| Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu’s Poll Puzzle Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 7 January, 2010 The latest Maagar Mohot poll commissioned by IMRA finds Israelis have a sophisticated take on what Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is trying to do. But despite this, most Israelis are not satisfied with what Netanyahu is doing. Let’s take a look at the results: Telephone poll of a representative sample of 510 adult Israeli Jews by Maagar Mohot Survey Institute on 4-5 January 2010 (survey error of +/- 4.5 percentage): What do you think are Binyamin Netanyahu’s true intentions in his decision to freeze construction in Judea and Samaria: The freeze is the first step before the evacuation of the settlements in Judea and Samaria or only a tactical move so that after 10 months it is possible to renew settlement construction in Judea and Samaria despite international pressure. 24% Freeze is the first step to evacuation of communities in Judea and Samaria 64% The freeze is only a tactical move so that after 10 months it is possible to renew settlement construction in Judea and Samaria despite international pressure. 12% Other replies/don’t know What do you think are Binyamin Netanyahu’s true intentions when he said that he is prepared to negotiate with Syria without preconditions: That Netanyahu is willing to withdraw from the Golan within the framework of an agreement with Syria, or that Netanyahu doesn't really have any intention to withdraw from the Golan Heights but it is important to him to appear as someone who, in any case, engages in peace talks. 19% That Netanyahu is willing to withdraw from the Golan within the framework of an agreement with Syria 75% That Netanyahu doesn't really have any intention to withdraw from the Golan Heights but it is important to him to appear as someone who, in any case, engages in peace talks. 06% Other replies/don’t know What do you think were Binyamin Netanyahu’s true intentions when in his Bar Ilan University address he called for the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state, while emphasizing that international agreements and international forces cannot really insure that such a Palestinian state would be demilitarized: That Netanyahu accepts the idea of an independent Palestinian state or that Netanyahu understands that it is impossible to guarantee that an independent Palestinian state would be demilitarized, and thus Netanyahu is prepared to agree only to a Palestinian entity that is not really an independent state? 27% That Netanyahu accepts the idea of an independent Palestinian state 57% That Netanyahu understands that it is impossible to guarantee that an independent Palestinian state would be demilitarized 16% Other replies/don’t know Now if most Israelis seem to have a good grasp on the intentions behind Binyamin Netanyahu’s moves, one would expect to see this also reflected in their satisfaction with his performance (this question was actually the first question in the poll): In general, are you satisfied with how Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has handled matters relating to Arab-Israeli affairs since coming into office? 60% Not satisfied 29% Satisfied 11% Other replies/don’t know What went wrong? The problem Israelis have with Netanyahu isn’t with his intentions. It’s a concern that his sophisticated maneuvering may suck us into doing things that he never intended to do. Look back at some of the results of the poll we commissioned 1-2 December 2009, just after the settlement housing construction freeze was announced: Will Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision to impose the freeze increase or reduce pressure on Israel to make additional concessions? 22% Reduce 56% Increase 17% No effect on the pressure 5% Don’t know and other replies Do you think that the freeze will actually last only ten months or if Netanyahu will continue the freeze indefinitely? 33% Just ten months 40% Continue indefinitely 27% Don’t know and other replies Again. The issue here isn’t whether or not Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has good intentions. It is if such sophisticated maneuvers as the selective settlement freeze and support for a “demilitarized state” will ultimately push Israel into places Netanyahu had no intention of getting us to. Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis) (Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava) Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730 INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il |
Friday, 8 January 2010
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