"Close to undetectable" - by Richard... Monday, April 26, 2010

"Close to undetectable" - by Richard... Monday, April 26, 2010

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/

Although on forums and in comments sections, the "better safe than sorry" brigade still has a voice, the full extent of the over-reaction on the volcano ash debacle is now becoming apparent. 

From The Daily Telegraph (as a separate story in the print edition), today's Daily Mailand the Mirror, we learn that Jim McKenna, the CAA's head of airworthiness has admitted that the plume of ash during the recent shutdown had often been "close to undetectable".

Prof Stephen Mobbs, director of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, who was responsible for carrying out test flights, says that the highest levels detected above Britain were around 300 micrograms in "patches". But, said McKenna, "It's obvious that at the start of this crisis there was a lack of definitive data".

All the reports mention the absence of the BAe-146 in the early stages, as did The Sunday Timesyesterday, and it is by now evident that the lack of aviation assets to carry out physical sampling contributed significantly to the length and extent of the shut-down.

That said, with the help of readers, I have pretty much sorted the confusion over the Dornier 228 flights. It now seems pretty clear that it did fly on the evening of the 15 April, and again on the 16th, when it may have been in Scotland.

On the Friday evening, it was in Cranfield in Bedforshire, through Saturday, being fitted with advanced Laser measuring equipment (LIDAR), but it is not clear (in my mind at least) whether if flew operationally on the Saturday.

The aircraft certainly flew on the Sunday, and it appears that the test flight in the BA 747 with Willie Wash on board was preceded by the Dornier – at least as far as Cardiff. The 747 went on over the Irish Sea to Ireland, while the Dornier turned right and flew to Prestwick. It then flew again on the Monday.

What is more than interesting is the early statement from FAAM issued on Friday 16 April, which stated categorically that the BAe-146 would not be flying to investigate the ash cloud - "primarily because the aircraft is currently on the ground with all instruments removed immediately prior to a repaint." There is also reference to the Dornier being "highly capable".

Clearly though, it was not capable enough and, even with the best will in the world, the aircraft cannot be in two places at once. For a slow, flying turbo-prop with a limited ceiling, characterising the whole extent of the ash cloud, which at times was claimed to be covering the whole of the UK, was an impossible job. 

Thus, at some time, the decision must have been made to reactivate the BAe-146. It cannot be stressed enough what an extraordinary decision that was. With the aircraft already stripped down, it must have required a massive – and expensive – effort to get it back flying so soon. This suggests an element of panic, and in high places. Authorisation for that spend and the allocation of the resources needed could not have come from line managers.

Alongside this was the argument about ash tolerances, but this seems more and more to be a red herring, an alibi to justify the prolonged closure and to cover up the lack of data. If the cloud was "undetectable" in some areas, then it was manifestly safe to fly. This issue, we will have to explore in another post.

Whatever else, though, this issue must not be allowed to fade away without a commitment to the fullest possible (and public) inquiry. There are huge issues involved here, not least the competence of quango queen Deirdre Hutton and the senior staff of the CAA. If the Tories had any political sense (joke), they would already be demanding such an inquiry. But then, as we have learned to our cost, the Tories rarely indulge in real politics.

ICELAND'S REVENGE THREAD

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Damned if we do ... - by Richard...

A fascinating piece in The Washington Post is headed, "Indo-Pakistan proxy war heats up in Afghanistan."

"Across Afghanistan," we are told, "behind the obvious battles fought for this country's soul, a shadow war is being quietly waged. It's being fought with spies and proxies, with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid money and ominous diplomatic threats."

The piece continues: "The fight pits nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan against one another in a battle for influence that will almost certainly gain traction as the clock ticks down toward America's military withdrawal, which President Barack Obama has announced will begin next year."

Sadly, I was writing this in October last year and, more recently here, here and here. And, as the WaPo is beginning to recognise, this is the dominant dynamic in the war in Afghanistan.

But, as it stands, resolving the Indo-Pakistani conflict is not politically possible – not least because none of the Western nations are prepared to invest the political capital and, specifically, because no one is prepared to confront India. Thus, it is head-in-the-sand time, leaving a gaping wound to fester.

Resolving this issue will not, in itself, resolve the Afghan conflict but, without a resolution, the conflict cannot be ended. All the rest is detail, underpinning yet again the simple, unvarnished truth – we cannot prevail. Yet, politically, it is hard to see how we can engineer a rapid departure.

Furthermore, should the coalition forces depart, the proxy war might just become overt confrontation, putting those two nuclear powers at odds with each other. And the other side of Afghanistan is Iran - also supported by India – a country with nuclear ambitions. If that situation is mishandled (more than it is at the moment), we could be seeing a lot of mushrooms in the region, and I don't mean fungi.

From our stance, it appears that we have started something we don't know how to end and, even if we did, we do not have the wherewithal to achieve it. We are thus damned if we withdraw, and damned if we do not. The only consolation, I suppose, is that if the whole thing does go belly up, global warming will seem a very minor problem.