The extent to which immigration is likely to play a decisive role in the forthcoming election is spelled out in a new poll published today. The poll, conducted by YouGov for Migrationwatch, was held in the vital 57 “marginal” seats which the Conservatives must win to gain a reasonable working majority; 43 are Labour held and 14 are held by the Liberal Democrats. The description below refers only to Labour held seats. The figures for Lib Dem held seats were very similar as shown in the tables. The poll found that only the economy is more important to voters in these seats. When asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote, 36% of all voters in Labour held seats named the economy while 13% named immigration. Taxation and the NHS were next at 8% and 6 % respectively. Among those intending to vote Labour at the next election, 42% named the economy. Immigration and the NHS came equal second with 9%. ‘The polling numbers tell us yet again that immigration is a matter of deep concern to a large majority of the population and that they are likely to respond very positively to parties that seriously address them,’ said Migrationwatch chairman, Sir Andrew Green. The poll found that 85% of people in Labour held marginal seats, were worried (with 49% very worried) about the population reaching 70 million by 2029 as official figures suggest. 75% of voters in these seats believe that the right level of net immigration to Britain was 50,000 a year or less (compared to 160,000 last year); indeed 49% wanted "one in, one out" or no immigration at all. The poll also found that 44% in Labour held marginals would be more likely (23% much more likely) to vote Conservative if David Cameron were to say that a Conservative government would reduce immigration to 50,000 or below in order to keep the UK population below 70 million. Only 5% in these seats were less likely (2% much less likely) to vote Conservative in these circumstances. In Lib Dem held seats the response was almost the same. In response to a similar question about Gordon Brown, 30% of voters in Labour marginals were more likely (13% much more likely) to vote Labour while 7% were less likely (2% much less likely) to vote for that party. Other questions revealed a generally negative view of immigration. Asked whether they agreed that the current level of immigration has an adverse effect on local public services such as schools and hospitals, 72% in Labour held seats agreed (38% strongly) while 19% disagreed. 54% of voters in Labour held seats thought that recent immigration had been bad for the economy while only 19% thought it had been good (20% had no view). 59% in labour held seats thought that recent immigration had been bad for British society as a whole while 18% thought that it had been good (with 19% saying neither). Said Sir Andrew: ‘These are very significant figures which show that the public are implacably opposed to a continuation of the mass immigration encouraged by this Government and are tired of having their concerns ignored. What they want are clear manifesto commitments to a dramatic reduction in the numbers.’ Note: The sample size was 2027 GB adults and the field work was conducted between 6 and 8 January. It was good to see an Archbishop give the political system a hefty kick last week. Lord Carey’s courageous intervention in support of the cross-party group calledBalanced Migration certainly caught the attention of the public and gave a huge boost to their campaign to get immigration down close to the level of emigration. He has moved the debate forwards. Instead of the usual accusations of racism there is now a more reasoned acceptance by the political class that current rates of immigration into Britain are unsustainable. They are stressing our public services and straining our social cohesion. Now we have David Cameron saying that he does not support the idea of a 70 million population. He wants to see immigration kept within the tens of thousands. This is a significant development. He does not make stray remarks on this subject. Indeed, he has hardly mentioned it since a major speech on population two years ago. Nobody, least of all Mr Cameron, challenges the reality that immigrants have made a major contribution to our society. It is the recent scale of immigration that is the problem. The latest population projections from the Office for National Statistics show that the UK’s population will reach 70 million in 20 years’ time and that just over two thirds of this increase will be because of immigration. The Government claims that it will never happen but ONS forecasts are much better than the Met Office. Over the past 50 years their 20-year projections have been accurate to 2.5 per cent. Ministers also claim that immigration is coming down, partly due to their Points Based System. But the fall is almost entirely due to more East Europeans going home while three quarters of the PBS are student applications, which are riddled with fraud. The only means open to the Government to limit population is to limit immigration. If the Tory leader is serious he will put it into his party's election manifesto – and it will be hugely popular.
Press Release
Immigration curbs could have a decisive impact on the election result Second only to the economy in key marginals
January 17, 2010‘If the Tories are serious about immigration it will be in the manifesto’
Commentary By Sir Andrew Green Chairman of Migration Watch UK The Times, London, 11 January, 2010
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
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