Labels: leaving POSTED BY WAT TYLER AT 11:42 AM COMMENTS (12) Labels: crime stats, Criminal Justice POSTED BY WAT TYLER AT 9:41 AM COMMENTS (21) WEDNESDAY, MARCH 10, 2010
More Big Lies
TUESDAY, MARCH 09, 2010
Bringing The Law Into Disrepute
Wednesday, 10 March 2010
Book now to beat the rush
As that man said, if you're going to tell lies make sure they're big ones. And this morning we've been treated to a further generous helping of whoppers from the Great Helmsman.
Once again he claims he can simultaneously keep the economy growing through more public spending, protect the NHS schools and police, sort out the deficit (which BTW resulted entirely from global forces beyond his control) through taxing the rich and other undeserving elements, and deliver fairness for all.
He presents a slew of going green and scaly false alternatives including:
OK, I made up one of those - but you'll have difficulty spotting which one.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, Fitch Ratings warn that they are"uncomfortable with the UK's fiscal adjustment path", and that HMG must"outline more credible fiscal consolidation programmes over the coming year, given the pace of fiscal deterioration and the budgetary challenges they face in stabilising public debt".
Translation - Brown's fiscal plans are the fast track to catastrophe.
True, he's now screwed up the courage to announce a pay freeze for senior civil servants, judges, and NHS staff. But those savings will be shrapnel in the giant scheme of things. They fall miles short of the £12bn pa savings from a 2 year blanket freeze we recommended here - a freeze the Helmsman would never be able to impose without IMF insistence because of Labour's financial dependency on the public sector unions.
And yesterday's trade figures were historically awful. Since the beginning of 2008, manufacturing export volumes are down by 17% against only a 10% decline on the import side.
Monthly trade balance
So much for export led recovery. And so much for the value of sterling (aka our cost of living).
The truth is that Brown has presided over Britain's worst economic and financial meltdown in living memory. Even knowing about the power of Big Lies, it beggars belief that he wants to make the economy and his claim to be our economic saviour the centrepiece of his election campaign. Surely he can't possibly win on that basis.
And yet... and yet...
Yesterday, Tyler lunched with an old City colleague who has now almost completed his preparations to leave the UK on 7th May. He has cleared the documentation and other formailties required for his family to set up in their new country, and has already arranged accommodation. If Brown gets back, they're off.
He asked Tyler not to disclose their destination in case it triggers a stampede. So we'll let you know once they're safely settled... although then again, maybe only after the Tylers have joined them.
Tyler's friend says that the really depressing thing about the election is not that Brown is making ludicrously bogus claims about his record and his competence. It's not even that the BBC reports those claims as if they're gospel (as it did again today on the 8am R4 news). It's the fact that the British electorate look like they may fall for it. As far as he can see, that's the road Greece has already travelled, and he doesn't want to be on it.
We're back to a question we've raised before - are we as an electorate actually ready to face the reality of our predicament, or are we going to fall for another round of spin and lies, and blunder along in a daze until we actually fall over the cliff edge? Do we literally need to see the IMF roll up in their armoured limos before we'll accept the need for serious action on public spending? Do we alwaysneed a Dunkirk before we act?
A hung parliament... Brown hanging on in No 10... our future prosperity hanging by a thread. And then one day soon, wham! Sterling collapses, gilt yields double, and the panzer divisions mass just 20 miles across the Channel.
Brown begs the Germans for help. They give him the same two-digit reply they gave Lamont in 1992. Brown curls up in a tight ball under the self-same desk Wislon hid under in 1976. Darling nervously calls Washington. The IMF jet in to demand huge across the board spending cuts - in 1976 they only wanted 4%, but this time it's 20%. Darling takes over as PM and tries to buy time by increasing the standard rate of income tax to 30% - as "a purely temporary measure in these extraordinary times".
Well, good luck.
And please be assured that Tyler and his friend will be following progress closely on CNN.
Free to kill
So let's get this straight.
At God knows what expense, Jamie Bulger's killer was given a new identity and freed into society after just seven years simply because our costly forces of law and order decided he was a reformed character and no longer a danger to us. Only it turns out he wasn't.
Ashleigh Hall's killer was a highly dangerous rapist with a long string of convictions for violent sex offences, who was freed to wander among us simply because our costly forces of law and order decided that putting him on the Sex Offenders Register would be enough to keep us safe. Only it turns out it wasn't.
For many years, our Prog Con "justice" establishment have been assuring us that the "blue rinse brigade" like Tyler are wrong and that violent crime has been falling. Only it turns out it hasn't.
This morning we learn that violent crime has been going through the roof. New research from the independent House of Commons Library (but not yet online for mere taxpayers to see) shows that violence against the person increased from 618,417 in 1998 to 887,942 last year - a massive 44% rise.
As BOM readers will know (eg see this blog) there are two ways of measuring the overall incidence of crime. The government's preferred measure is the British Crime Survey (BCS), and that records an apparent 40% fall in crime over the same period. But the BCS is no more than an elaborate opinion poll, and suffers from all the usual infelicities (and spin) of polling. Most of us would prefer to rely on the actual police recorded crime stats, which is what this new research uses.
Unfortunately, the police stats have been subject to two changes in recording and compilation methodology since Labour came to power. That has been very convenient for the Prog Con lobby (such as the BBC's Rev Easton), because it has allowed them to focus their coverage on the opinion poll, and deride bigots like Tyler for ignoring "the facts".
The significance of this new research is that it has been able to adjust the police stats for the most recent of the methodological changes, and give us a consistent comparison over the whole period from 1998. (Note too that the adjustment is taken from figures supplied by the Home Office - it hasn't simply been plucked from the air).
So, a convicted killer was released among us despite still being a danger. A convicted serial rapist was released to kill another innocent victim. Violent crime is rising all around us. And our so-called "Justice" Secretary justifies his own silence on a matter of grave public concern on the basis that anything else "would not be in the public interest".
Well, mate, excuse me, but we are the friggin' public, and we feel quite grown up enough to decide for ourselves what's in our interest.
The truth is that our criminal justice industry treats the public with contempt. We may pay £19bn pa for the police, £7bn pa for the courts and their lawyers, and £5bn pa for our prisons, but those that run them think they are perfectly free to pursue their own agendas. Instead of running things as we'd like, they spend hundreds of millions - of our friggin' money - trying to snow us with propaganda that crime is mainly inside our own heads. Underneath those blue rinses.
But there is a terrible consequence brewing up. When people lose confidence in the official justice system, they start looking to alternatives. Vigilante justice for Jamie Bulger's killers would be just the start.
PS Yes, I realise the Prog Con are suggesting that Ashleigh Hall would still be alive if the police had done their job properly. If they'd not allowed registered sex offender Chapman (picture) to "slip off their radar", then all would have been well. But in reality, the police are not capable of keeping track of these people. Someone determined to slip the net can do so. Which is why we should pursue a failsafe policy of keeping people like Chapman locked away. Most of us care far more about keeping the public safe, and maintaining public confidence in the justice system, than we do about the vague theological possibility of personal redemption.
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