A letter is being circulated among Labour MPs this afternoon calling for a secret ballot in Gordon Brown's leadership. According to one MP who would like Brown to leave office, the letter is being coordinated by a number of rebels including the former cabinet ministers Charles Clarke, Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon. However, there are questions being asked as to whether any move can be made against Brown today, in the midst of heavy snow-fall as much of the UK has ground to a halt. "It may not be possible because of the snow," one MP said. "But the idea is that at the very least it forces Brown to give a commitment that if he stays on to fight the election he will not serve more than one year." Terrible timing, if true. Why do it on a day when Brown put in quite an impressive performance at PMQs? As on previous occasions, I doubt very much whether this will come to anything.Wednesday, January 06, 2010
RUMOUR ALERT: Mandelson Pulls Out of Newsnight?
Iain Dale 4:32 PM
I'm hearing unconfirmed rumours that Lord Mandelson has pulled out of the interview.
More in a moment...
UPDATE 4.39pm: A Newsnight insider has just told me: "We are unsure of his participation at the moment." So that's confirmed then...RUMOUR ALERT: Peter Robinson to Quit?
Iain Dale 3:16 PM
More, if I get it.
UPDATE: Irish political journalist Eamonn Mallie has just twittered...Peter Robinson to live and fight another day. Personal problems need utmost care and attention. That is the message. More to come.
UPDATE 4pm: My source tells me to watch the news at 6pm, which means that UTV (ITV) have the story, whatever it may be. BBC and other ob units are sat outside Dundela House (DUP HQ). "Personal problems need utmost care and attention" is the message we're going to hear apparently. There is more to Iris Robinson's recent resignation appaerently.
UPDATE 5.15pm: Politics.ie is reporting that Iris Robinson has been having an affair.Where's Richie Cunningham When You Need Him?
Iain Dale 1:39 PM
Just when you thought things couldn't get any more bizarre,Glen O'Glaza from Sky News reports that The Fonz (Henry Winkler) has just gone into Downing Street. Heyyyyyyyyyyy.
Oh, and isn't it strange that we have so far not heard a peep out of the Lord Mandelson, the Richie Cunningham of New Labour. It was he, readers will remember, who saved the PM in June, manned the phones and persuaded all sorts of senior Labour figures to stick with Brown. He was also never off the TV or radio.
Am I alone thinking that this time he might not lift a finger?Could Brown Call an Election This Week?
Iain Dale 1:02 PM
I'd consider going to see the Queen this afternoon and call an election.
Think about it. Why not?So What's It To Be, David Miliband?
Iain Dale 12:51 PM
So, are you going to have the cojones to do what you failed to do on the previous two occasions? No, thought not.
Kind regards
IainBrown Under Threat: This is Not 1983
Iain Dale 12:39 PM
11.45am Andrew Neil: Nick Robinson, I keep hearing rumours of a leadership challenge. I know nothing about all this stuff. Should I believe any of it?
Nick Robinson: No you shouldn't. It's rubbish and isn't going to happen.
Meanwhile, 50 minutes later, Andrew Neil reports that Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt have launched a coup attempt. Cue egg on face for Nick Robinson. Actually, it was more like a dozen eggs.
So, Hoon and Hewitt have sent out a letter to Labour MPs saying "We can't go on like this". An astonishing admission in itself as that is the Tories' new election slogan. It's reminiscent of Hazel Blears wearing the "Rocking the Boat" broch.
Older Labour MPs are comparing this situation to that of 1983 when there was a move to ditch Michael Foot in favour of Denis Healey. They didn't carry it through and went on to a crushing election defeat. However, it's a false comparison. There is no Denis Healey equivalent.Labour Rebels' Bad Timing
Iain Dale 12:24 PM
Brown Shades PMQs Exchanges
Iain Dale 12:24 PM
I would say that Gordon Brown just shaded the exchange, in part because he showed a passion which has not always been evident in his performances, but also because he had a couple of good, spontaneous oneliners. Cameron's "I love you, Darling" was probably the most memorable line of the exchange, though.
Nick Clegg, well, didn't really catch light at all.
David Cameron 6.5
Nick Clegg 4McFall Blames Brown for Lax Regulation
Iain Dale 11:50 AM
You could say that was stating the bleedin' obvious, and it is. But it is also a clear jibe at the man who set up the system of financial regulation, one Mr G Brown, soon to be late of this parish.Who Should Succeed Nick Robinson?
Iain Dale 10:21 AM
Who would you suggest for the job. If, that is, there were a vacancy. Which there's not.
Once we've got aa shortlist together, I'll start a poll. Only trying to save the BBC some expensive hedhunting fees...Jonah Heads South
Iain Dale 9:12 AM
That should guarantee another foot of the white stuff...
* An MP rings to tell me that last night in the House of Commons during the divisions, Speaker Bercow was seen chatting to any number of MPs who were keen to wish him a Happy New Year. A succession of Labour, LibDem and minority party MPs stopped by the Speaker's Chair to engage him in a chat. Only one Conservative MP did so, adding further fuel to the rumours that all is not well in relations between the Speaker and the Opposition.Is it Unthinkable That Labour Could Go Bust?
Iain Dale 9:00 AM
Income
Notionally was up from £32 million to £34 million, so good news, you would think. But not necessarily.
Of this £34 million there was:
So actual (useable) income was just over £26 million without the VAT (or almost £31 million with it)
In reality, overall:
The only major donors were (in addition to the conversions of loans):
If you take out the conversions of loans (£3.1 million) then they actually got £6.4 million of cash donations.
Expenditure
Up just over £1.4 million (£26.2 from £24.8 in 2007)
Staff costs up £1.4 million (but numbers were down, average 213 staff at end of 2007 and 208 staff at end of 2008)
£1million extra in ‘political activities’ – presumably extra campaigning activity
Net liabilities
Overall liabilities were down £6.4 million (not including pensions) from £18 million to £11.6 million. Overall debt stood at £17.5 million down from £18.9 million:
So, knowing all of that, let’s do a budget for 2010 ...
Income p.a.
Membership £4 million
Affiliations £8 million
Other £5 million
Donations £6.4 million *
Total £23 million
*This assumes same performance as 2008, ie donation income of £6.4 million
Expenditure p.a.
Running costs (no increase in staffing costs and no extra campaigning costs) £20 million
Interest on loans £1million
Loan repayment £2 million
Other £2 million
Total £24 million
This all assumes no General Election costs. General Election will cost an additional (roughly) £15 million. In other words Labour are are potentially £1 million short this year before they spend anything on a general election and assuming they raised at least £6.4 million extra donation income in 2009. We know from media reports that they got a couple of million recently, but the chances are that they have started 2010 with more debt than they started the year - certainly not any sort of war chest.
There is now a real possibility that Labour will finish the election campaign as a busted flush - both politically and financially. Ironically, it may be that Short Money could be what saves them in the end.
Wednesday, 6 January 2010
Last night, Jeremy Paxman announced at the ened of the programme that he would be joined by Peter Mandelson tonight.
I have just heard a rumour that Northern Irish First Minister Peter Robinson is about to announce his resignation.
Do you know what I would do if I were Gordon Brown?
Dear David,
Hilarious stuff on the Daily Politics.
James Macintyre has just broken a story that Labour rebels are circulating a letter this afternoon, in a final attempt to oust the Prime Minister.
Well that was a bit heated wasn't it? Both Gordon Brown and David Cameron were on good form, each with some good lines, some clearly rehearsed, but others not. Brown played his usual trick of turning it into Leader of the Opposition's Question Time, something the Speaker ought to have prevented but didn't. Brown tried to turn every question back on Cameron, which is a fair enough debating tactic, but doesn't do a lot to answer the perfectly legitimate questions put to him by the Leader of the Opposition.
Gordon Brown 7
John McFall, the chairman of the Treasury Select Committe, has just caused a minor frisson while giving evidence to the Scottish Parliament Economy Committee. He described the previous system of financial regulation as a "soft touch" and that the "FSA were deficient in prudential regulation".
In a profile of BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson for GQ Magazine, Ian Burrell suggests that Robert Peston is the favourite to succeed him in his job, should he decide to move on to pastures new after the election. Hmmm. I suspect Robinson will wish to stay for at least the first year or two of a new government (should there be one...), but if not, there will be quite a rush of applications to succeed him. In addition to Peston, James Landale and John Pienaar would both have good claims to the job from inside the BBC, while there will be the usual speculation about Adam Boulton. There are no obvious candidates from the world of print journalism.
* I'm told Jonah Brown will be visiting Hampshire this afternoon to spread good cheer among the emergency services who are doing their best to cope with the snow.
Today's Times story about Labour Party finances contains some interesting spin - not surprising in that it is partly written by Tom Baldwin. He quotes David Blunkett bemoaning the fact that Labour hasn't got as much money to spend on the election as the Conservatives. It's true. They haven't. But Labout's finances are in a far worse state than even this story makes out. And all you have to do is examine their 2008 accounts to understand why. I'm no accounting expert but even I can see that they are in very dire financial straits indeed, and their viability as a going concern after the election has to be questioned. Let's look at the figures...
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