Oxford Analytica, you might like to know our outlook for the world in 2010.
Overall, we believe the global economy will expand by 2-3% in 2010 with strong performance in the developing world offsetting weaknesses in the mature economies.
World trade is also on the mend, though strong protectionist impulses will surface in response to rising joblessness.
Protectionism is a particularly serious risk in the United States and Europe as politicians are forced to respond to growing unease over China’s trade and currency policies.
In Asia, we think stimulus policies will ensure Chinese growth of 8.5-9.0%, but domestic political issues and foreign trade pressures may prove testing. Growth will also recover in South-east Asia, while India should see expansion of over 6.5%. Pressures arising from turmoil in neighbouring Pakistan are set to intensify.
In the Middle East, we believe neither opposition protests nor economic problems will seriously challenge the Iranian regime.
Foreign oil companies will begin to enter the Iraqi market, although government formation will lead to paralysis for much of that period.
Turkey’s fiscal and monetary policy will tighten slowly, and GDP growth will not be strong enough to reduce unemployment.
These are summaries from Prospects 2010, which draws on Oxford Analytica’s global network of scholar experts to deliver authoritative, impartial judgements about risks and opportunities in 2010.
Every major part of the world is covered; every major issue is explored to determine how it will shape events in the next 12 months.
If you would like to find out more or purchase Prospects 2010, which is available in global and/or regional editions priced between USD 9.99 and USD 75 (for delivery via email or Amazon Kindle), please visit our website at:
http://www.oxan.com/SubscriptionServices/DailyBrief/Prospects/
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