30 years we had known each other. Frank was a much more reflective man than we are. We write. Frank thought. And when he talked, we listened carefully. Because his thoughts were not the rough brew of columnists and pundits. They were the distilled spirits of the serious thinker. Rich. And strong. Often, when we were considering a subject, we would ask ourselves... 'What would Frank think of this?' Now, it is too late to ask him. We'll have to think for ourselves. As we were thus occupied with our thoughts, our eyes rolled upward. There were columns running down both sides of the church, spaced about the same distance as those we intended for our project at the ranch. We followed them up to where they branched out, expanded...and vaulted over the ceiling. And yes, there were the criss-crossing supports...the frame on which to rest our ceiling...and the angles, formed naturally by the intersection of the two vaulted sections...just as we had imagined it. Our mouth was open. We tilted our head upward. We studied the ceiling. And we thought we heard a voice whisper: 'just open your eyes.' Adieu, Frank. Bill Bonner The Daily Reckoning   The Daily Reckoning - Special Reports: Gold: The Truth About Gold Fiat Currency: Using the Past to See into the Future "THE GREAT AMERICAN RECOVERY RP-OFF" Brace yourself for what's about to go down as the BIGGEST FINANCIAL SWINDLE in world history.