Just over a week since Barack Obama launched his “radical” bank reforms – the first genuinely interesting move of his presidency – the political aftershock continues. Good. 30 Jan 2010 The deputy governor of China's central bank has a track record of being right 30 Jan 2010 After a year of dithering, Barack Obama finally ignited the post sub-prime debate, and his Presidency, by backing root-and-branch banking reform. Now the touch paper has been lit, there are two possible outcomes. 23 Jan 2010 Germany triggers flight from southern European debt markets, warning there will be no EU bail-outs. 28 Jan 2010 Finance ministers are now simply papering over cracks having squandered the opportunity to make real changes to the way the world economy works, writes Edmund Conway. The Bank of England has produced the first apparent statistical evidence that its programme of quantitative easing may now be successfully boosting the amount of money flowing around the economy. Asked why there was so little crime in Germany, a comedian replied: "Because it's against the law." Working on the same principle, Gordon Brown promises to eliminate his Government's ballooning deficit – £200 billion and rising – with a Bill to halve it in four years. Yes, too much state debt will become illegal. Lord above, show some mercy. What did we do to deserve this? One can only assume that our sins must have been truly wicked. Were the consequences of the Prime Minister's chicanery not so serious, we could all enjoy the joke. The country is on the rocks, driven there by spirit-sapping mismanagement, and No 10's response is a feeble attempt to confuse the issuing of diktats with effective policy. Forcing pupils to join the library is no guarantee that they will read the books. Mr Brown is said to have been a formidable student, but he must have skipped the irony classes. Why, after 12 years of Labour's stewardship, is there a need for a Fiscal Responsibility Act? Answer: because for much of that time, Downing Street's main residents were fiscally irresponsible. Having created the problem, the Prime Minister hopes to persuade us that he embodies the solution. He is trying the same trick with immigration. Britain's doors were flung open to anyone who fancied living here. Multiculturalism was forced on those who did not want, and were certainly not consulted about, an irreversible change to their communities. But now, sensing a backlash at the polls, not least because the population of these overcrowded islands is set to rise by more than 10 million in the next 20 years, with much of the growth fuelled by immigration, Mr Brown expects us to thank him for an illusion of remedial action. Even now, with the evidence of his blunders piling up like rubbish bags at a council tip, Mr Brown and his clique of sinister apologists claim sole possession of the keys to salvation. Listen to them for more than a minute, and you would be forgiven for inferring that Britain's budgetary mess is entirely the result of events elsewhere: a recession that blew here from abroad, a financial version of North American swine flu. This sidesteps the fact that between 1999 and 2007 (before the downturn started), the ratio of government spending to GDP rose from 41.8 per cent to 45.8 per cent. Today, it's way beyond that. In the last three years of Mr Brown's chancellorship, state income was at a record high, yet during that time he borrowed more than £100 billion. In company with voters (let's face it, Labour won three elections), he embraced a fantasy: that debt-fuelled consumption makes us better off. It doesn't, of course. Like tequila shooters, it simply makes us feel better off – until the juice runs out. Then… Crash! According to the Institute of Economic Affairs, the rise in government's non-productive spending since 2000 is likely to have cut the UK's sustainable growth rate by up to 1.7 per cent. "Such a drop in productive potential will have reduced investment returns, which may have led to a reduction in the supply of capital and contributed to the current crisis," the IEA says. Pollyannas who point to rising house prices and a more buoyant stock market as signs of swift recovery need a reality check. Rather than saving the world and rescuing Britain, the Brown binge has put us on the road to stagflation, a ruinous cocktail of inflation and unemployment. Professor Philip Booth, of Cass Business School, says that quantitative easing (printing money) is merely a short-term palliative. It delays, but does not eliminate the need for meaningful adjustment. He expects a new wave of discomfort to hit us in about 18 months, "when the Bank of England reins in QE and we find ourselves with a yawning budget deficit, higher labour market taxes and the long-term effects of increased government spending". Add to this Britain's destructive welfare maze and a shambolic higher education system, which continues to churn out unwanted and over-indebted graduates with next-to-useless degrees, and it is little wonder that Professor Booth envisages a domestic economy locked into "permanently lower growth and higher unemployment". It's back to the future: 1970s, here we come. Ever since its creation, New Labour's dream has been to make Britain more like continental Europe. Much of the political element of its goal has been achieved through the Lisbon Treaty, a shameful sell-out of national sovereignty. Next is the economic part of the deal: a sclerotic labour market, with private-sector employers dragged under by a ball and chain of bureaucracy. Box-tickers unite, we're all Europeans now. Given his willingness to blame others for our pain, it is easy to forget that in his early days at the Treasury, Mr Brown loved to parade his admiration for the United States. He cosied up to Alan Greenspan (later exposed as the bubble-blower in chief) and gave lectures on the virtues of US enterprise, without ever pointing out that job creation across the Atlantic relies as much on the stick of fear as it does on the carrot of reward. Let's hope that, in private at least, the Prime Minister is still keen to learn from the American way, because this week President Obama issued a warning about the dangers of government profligacy. In an interview with Fox News, he said: "It is important to recognise if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of recovery, then at some point people could lose confidence in the US economy in a double-dip recession." Gordon, are you listening? With public-sector borrowing approaching 14 per cent of national income, there are legitimate doubts about Britain's ability to finance its burden in a non-inflationary manner without massive capital inflows from overseas. "It is hard to see why such inflows should be forthcoming," says the IEA, "now that the British economy has become so highly taxed by international standards." The task of squaring this circle falls to Alistair Darling, who has precisely 19 days to come up with a pre-Budget report that looks more convincing than a wish-list stuck together with election slogans. Some of his Cabinet colleagues, notably the Balls duo, seem to view the art of political survival as nothing more sophisticated than bribing voters with other people's money. But if, as the Prime Minister invites us to believe, the public deficit is to be halved in four years, we would appreciate some details on where state spending is going to be cut, which taxes are going to be increased, by how much, and what the penalties will be for ministers who fall short. Dismissal? Fines? Jail? It's an attractive thought, but unlikely. My money is on a sinecure in Brussels.Liam Halligan
Liam Halligan's column tackles head on the key issues facing the British and global economy.
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has covered world politics and economics for a quarter century, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels. He is now International Business Editor in London.
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Sunday, 31 January 2010
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