Friday, 5 February 2010

5 February 2010

Climate Change : Unpublished Letter to The Times

 Sir

Your report about the Copenhagen conference on alleged climate change made extensive use of the views of Lord Stern.  However, as Ian Plimer, professor of Earth Sciences at Melbourne University, and author of Heaven and Earth has pointed out, Lord Stern’s opinions have been shown by both scientists and economists to be little more than uninformed prejudice.

According to Professor Plimer, even from the first page, Stern’s Review was undermined by “basic errors of fact, exaggeration, misquotation, science created ex nihilio, and the fulfilment of pre-ordained dogma...And it gets worse...diagrams are re-drafted with different base lines...difficulties [with the science] are brushed under the carpet...It is a shabby political document” [see pages 478-9]. 

Plimer also points out that the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings were all warmer than our current levels of average temperature.  CO2 levels were also higher.  However, during at least one Ice Age CO2 levels were 15 times higher than today, which undermines the proposition that global warming and levels of CO2 are directly linked.

In the Cambrian period some 500 million years ago, CO2 levels were up to 20 times higher than today, and temperatures were some seven degrees centigrade higher as well.  There was no greenhouse gas catastrophe.  On the contrary, plant life evolved rapidly.

During the period when dinosaurs roamed the earth CO2 levels were three times those of today.  Plant life was abundant, which is thought to be one of the reasons why dinosaurs thrived for so long.

Climate change enthusiasts should consider the facts:

The warmest year since modern records began was 1934.  Temperatures rose from 1860 to 1875, cooled until 1890, rose to 1903, cooled to 1918, rose to 1941, cooled to 1976, rose to 1998 and have cooled since then.  So 1998 was not the warmest ever, just the most recent peak.  The fastest change in average temperature was between 1918 and 1941, and it was significantly faster than the increase which peaked in 1998.

The largest gas in the earth’s atmosphere by far is water vapour.   CO2 is a minor component of the earth’s atmosphere, at barely one-third of one percent. 

Levels of CO2 today are amongst the lowest they have been in the known history of this planet.  CO2 is absorbed naturally by water, the oceans, soil and all plant life.  It is odourless, tasteless and non-toxic. 

The largest and most significant source of CO2 is underwater volcanic eruptions.  Just one of the larger submarine volcanoes can, when active, emit more CO2 in a few days than all human activity might generate in a year.  There are numerous eruptions on the seabed every year, almost none of which are ever noticed or reported outside the scientific community.

Any impact of a higher level of CO2, such as it might be, is negatively logarithmic, not arithmetic.  In other words, the higher the figure the less the effect.  Double today's CO2 level, and no-one would notice any difference.

CO2 is not a pollutant.  On the contrary, it is an essential plant food.  It underpins all life on earth.  CO2 and oxygen, and plant and animal life, form a balanced circle of mutual interdependency.  CO2 underpins all life on earth, since plants produce the oxygen which all animal life (including us) needs to survive.  Why else do growers pump pure CO2 into their greenhouses if it is not to increase production? 

Ice-core research has demonstrated that any increase in average temperature levels lag any increase in CO2 levels by some 500 to 600 years.  So, even if there were a slow, long-term connection, there is no practical purpose in attempting to change CO2 levels with a view to controlling average global temperatures.  The proposition is scientifically absurd.

Even the UK’s own Met Office (despite its name, much given to unscientific climate scare stories) has recently admitted that global average temperatures have fallen since 1998.  And this has happened when there has been a significant increase in the burning of coal, oil and gas across the globe.  Some estimates put the increase over the last ten years or so at 25%.

There is a huge difference between looking after our environment and minimising pollution, and setting out on a crusade to "justify" more government control and taxation.  And that, I believe, is what our ruling elite are up to.  CO2 is merely their latest bogeyman.  

Ashley Mote

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