Black hole of debt triggers Obama defections but re-election is possible
Re-election is possible if he can convince voters he averted a second Great Depression
(Matt Detrich/The Indianapolis Star/AP)
A man wearing a Hire Me sign gives a dollar to a man with a Down But Not Out sign in Indianapolis. US voters remain preoccupied with job creation
As he took the oath of office before a record two million people, his approval rating over 70 per cent, Barack Obama believed he had been called on by history to remake America.
He had already spoken of a new “grand bargain” with the American people. The country, he was soon to profess, was on the crest of an historic wave – one that he would help "guide".
His aides believed Mr Obama was about to join the handful of truly transformative US presidents, such as Thomas Jefferson, Franklin D Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln, men compelled to achieve momentous change because of the crises they inherited.
Nearly one year on, Mr Obama, according to one poll last week, has an approval rating of 47 per cent – the lowest for any president at this point in his first term. The extraordinary movement of young, old, liberal, independents, black, Hispanic, disaffected Republicans and first time voters that propelled him to victory last year has splintered. The grandiloquent calls for transformation have gone. Today, it is not inconceivable that Mr Obama could lose re-election.
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Mr Obama’s poll numbers are far from disastrous. Ronald Reagan was at 49 per cent at the same stage; Bill Clinton 52 – and both easily won re-election. Yet after an unexpectedly bruising year at home and abroad he stands at a critical point in his presidency. There are clear danger signs for him as he looks to 2010 – but also reasons for optimism.
There are several fundamental reasons for Mr Obama’s problems, and they will persist in 2010. First, he and his aides failed to anticipate just how brutal the recession would be and the devastating scale of job losses that have swept America.
As a result polls strongly suggest he has over interpreted his mandate. US voters are obsessed with two things: jobs, and the exploding deficit. It is now so huge - $1.4 trillion and counting – that it has become a dominant issue. Millions of US households are in dire straits financially. They worry not just about how to find employment, but the black hole of debt into which their country is sinking.
Last year, many voters backed Mr Obama believing they were sending to the White House a left-of-centre pragmatist who would transform Washington by bridging the partisan divide. Instead, many have been unnerved – even frightened – by Mr Obama’s belief that gargantuan short-term spending is the long-term answer to America’s economic woes.
He has broken all spending records for a president in his first year: passing a $787 billion stimulus package, $75 billion to help stop home repossessions, bailing out the car industry, unveiling a $4 trillion, 10-year budget. He is also set to pass another $154 billion jobs bill. And most importantly, he has expended an enormous amount of political capital – and that of Democrats on Capitol Hill – in passing historic, near-universal health coverage reform.
The health care battle has taken a significant toll. It could well turn out to be Mr Obama’s greatest legacy – but the fight has been long and bloody. Its near $1 trillion cost, and the way it has dominated the domestic agenda for months, has alienated many – who wanted Mr Obama to focus instead on job creation.
Millions might have voted for “change” last year but the change they have got - a president with an absolute, Keynesian belief that massive government spending is the way to respond to a deep recession - is, together with persistently high unemployment, the greatest single factor in Mr Obama’s sinking poll numbers.
Voters see record government spending, but as yet precious few new jobs. Americans fundamentally distrust government intervention. The greatest concern for Mr Obama is that his spending binge has compelled independents and moderates – critical to his victory last year – to desert him in significant numbers. It was the main factor in Democratic losses earlier this year in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races. And in those same elections, the young and African Americans who turned out in record numbers last year largely stayed at home.
Mr Obama also arrived in the White House with Capitol Hill more polarized than ever, making his promise to change Washington next to impossible to achieve. When Franklin Roosevelt passed his landmark Social Security legislation in 1935, 14 out of the 19 Senate Republicans voted for it. When Lyndon Johnson passed the government-run Medicare and Medicaid programmes in 1965, 27 of 33 Republicans in the upper chamber backed it.
Not a single Republican in the Senate – and just one Republican congressman in the House – voted for Mr Obama’s health bill. America has never seen such landmark social legislation passed with such a partisan divide – something that does not bode well for the rest of Mr Obama's domestic agenda next year.
Abroad, one of the most iconic photographs of Mr Obama was his low bow as he greeted the Emperor of Japan. It received widespread attention in America because it fed into a growing perception back home that on the world stage, Mr Obama looks good – but carries no heft; that America's adversaries do not fear him. Even Hillary Clinton, his Secretary of State, admitted this month that his outreach to Iran has failed.
He scrapped the controversial missile shield in Eastern Europe, but has received precious little from Russia in return - and specifically, no pledge yet to back a tough new set of sanctions against Iran. He is now back to where George W Bush ended with Iran: hoping for action at the UN.
Yet, as he looks toward 2012 and his re-election bid, Mr Obama has much to console him. Republicans remain factionalised and leaderless. After his protracted review of Afghan strategy, a process beset by leaks, he has finally ordered a surge of 30,000 extra US troops. In two years, some form of victory may be in sight. By sheer dint of time, jobs will have been returning. Americans will likely have warmed to his health reforms. He will argue that his policies averted a second Great Depression. That is a lot to run on.
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