On Aug. 30, 2009 Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, issued a report advocating, among other items, a surge of 40,000 troops into Afghanistan. Over subsequent months, this number became a political football. Both Vice President Joseph Biden and Gen. Karl Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador in Kabul, advocated fewer troops. After lengthy deliberation, Obama on Tuesday night agreed to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, bringing the total U.S. commitment to over 100,000 troops. NATO, the administration hopes, will contribute enough to address the shortfall in McChrystal's request.
There should be nothing wrong with an open-ended commitment to victory. In late 2006 and early 2007, when the Bush administration put the finishing touches on the strategy that would become the Iraq surge, Obama and many of his top aides questioned its wisdom. On July 19, 2007, for example, Obama declared, "Here's what we know. The surge has not worked." That a year later Obama scrubbed his criticism from his campaign website suggests that today he recognizes the positive impact of George W. Bush's decision. What Obama fails to understand, however, is that the surge is not only a military strategy, but a psychological one as well.
Iraq's surge succeeded because Bush convinced Iraqis that he would not subvert his commitment to victory to politics. Bush's actions showed insurgents had misjudged the U.S. and that Bin Laden was wrong: The U.S. was no paper tiger. Iraqis, no more attracted to al-Qaida's extreme vision than ordinary Afghans are to the Taliban, believed America to be strong. Rather than make accommodations to the terrorists, Iraqis could fight them. The Sunni tribesmen believed that the U.S. would guard their back, and let neither al-Qaida nor Iranian proxies run roughshod over them. For Iraqis and Afghans, it is an easy decision to ally with militarily superior forces led by a commander-in-chief with a clear and demonstrable will to victory.
Obama is not Bush. By declaring his commitment finite, he removes the psychological force from his surge. NATO allies, who, because of limits they place on their troops' activities, are hardly dependable on the best days, will understand that absent U.S. commitment, furthering their own commitments is silly. Pakistan will bolster its support for the Taliban. In Islamabad's calculation, militant Islam is a lesser evil than Pashtun nationalism. If Obama is preparing to cut-and-run--which, fairly or unfairly, is how Pakistani generals will read his speech--then strengthening links to the Taliban will make Pakistan the dominant player in post-surge, post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The Taliban, too, will understand that, at best, they need only lay low, perhaps bloodying U.S. troops enough to keep the Afghanistan war unpopular among the Hollywood, university and media sets Obama cares about.
Obama is also wrong to believe that his surge will buy enough time to inject stability into Afghanistan's state or society. His inability to commit to the country's future will lead President Hamid Karzai to resist U.S. demands for reform. Obama's civilian "dream team" has turned into a nightmare. Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke's longing for the spotlight--and desire to create a High Commissioner to administer the country--has made the mercurial Karzai even more resistant to advice.
Victory in Afghanistan is crucial. Those who say occupation sparks insurgency misunderstand what is at stake. Afghans dislike occupation, but they place a higher priority on security. Security brings tolerance of the U.S. presence, and stability and a responsive government enables withdrawal. To cede the Taliban a safe haven, either now or post-surge, is unacceptable. Absent a stable government and a more capable Afghan National Army, the Taliban will fill the vacuum as they did from 1994 to 2001. The Taliban and their al-Qaida allies remain ideologically committed to the destruction of Western society. Not only will failure in Afghanistan mean a renewed threat to Americans across the globe, but it will also enable Islamists to convince more and more people that, having defeated two superpowers, they are the wave of the future. Unless Obama convinces the Taliban that his commitment to victory is unwavering, prepare for a dozen new Afghanistans.
--------
Michael Rubin, a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
True to form, Obama spent most of his speech decrying the Bush administration going into Iraq. He said — a lie — that “Commanders in Afghanistan repeatedly asked for support to deal with the reemergence of the Taliban, but these reinforcements did not arrive.” The historic record shows that George Bush never denied commanders in Afghanistan the support they requested.
The historic record shows that Barack Obama is not even granting McChrystal the General’s preferred troop level. McChrystal wanted 40,000 troops to 80,000 troops. So Bush gave the Generals in Afghanistan everything they wanted, despite Obama saying he did not, and Obama is not giving his General what was requested, despite claiming he is.
The historic record also shows that Barack Obama, despite his denials tonight, very clearly dithered on General McChrystal’s request, waiting more than ninety days to make a decision and prolonging action for at least another thirty days — mischaracterizing McChrystal’s request in an effort to save face and, yet again, defend himself from Dick Cheney.
That Obama even had to say “there has never been an option before me that called for troop deployments before 2010, so there has been no delay or denial of resources necessary for the conduct of the war” is proof of just how powerful and resonate Dick Cheney is. How many times now has Dick Cheney gotten the best of Barack Obama? I’ve lost count.
The man who publicly opposed the surge in Iraq is now committing to a surge in Afghanistan, while still attacking the policy in Iraq. The key part of the Iraq strategy that Obama is attacking was the open ended surge in Iraq (nevermind that Obama refuses to use the word “surge”).
Proving yet again that he is a rank amateur, Obama intends to have a surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan, but concurrently announce the timeline for their withdrawal. This is akin to announcing to burglars exactly the time at which you intend to depart your house and also announcing you intend to turn off the burglar alarm. Al Qaeda will just wait us out. They’ll only need to wait a year. The men who spent years planning 9/11 are more patient than this President who wants instant gratification in a never ending campaign.
And that is, at the end of the day, what this was — not the speech of a Commander-in-Chief to his troops, but a campaign speech at time of falling poll numbers because of his dithering, trying to blame the other guy.
Only, there is no other guy now. There is only Barack Obama. A man who sees no special role for America in the world and a moral equivalence between good and evil.
Note this curious line from Obama’s speech:
And we must make it clear to every man, woman and child around the world who lives under the dark cloud of tyranny that America will speak out on behalf of their human rights, and tend to the light of freedom, and justice, and opportunity, and respect for the dignity of all peoples. That is who we are. That is the moral source of America’s authority.
Notice he is actually saying we will do nothing. We will talk and we will keep the light on — the policy equivalent of operating a Motel 6. Our President views the nation as he is himself — a smooth talker with no actual action. Barack Obama wants an America that talks a good game, but won’t actually get its hands dirty.
Lastly, Barack Obama said, “We have not always been thanked for these efforts, and we have at times made mistakes.” What mistakes exactly? And why tell our soldiers that, in essence, they have made mistakes?
In the years after 9/11, George Bush made sure no terrorist attacks have occurred on American soil. The naive fool who replaced him seems to think the preferable policy is to preemptively announce we have no ambition for victory while broadcasting the code for the burglar alarm.
Since taking office, Barack Obama’s casualty count is nearly DOUBLE that of George Bush’s worst year as Commander in Chief. God help our troops. It’s amateur hour still at the White House.
Posts
