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Two major developments occurred in Somalia last week: a merger between the Ras Kamboni Brigade and al-Shabab
http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-shabab-declares-jihad-on-kenya-1/
and al-Shabab
http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-shabab-declares-jihad-on-kenya-1/
’s long-suspected but hitherto unmade declaration of open alliance with Al Qaeda
http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-1/
Both do not bode well for the survival of the beleaguered Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu.
There are three important considerations underpinning al-Shabab http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-shabab-declares-jihad-on-kenya-1/
decision to openly ally with Al Qaeda
http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-1/
First, it implies that the militia group does not fear the targeted US drone strikes http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/officials-suspected-us-drone-crashes-in-pakistan-1/
that will surely result from the announcement.
The perception is that the US military is currently spread thin in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere, and AFRICOM http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/africom-and-americas-global-military-agenda-1/
has not yet developed an operational capacity that can cripple al-Shabab http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/al-shabab-declares-jihad-on-kenya-1/
.
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