Saturday 12 December 2009

SUNDAY TIMES 13.12.09
Gordon Brown tells Labour party to get set for snap election
Gordon Brown told key MPs to get their campaign material ready

Jonathan Oliver, Isabel Oakeshott and David Smith

The Labour party is gearing up for an early general election as a new Sunday Times poll reveals a narrowing of the Conservative lead.

Party chiefs have ordered staff to be ready to fight an election any time from the new year amid growing Labour optimism that a Conservative victory can be averted.

Gordon Brown last week addressed a private �key seats� meeting, when candidates were told to have their campaign literature ready for publication by the end of next month.

The party�s general secretary, Ray Collins, is understood to have told No 10: �We will be ready whenever you decide to go.�

Labour headquarters are accelerating the process of selecting parliamentary candidates, with bosses set to take new powers in the new year to parachute party loyalists into winnable seats.

Party chiefs are speeding up the recruitment of dozens of paid organisers, with many set to start work next month.

While May 6 remains the likely general election date, Labour�s recent bounce in the polls has meant that party chiefs are now preparing for an early March 25 poll.

Going to the polls then would mean Labour could avoid an awkward pre-election budget statement, when it might have been forced to reveal the true extent of the spending cuts required to close the �178 billion deficit.

Today�s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Labour on 31%, just nine points behind the Tories, who are on 40%. The Liberal Democrats have fallen two points to 16%.

Only last weekend the Conservatives were still enjoying a comfortable 13-point lead.

The narrowing of the gap is a result partly of voters� enthusiasm for the 50% tax on bankers� bonuses above �25,000 announced in last week�s pre-budget report.

A total of 79% of people surveyed thought the City windfall tax was a good idea.

Voters expressed little faith in the chancellor, Alistair Darling, with 55% saying they did not trust him to tell the truth about the state of the economy.

However, those polled were similarly dismissive about George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, with just one in four � 26% � declaring that they thought he was honest.

If today�s poll result was replicated in a general election there would either be a hung parliament or a slim Conservative majority.

Labour has also been buoyed by winning back four seats last week in council by-elections, two from the Tories, one from the Lib Dems and one from the British National party.

Among Labour MPs there is increasing enthusiasm for a March ballot. Denis MacShane, MP for Rotherham and a former Europe minister, said: �Many members just want to get on with it. I have told my team that we can no longer assume that the election will be on May 6 and we have to be ready if Gordon goes in March.�

Emily Thornberry, MP for Islington South and Finsbury, in London, who has one of the most marginal seats in the country, said: �I have always wanted to go for an early election. There is no doubt that our vote is hardening. You can feel it on the doorsteps. The vote is going back to Labour.�

Supporters of a March election believe calling it then would demonstrate that Brown was not waiting until the last moment to go to the country because he was afraid of the voters.

It would also allow Labour to fight a cheaper, shorter election campaign against a Tory party that is awash with cash. There have been recent discussions among the Commons leadership about how a March election might affect parliamentary business.

John Bercow, the Speaker, is hostile towards an early vote because it would leave no time to complete reform of the expenses system in the current session. Harriet Harman, the leader of the house, is also thought to favour a May election. She is understood to have told Bercow that an early vote could lead to a double poll disaster, with a possible general election defeat in March being followed by a rout in the May local elections.

No 10 sources said the prime minister had yet to make his final decisio. Coral, the bookmakers, yesterday slashed the odds on a March general election from 13-8 to 9-4.