It's increasingly clear, with even the redoubtable Lord Heseltine now predicting a hung Parliament, that the smallest shifts of public perception could decide who the next prime minister is going to be. Perhaps Gordon Brown could even turn his alleged violent temper to his advantage; if he decked Lord Mandelson on the eve of the election, he could be swept back to power. In an election where these smallest traits of personality could make the difference, it's surprising that the main parties haven't yet rumbled the potency of the religious vote. Traditionally, our political leaders have held that faith is a private matter, more likely to damage than enhance electoral prospects. We're different from the United States, they reason, where the Christian vote can make or break presidencies. But while a powerful Bible Belt is unlikely to develop in the deep south of England, demanding tough anti-abortion laws and burning homosexualist literature, there is a religious vote in Britain and our party psephologists would do well to mark it, particularly at a time when any ideological constituency could make all the difference to an election result. Yesterday, Theos, which styles itself "the public theology think tank", published research which showed that our politicians, and particularly David Cameron, could be ignoring the religious vote at their peril. The survey, conducted by ComRes, shows that, while the poll lead for the Tories slips further into single figures, support for Conservatives from Christians has risen only from 38 to 40 per cent since 2005. This figure is important, because 48 per cent of Christians surveyed said that they are "absolutely certain" to vote, a figure that rockets to 61 per cent among Christians who say that their faith "is very important" to their lives. The national average of those "absolutely certain" to vote is 47 per cent. Intriguingly, the poll reveals that 57 per cent of British Muslims would vote Labour. Since Labour is the governing party that gave us the Iraq war, stigmatising anti-terror laws and Tony Blair as a Middle East peace envoy, that's somewhat surprising. But it makes more sense when you see that only 32 per cent of Muslims are "absolutely certain" to vote at all, which suggests that Labour's attempts to assimilate Muslims into political life has some way to go. In any event, our Muslim population is minuscule, whatever the pantywaist panic from those with most to gain from racial hysteria, such as the BNP, who claim we're about to be overrun by a new Caliphate. There are some 1.5 million Muslims in England and Wales, about 3 per cent of the population, and hardly any in Scotland. This is not a religious constituency that's going to swing it for Gordon Brown. Similarly and unsurprisingly, given the numbskull atheism declared by their leader Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrats poll best of the parties among those who claim they have no religion. Again, secularists and atheists represent the tiniest of constituencies when it comes to political activity; organisations such as the National Secular Society and the British Humanist Association make a lot of noise and post silly adverts for the nonexistence of a deity on the sides of buses, but they are very coy about their membership numbers. In truth, as a concrete body of voters motivated by an anti-religion ideology, they are less significant politically even than the Muslims. By contrast, the last Census in 2001 showed well over 70 per cent of the population describing themselves as Christian. Even I wouldn't claim to count all these among the faithful. Many will simply subscribe to the cultural notion that "this is a Christian country", seeing the Church of England as a significant part of our national identity, with the Queen at its head. Still others will claim Christianity as an inoculation against their Islamophobia. But that makes these voters more accessible politically than if they were a Bible-bashing, American-style God Squad. And it is a constituency to which Cameron could speak, as he faces leading the largest party in a hung Parliament, while Brown chases non-voting Muslims and Clegg entertains his trendy, atheist friends. Our politicians have been afraid to do so to date, imagining that they would upset a natural British reticence about our faith. But Theos's survey also shows that nearly two thirds of voters believe that religious leaders have a responsibility to speak out on political issues, while 63 per cent oppose the idea that the law should prevent people expressing their religious views at work. So it may now be time for Cameron to come out and express his religious views at work. Politics these days may be prescribed less by principle than by what will win those last vital votes. But voters may also be moving in mysterious ways. COMMENTS: 90 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7289494/General-Election-2010-David-Cameron-should-have-more-faith-in-the-Christian-vote.htmlGeneral Election 2010:
David Cameron should have more faith
in the Christian vote
The electorate may be moving in mysterious ways, suggests George Pitcher.
Tuesday, 23 February 2010
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